One for the oil folks. Reuters carried the snippet on Thursday that the OPEC+ group's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) panel will hold an online meeting on August 4, a day later than had been scheduled earlier.Reuters cite two unnamed OPEC+ sources.---The...
November 2024 could be a big month – US and UK (?) elections
The date of the US Presidential election is, of course, locked in for 5 November nexzt year. And it could be a busy month if reports overnight are accurate:UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is eyeing holding the UK’s next general election in November 2024 Bloomberg with...
PBOC set the reference rate 400+ lower than expect – yuan traders not fooled a second day
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1456 (vs. estimate at 7.1965)
People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading...
ICYMI – the US Leading Economic Index data fell for its 15th consecutive month in June
The Conference Board publish their Leading Economic Index (LEI), the June result was out on Thursday, at -0.7%expected -0.6% prior -0.6%15th fall in a rowweakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims cited as reasons for the fallReuters have the...
MUFG see support for the AUD ahead of an RBA August rate hike (hike is not a done deal)
MUFG on the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian dollar. Analysts there rightly point out that Q2 inflation data next week (due July 26) is a key input for the Bank's policy decision (due August 1): a rate hike is not a done deal and a much softer CPI print...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1965 – Reuters estimate
Yesterday's reference rate was set more than 700 points from the expected, on the side of a much stronger yuan. I did a double take on the rate:USD/CNH longs were slammed:---People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of...
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USD/JPY is dribbling a little lower after the Japanese June inflation figures
USD/JPY is sliding a little, its moving under 140.00 more convincingly following the inflation data a few minutes ago:Japan June CPI, headline +3.3% y/y (expected +3.5%)As noted in that post, both core measures were in line with expectations. All three measures remain...
UBS targets S&P 500 to 4,400 in 12 months
UBS targets for the S&P 500 are:4100 for December 2023then to 4400 for June of 2024UBS is looking for the numbers citing the economy being more resilient than anticipated. Say that Q2 should be the quarter when earnings growth bottoms. Profits for the S&P 500...
Japan June CPI, headline +3.3% y/y (expected +3.5%)
Central Banks <!--> --> <!--> Eamonn Sheridan Thursday, 20/07/2023 | 23:30 GMT-0 20/07/2023 | 23:30 GMT-0 --> <!--> The data is:The two core measures are both as expected. USD/JPY is barely changed. These numbers really shouldn't shift the...
China flagged more economic support measures on Thursday – details very light
I posted yesterday on (more) proposed measure to stick a floor under the property sectorAdding in some other measures flagged Thursday. China's Ministry of Industry and Information said it was drafting plans to boost development in 10 key industries, including steel...
UK data – Gfk Consumer Confidence (July) -30 (expected -26, prior -24)
This is the first decline for the indicator since January, comes in at -30expected -26, prior -24 "Reality has started to bite and, as people continue to struggle to make ends meet, consumers will pull back from spending," Joe Staton, GfK's client strategy director...
Bank of America have a Q3 ‘pain trade’, stronger yen & lower NASDAQ a large part
Bank of America strategists in a weekly commentary, they highlight a new pain trade as lower bond yieldslower Nasdaqstronger yenSaying:everyone is minting the same long T-bills, long Nasdaq barbelland thus the biggest Q3 pain trade is lower yields, lower Nasdaq, plus...
Former Japan Yen intervention boss – BOJ won’t tweak yield curve control (YCC) next week
Mitsuhiro Furusawa is a former Japan vice minister of finance for international affairs. He now heads the Institute for Global Financial Affairs at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.The vice finance minister for international affairs is sometimes referred to as Japan's...
BoA has cut its forecast for European economc growth, citing slower China economy
I posted yesterday on Bank of America jumping on the less enthusiastic China economy train, analysts at BoA joining plenty of others in announcing downgrades:BoA analysts cited soft data from China during the second quarter of this year for the cut. And also say that...
JP Morgan bullish gold and silver (cite Fed hike cycle ending), short term bull Brent oil
A couple of snippets from JP Morgan forecasts. The backdrop to the precious metals views at JPM is the approaching likely end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike cycle, and analysts at the bank continue to be structurally bullish on both gold and...
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 20 Jul: The USD rebounds after stronger claims. Yields up.
The AUD is ending the day as the strongest of the majors. The CHF is the weakest. The USD is just behind the AUD as the strongest today. USD is mostly stronger todayThe USDs move higher was driven by lower initial jobless claims and a sharp rise in US yields. Initial...
Goldman Sachs forecasts a shallow and subdued depreciation for the US dollar into year end
This summary is via the folks at eFX. For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here. Key Takeaways 1. Shallow and Subdued Dollar Depreciation: • Despite recent...
Dow industrial average up for the 9th consecutive day. That’s the good news
The good news today in the US stock market is the Dow Industrial Average closed higher for the 9th consecutive day. The bad news is the Nasdaq index tumbled over 2% today. The S&P also moved lower.The final numbers are showing:Dow industrial average rose 163.97 or...