Via a note from analysts at KiwiBank, their outlook for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.In (very) brief summary from the note:The RBNZ ... cash rate was left unchanged at 5.5%.The OCR track however was more hawkish than we had hoped. We were surprised to see the...
China cut only one Loan Prime Rate, and less than expected – here’s why
This snippet from UBS on yesterday's disappointment from the People's Bank of China:China cut its one year loan prime rate, but less than markets had anticipated. For those bewildered by the plethora of policy tweaks in China, it is best to look at the bigger picture....
Brent – ANZ on signs of oil supply tightness easing
A handy snapshot summary from ANZ on oil supply:signs of supply tightness easingIraq’s oil minister, Hayyan Abdul Ghani, is reported to be planning the resumption of oil exports through the Ceyhan terminal. Output has been curtailed by a dispute over payments between...
UBS S&P500 forecast is as high as 4700, base case
A snippet projection from UBS on the benchmark S&P500 index.Analysts at the bank's base case forecast for the index is to 4,500 in December 2023 and then 4,700 in June 2024. Citing:second-quarter reporting season likely marked the trough in year-over-year earnings...
TD preview Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech – higher for longer
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chair Powell is speaking this week at the Kansas Fed's Jackson Hole symposium.Previews posted:Previewing the week ahead in financial markets. TL;DR version is NVDA earnings vs. PowellGoldman Sachs is not expecting a strong signal...
Crypto exchange Coinbase has taken an equity stake in stablecoin company Circle
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 21 Aug. US 10 year yield rises to near 16 year highs.
The start to the trading week was void of any economic news (or central bank comments for that matter) in the US session. The Jackson Hole Summit later this week, will provide the fireworks with Chair Powell's speech scheduled for Friday at 10:05 AM ET, highlighting...
ICYMI – Japan’s Ministry of Finance to raise its assumed long-term interest rate to 1.5%
The news hit during the Japanese afternoon on Monday, Justin had it posted:The current assumed rate is 1.1% this fiscal year, the MoF is to boost it to 1.5%. So, there is movement in Japan, in mindset if not on BoJ policy just yet. Japanese media, Kyodo, had the...
US equities post impressive gains as anticipation builds towards Nvidia earnings
NVDA stock dailyUS stocks stumbled midway through the day today as 10-year yields broke the October highs and rose to the highest levels since 2007. But even that couldn't keep them down for long as anticipation builds about Nvidia's earnings this week. The company...
Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 22 August 2023
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Economic calendar in Asia on Tuesday, 22 August 2023 is empty
The data agenda applicable to major FX is non-esixtent for the session ahead. there is consumer confidence data from South Korea due at 2100 GMT. Also, I have notification that Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin is speaking at 2130 GMT (5.30pm US...
AUDUSD heads into the US close with the price testing a key hourly MA
The AUDUSD has seen up-and-down price action in trading today. The earlier session high stalled against its 100-hour moving average. Sellers leaned against the moving average level (it's currently at 0.64185). The subsequent price low in the US session reached a...
Why the market is having a major rethink on China
Xi Jinping sleeping (AI image)What is happening in the bond market?Treasury yields are reaching fresh cycle highs even with Fed hiking probabilities unchanged. Wonks are talking about r* again in a sure sign they have no idea what's happening. After all, if there's a...
WTI crude oil settles down $0.53 at $80.12
The price of crude oil futures is settling down $0.53 at $80.12. The high price for the day reached $81.75. The low price is now extending to new session lows in post-settlement trading at $79.97. Technically, the high price moved up toward its 200-hour moving average...
S&P index trades above and below unchanged today
The S&P index is trading back in positive territory after giving up earlier gains of 25.88 points and moving into negative territory by -9.42 points.Technically, the low price from Friday stalled within a swing area between 4325 and 4338, and rebounded modestly...
EURUSD chops back higher after buyers and sellers take their shots w/ neither hitting.
The EURUSD buyers took the pair's price above its 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart below) earlier today, but ran into resistance near a swing area between 1.0911 and 1.09179. When the price moved back below the 100-hour moving average 1.08876, that...
The sellers are in control in gold. What would keep sellers in full control going forward?
The price of gold has been trending to the downside sing the end of August. There was one sharp correction around August 6th, but sellers leaned and the price rotated back lower. Gold buyers had their shot above the 100 hour MASince then, the price has stayed mostly...
European equity close: Small gains as the week gets underway. Italy leads
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
New York Fed finds Americans expect record income to start new jobs
NY Fed finds pay needed to accept a new job at $78,645 up from $72,873 a year agoOut of those employed four months ago, 91.4% still maintain their jobs, showing a marginal dip from 91.8% in July 2022.Only 19.4% reported looking for a job recently, down from 24.7% last...
Crude oil retraces gains and trades back toward 100 hour moving average support
The price of crude oil last week, came down to test a key target at $79.00. For 3 straight days (W-F), the price of the crude oil set lows within $0.05 of that $79.00 target and stalled the fall. The price rebounded into the close on Friday and closed higher on the...