More yen intervention of the verbal kind from Japan.Japan finance minister Suzuki says keeping in close contact with the US at the vice-ministerial level on FXAdds that he doesn't have anything to add beyond what he has already said previously on recent yen...
Reminder – US markets are closed for a holiday on Tuesday, 4 July 2023
I posted this Friday and again yesterday but if you did miss it, it's the US Independence Day holiday today, July 4.Markets will be closed: stock exchangesbondsFX (FX never entirely closes but it'll be super-thin, negligible, liquidity)As for Globex, I posted its...
ICYMI – China restricts export of metals used in high performance chips
Probably the biggest news over the past 24 hours or so, Greg had it on Monday:China will restrict exports of products and materials that incorporate the metals gallium and germanium. these are critical to the manufacturing of semiconductors, 5G base stations, and...
Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision still to come, an ‘on hold’ preview
ING preview the Reserve Bank of Australia decision due at 2.30pm Sydney time:0430 GMT0030 US Eastern time Of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 13 expect a rise of 25bp to 4.35%, while 19 (including ourselves) expect no change to the current 4.1% cash rate target....
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2046 (vs. estimate at 7.2386)
People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading...
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes are due this week – guide to July decision?
The minutes of the June Federal Reserve FOMC meeting are due on Wednesday July 4 at 2pm US Eastern time, 1800 GMT. Preview thoughts, in brief, via BMo:the official communication will help refine expectations around a hike in July and the path toward the 5.75% upper...
ICYMI: Japan was removed from the US Treasury semi-annual currency manipulation list
Posting this as a reminder from back in the middle of last month:Treasury semi-annual currency report says no major US trading partners manipulated FXWhile being on the list would not, and indeed did not, stop the Bank of Japan from intervening in the yen, not being...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2386 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
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US Treasury Secretary Yellen had a frank and productive discussion with China’s ambassador
US Treasury statement says that Secretary Yellen had a frank and productive discussion today with China's ambassador,Yellen raised issues of concernAlso conveyed the importance of the two countries working togetherYellen is heading off to China for meetings from July...
USD/JPY is finally on the move lower after Kanda’s yen intervention threat. Not by much.
Japan's Finance Ministry's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Masato Kanda spoke with media earlier in the day in Tokyo, saying that Japanese authorities were in close contact with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and other overseas authorities almost...
Australian weekly consumer confidence survey 74.1 (prior 74.9)
The ANZ - Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey is conducted weekly.Fell to 74.1 from 74.9 the week before (the lowest since April 2020 was only 2 weeks ago)Inflation expectations stay at 5.9%ANZ remarks:The 4-week average was the 2nd worst result in 30 years...
Japan yen intervention guy Kanda says communicating with the US over currencies
This is a yen intervention threat from Japan's Finance Ministry's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Kanda. It's the MoF that will instruct the Bank of Japan to intervene. And Kanda is the official responsible for doing so. Kanda says he is in...
RBA preview – In May and June the Bank surprised with rate hikes … “here we go again”
The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision and statement is due on Tuesday, 4 July 2023 at 2.30pm Sydnay time0430 GMT0030 US Eastern time Earlier previews are here:Via Scotia, their thoughts:Think back to May 2nd and June 6th. On both occasions, the...
Nomura expects EUR/GBP potentially as high as 0.90 by the end of the year.
Nomura predicts a possible upward movement for the EUR/GBP currency pair towards 0.88 or even 0.90 by the end of the year. Key Points: 1. Quiet Week for the UK and Euro Area: Nomura notes that the upcoming week is expected to be relatively quiet for both the UK and...
New Zealand data: Q2 business confidence -63% vs. -66% in the prior quarter
Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER)The twin headlines are confidence and acidity:Business confidence in Q2 comes in at -63%prior -66%Business Own Activity comes in at 13%Also, Capacity Utilization...
ICYMI – Saudi Arabia and Russia are cutting oil supply again
Saudi Arabia and Russia are extending thier oil output cuts:The Saudi Energy Ministry said it would extend July's cut of 1 million barrels per day through August to support “the stability and balance of oil markets.” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said...
Goldman Sachs have cut their US inflation forecast for this year
Goldman Sachs has affirmed they continue to expect US core inflation to decline in 2023:we continue to believe that core PCE inflation will fall sharply (in 2023)we (have) lowered our core PCE inflation forecast for December 2023 to 3.5% from 3.7%(we have) left our...
New Zealand to sign NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement and attend NATO Summit
A statement from New Zealand's government:Prime Minister Chris Hipkins will travel to Brussels to witness New Zealand signing the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement before heading to Stockholm and the NATO Leaders’ Summit in Lithuania. “I said trade would be a key focus for...
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 3 Jul: ISM manufacturing PMI below 50 for the 7th month.
The USD was mostly higher in early US trading as holiday-shortened trading began. However, ISM manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected at 46.0 vs 47.0 estimates. That was the lowest level since May 2020 and the 7th consecutive month with the index below the...