George Saravelos is global co-head of FX research at Deutsche Bank. This from a note to clients on the US dollar. I haven't seen the note so this from news wire reports about the place. USD to weaken through 2024 and into 2025EUR/USD forecast is 1.15 by end-2023, and...
Oxford Economics says a US recession is likely, S&P 500 unlikely to climb above 2022 high
Oxfor Economics on the US economy and benchmark index S&P500, in brief:US recession still looks likelythe Fed's chances of creating a soft landing for the U.S. economy is fuelling bullish sentiment see an economic slowdown starting later this year, this will stop...
JPM forecast Brent oil to $86 at the end of 2023
JP Morgan on oil, expecting the price to rise. JPM pointing to inventories beginning to draw down as a key factor now at the amrgin. see Brent higher, in the $80s, during the July - September quartersee Brent finishing the year at $86-Overnight re Russian production...
ICYMI – China’s exports and imports in June fell more than expected
An ICYMI if you are watching developments in China's economy. Another sign of softness was the June trade data released yesterday:China's exports fell In June month at their fastest since the onset of the pandemic three years ago. Weaker global demand was cited in...
Australia media report that Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe will no be reappointed
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe's term finishes up in September. He is seeking reappointment. Local public broadcaster ABC says he will not be reappointed. The Australian Federal government Cabinet is expected to meet this morning to decide on his replacement....
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 13 Jul: USD continues its drop helped by PPI
The USD fell sharply to the downside today with the greenback falling the most vs the NZD (-1.59%), the AUD (-1.49%) and the GBP (-1.15%). The declines were fueled by more tame inflation data. Pipeline producer prices inched up 0.1% in June, with the annual increase...
JP Morgan maintains a bearish outlook on EUR/USD, targeting 1.05 (before 1.2 in 2024)
JP Morgan EUR/USD, Key Points: 1. European Growth Data Loses Momentum: The weakening trend in European growth data continues to intensify and extend, manifesting increasingly in hard data and bolstering JP Morgan's bearish narrative on the euro. Despite this, the...
NZD traders – it’s a New Zealand market holiday on Friday, 14 July 2023
It's a public holiday in New Zealand today, Friday, 14 July 2023. Local markets are closed. Liquidity in the NZD is limited at the best of times and will be further thinned out today. NZD/USD has been trading in a similar pattern to all major XXX/USD, i.e. gaining...
NASDAQ index leads the charge. Major indices up for the 4th consecutive day.
The NASDAQ index continued to lead the stock indices higher. The Dow industrial average is lagging but still close higher for the 4th consecutive day.Top sectors in the Dow included Communication services, up 2.32%, Technology, up 1.5% and Consumer discretionary,...
Economic calendar in Asia 14 July 2023 – Federal Reserve speaker (Waller)
It's a quiet data agenda ahead for the session but we will be getting comments from Fed hawk Waller:Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook before the Money Marketeers of New York University. The timing, 2245 GMT / 6.45 pm NY...
Trade ideas thread – Friday, 14 July 2023
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Some not so good news on labor/inflation: SAG-AFTRA go on strike
Approximately 160,000 television and movie actors, members of the SAG-AFTRA union, are set to strike, joining screenwriters who started their strike in May. This results in the first industrywide shutdown in Hollywood in 63 years. Actors' demands echo those of the...
NASDAQ index up over 200 points or 1.55%
Nasdaq up over 1.5% on the dayThe NASDAQ index continues to march higher. It is currently trading up 217.29 points or 1.56% at 14136.28. For the trading week, the index is up close to 3.5%. That represents the largest gain since March 13, 2013 trading week.Looking at...
AUDUSD approaches its highest level going to February 2023
The AUDUSD is racing higher this week with a gain in the pair of 2.96% . The run to the upside now has the pair testing some key levels including the 61.8% of the 2023 range, and the June 2023 high at 0.68899 to 0.68989. If the price is able to get above - and stay...
WTI crude oil futures settle at $76.89
WTI crude oil futures are settling at $76.89. That's up $1.14 or 1.5%.The price is settling near the high for the day at $76.96. The low for the day is $75.32. Looking at the daily chart, the price is approaching its 200-day moving average at $77.33. The last time the...
Feds Bullard is stepping down in August
Fed's Bullard to leave the FedSt. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard is announcing that he will be stepping down in August (August 14). He will become the Dean at Purdue University's Mitchell E. Daniels, Jr., School of Business. Bullard is not a voter in 2023. The next...
USDCAD makes new 2023 lows (low going back to Sep 2022). What keeps the sellers in control
The USDCAD broke below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the October 21 low at 1.3132, and the June 2023 low at 1.31157. The break led to a move to a new low for the year and low going back to September 2022 at 1.3106. USDCAD falls below 50%However, the price has...
US treasury auctions off $18B or 30 year bonds at a high yield of 2.91%
High yieldWI (when-issued) yield at the time of the auction 3.890%Tail 2.0 bpsBid to cover 2.43X versus 6 month average of 2.39X.Tail 2.0 basis points vs 6 month average of -0.2 basis pointsDirects (a measure of domestic demand) 20.13% vs 6 month average of...
New highs for the EURUSD. There is some room between price and 200 week MA now.
EURUSD putting some room between price and 200W MAThe EURUSD is running to the upside, making another new high for the year and high going back to March 2022. The high just reached 1.12085. In the process, the pair is running further away from its 200-week MA at...
For what it’s worth,Goldman partner gives the S&P a better than fighters chance of new ATH
John Flood, a partner at Goldman Sachs in a note to clients on Wednesday after the CPI data commented that "For the 1st time in 2023, we are currently being asked by multiple clients if we think the S&P 500 is on track to clock an ATH before year-end". Flood...