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The EURUSD started the trading date near highs for the day and also testing its falling 200 hour moving average and downward sloping trendline on the hourly chart below). The level came near 1.09000 level.The ADP report showed a eye opening 497K new jobs with leisure...
Consensus estimate +225K (range +110K to +288K)Private +200KFebruary +311KMarch +236KApril +190KMay +339KUnemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.6% vs 3.7% priorParticipation rate prior 62.6% Prior underemployment U6 6.7%Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.2% y/y vs +4.3%...
The Price of WTI crude futures are settling at $71.80. That's just one penny higher than yesterday's settlement level at $71.79. The high price it today it reached $72.34. The low was at $70.22.Oil prices experienced volatility due to various factors. Initially,...
Powell AI imageStrong data has kicked off something of a rethink regarding Fed policy today as the market looks at a higher-for-longer scenario.In the initial aftermath of the data, the implied odds of a July hike rose to 92% from 85% but that's since pared back to...
The Nasdaq has trimmed its decline to 1.0% as dip buyers wade in.There's plenty of thinking about how to trade tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report (which everyone expects to be strong) and next week's CPI report (which everyone expects to be weak). While the upside...
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 growth estimateThe Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 2Q growth rose to 2.1% from 1.9% last. In their own words:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent on July 6,...
MUFG, a major Japanese financial group, has discussed the recent hawkish repricing of the Bank of England's (BoE) rate hike expectations. They believe that the UK fixed income market sell-off, which began in mid-May, is extending into July. However, MUFG maintains...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Prior was -9603KGasoline -2550K vs -1417K expDistillates -1045K vs +296K expRefinery utilization -1.1% vs +0.1% expSPR release 1.4 million barrels (the final 1.3 million barrels coming next week)Private data from late yesterday:Crude -4382KGasoline +1615KDistillates...
Treasury yields are at new session highs and so is the US dollar.GBP/USD is a good illustration of the ride it's been today as the pound first rallied on high inflation only to be swept away by a broad dollar bid.The commodity currencies are the laggards today as the...
The USD started the day as the weakest of the major currencies. That is no longer the case as stronger data has set the yield racing to the upside. The 2 year yield is now up 14 basis points while the 10 year is up 12.6 basis points.The USD is making new highs for the...
JOLTS job openings declines in MayPrior month 10.103M revised to 10.320MThe number of job openings decreased to 9.8 million on the last business day of May, a drop of 496,000 from April.The job openings rate declined by 0.3 percentage points to 5.9%.Health care and...
Prior was 50.3Details:employment index 53.1 versus 49.2 priornew orders index 55.5 versus 52.9 expectedprices paid index 54.1 versus 56.2 prior new export orders 61.5 versus 59.0 last monthimports 54.6 versus 50.0 last monthbacklog of orders 43.9 versus 40.9 last...
The GBPUSD moved higher coming into the US session and in the process moved above a swing area between 1.2738 and 1.2759. Let run to the upside was that kickstarted after swing lows from both yesterday and today were able to hold against or near 100 and 200-hour...
Prelim was 54.1Prior was 54.9Strong upturn in new ordersNew export orders rose for a second month"On the price front, service sector firms saw a marked rise in cost burdens at the end of the second quarter."Composite final PMI 53.2 vs 53.0 prelimThe ISM services...
Just as bonds puke and everyone frets about higher Fed funds rates, the ISM services survey could shift the mood.It's due at the top of the hour and expected at 51.0 from 50.3. You have to think that risks are to the upside but we'll get a clue in the final revisions...
US stocks of gotten off to a weak start after the much stronger-than-expected ADP sent yields higher. The 2-year yield is now up around 10 basis points and the 10-year yield is up around 9 basis points. If the Fed was worried about too strong employment which leads...
The hot ADP employment data sent the USDCAD to the upside and in the process, the price broke above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May 25 high at 1.33213. The high reached 1.33287, but the price has since rotated back to the downside and currently...
What happened here?At the turn of the year, you couldn't get away from recession calls. It was a complete consensus, with only a few voices saying otherwise.Instead, it's turned into a red-hot economy with jobs growth beating estimates for 14 months in a row -- and...
The new youThe ADP jobs report came in extremely hot at 497K versus 228K estimate. Initial jobs claims were still fairly strong, and continuing claims continue to ticked lower (also stronger). Yields moved sharply higher. Stocks are lower. The dollar has moved higher...