High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
TD think the USD has further scope to fall – 4 factors
TD is looking for the US dollar to fall further. Analysts at the bank say that after the most recent "positive" inflation report, the USD experienced a dramatic slide. And say that since the positioning-driven surge in May, they have been recommending USD shorts, and...
ICYMI – Morgan Stanley cut its China 2023 and 2024 growth forecasts
Morgan Stanley slashed its China 2023 economic growth forecast to 5.0% from 5.7% previouslyand for 2024 to 4.5% from 4.9% previouslyThe change came after the weak data from China on Monday:Morgan Stanley said the GDP report was weakChina's government is being slow to...
Economic calendar in Asia Tuesday, 18 July 2023 – RBA July meeting minutes
It's a very light data calendar in the Asia session ahead. At 0130 GMT, 9.30pm US Eastern time, we get the minute of the RBA meeting earlier this month. The decision was on hold:The minutes will be eyed for further clues on the potential for a rate hike at next...
Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 18 July 2023
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Empire Fed improves, US dollar climbs then fades
Markets:Gold flat at $1955US 10-year yields down 1.3 bps to 3.80%WTI crude oil down $1.33 to $74.10S&P 500 up 0.5%CAD leads, NZD lagsThe dollar strengthened early in the day on a strong Empire Fed and Yellen floating more China inbound investment controls. Flows...
Nasdaq climbs above Friday’s high in 1% gain
The one-way trade in the Nasdaq since May has extended further, with the index rising 1.0% to the best levels since April 2022.Intel is leading the way today with a 4% gain despite incoming China export controls on semiconductors. Tesla and Activision-Blizzard are...
EIA sees a slight dip in US share production in August
The EIA sees US share regions producing 9.399 million barrels per day in August, down 18,000 barrels per day after a 5,900 bpd rise in July.The evidence continues to mount that we're at the peak of US shale supply and that it will be tough to sustain later in the...
Russell 2000 rises to the highest since February
The Russell 2000 is particularly strong today, aided by bank stocks, industrials and technology.Typically, the Russell tracks global growth sentiment but it's headed in the opposite direction to copper and oil today as the world frets about China but cheers on a...
Selling pressure takes bitcoin below $30,000 but the range-bottom holds
Bitcoin hit at session low in the past hour, briefly trading below $30,000. It has since bounced back above that level though as the range since mid-June holds.Bitcoin jumped from $26,000 to $31,500 after Blackrock and several others filed applications to list bitcoin...
Putin says response being prepared for Crimea bridge attack
The Kerch bridge was once again attacked today, this time likely by water-based drones. The automotive part of the bridge was damaged while the rail bridge was left intact. It's a critical logistics transportation hub from Russia to Crimea to support the war. Two...
US dollar gives back gains with tech stocks bid
The US dollar saw some positive flows early in New York trading but it has given them back despite rising long-term yields. AUD/USD (below) fell as low as 0.6788 but has rebounded to 0.6820 while the euro fell to 1.1204 before bouncing to 1.1232.The main event this...
Goldman Sachs now sees only a 20% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months
Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius has cut the chances of a US recession to 20% from 25% previously."The probability of a U.S. recession has fallen further as both recent data and ongoing fundamentals point to rapid — and mostly painless — disinflation from here," he...
Credit Agricole: EUR/USD overbought and expensive; short-term fair-value at 1.0957
EURUSD dailyCredit Agricole views EUR/USD as expensive relative to its estimated short-term fair value. The bank also notes that the euro is the most overbought currency in G10 FX, according to its positioning data. Additionally, the EUR nominal effective exchange...
US semiconductor association asks Biden not to impose more China sactions
The US-based semiconductor industry association has called on the Biden administration to refrain from further sanctions on US microchip sales to China.The association called for the the restrictions to be narrow and clearly defined. Here is the statement:The...
AUDUSD has a unique symmetry on the hourly chart. Want to know what it looks like?
The AUDUSD has a unique symmetry that has retracement levels of the sharp move lower in June equal to the retracement levels of the sharp move higher in July in the pair (you have to see it on the video to believe it). The AUDUSD pair did move up last week and tested...
US microchip curbs on China aim to halt Chinese innovation
A New York Times article from last week on the US efforts to curb Chinese access to microchips is eyeopening. ‘An Act of War’: Inside America’s Silicon Blockade Against China is the title of the article and it's not overstated. It outlines how on Oct 7 of last year,...
Mixed trading in the major US stock indices to begin the trading week
The major indices last week rose with the NASDAQ leading the way. The Dow industrial average gained and is working on a 5 day winning streak. The S&P and NASDAQ moved lower on Friday snapping therefore day streak to the upside.Today, the Dow is lagging along with...
The GBPUSD corrects to the downside. The rising 100 hour MA is catching up to the price.
The GBPUSD continues to probe to the downside after testing a key target on the daily chart near 1.31465 on Friday. The high price reached 1.3142 and backed off.The modest corrective move to the downside on Friday and again today has allowed for the 100-hour moving...
EURUSD is stuck in the mud. A 35 pip trading range begs for a range extension.
The EURUSD is stuck in the mud. The low to high trading range is only 35 pips. That is about half of the 70 or so PIP trading range seen over the last 22 trading days (around a month of trading). The small range begs for a range extension today. Be on the lookout for...