Prior +7.6%HICP +6.7% vs +6.8% y/y expectedPrior +8.0%It would seem Italian inflation is easing further as we head towards the end of Q2 and that is encouraging for the ECB and the economy ahead of the other data this week. While it is still well above the 2%...
USD/JPY continues march towards intervention territory
USD/JPY daily chartThe verbal jawboning by Japanese officials aren't really having much impact, as you would expect, as the yen continues to fall further this week. USD/JPY is trading higher again today, now to 144.16 as buyers are staying poised for a further push to...
ECB’s Vujčić: There is a good chance of a September rate hike
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Eurozone May M3 money supply +1.4% vs +1.5% y/y expected
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Switzerland June Credit Suisse investor sentiment -30.8 vs -32.2 prior
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
ECB’s Muller: Need to look at the data for rate hike beyond July
Too early to say where rates will end upRisks to inflation are still on the upsideRate hikes are gradually having an impactThat is a balanced take to the situation but it once again just reinforces the narrative that a July rate hike is a given. But what comes after...
Italy PM Meloni says more ECB rate hikes may harm the economy
Simplistic approach of hiking rates is not the right path to take for manyIt's clear that not everyone is on board, as also evidenced by Centeno's remarks here. What is also now clear is that the recent decline in economic activity for June is not going down well with...
ECB’s Centeno: Inflation is easing as quickly as it went up
Over-tightening is not an acceptable positionEconomy already taking a hit, inflation will reactWe are definitely getting to the terminal rateEven if there have been some signs of price pressures easing, it is too early to make such a judgement surely. It's a bit...
ECB’s de Guindos: July rate hike is set
There is more ground to be covered on ratesThat's as firm a commitment as you are going to get on next month's move. While the inflation data this week won't have any bearings on that, just be mindful that it could sway the decision for September - especially with the...
European equities open slightly higher to start the day
Eurostoxx +0.4%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 +0.6%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.4%It's still early in the day but at least it is a bit of a breather after the heavy selling since last week. US futures are looking more tepid though, with S&P 500 futures seen down 8...
France June consumer confidence 85 vs 83 prior
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Germany July GfK consumer confidence -25.4 vs -23.0 expected
Prior -24.2; revised to -24.4German consumer morale is set to have declined heading into July as economic and income expectations fall looking to the month ahead. GfK notes that "the current development indicates that consumers are once again more uncertain". This...
Japan finance minister says exchange rate should move stably
One-sided movement seen in the current marketWill respond appropriately to excessive moves if necessaryNo comment on FX levelsThe verbal jawboning hasn't really deterred USD/JPY bulls to bring the pair up to 144.00 yesterday. If you're not familiar with the comments...
Trade ideas thread – European session 28 June 2023
The aussie isn't faring all too well today as it has been thrown a curveball via a softer monthly CPI data earlier here. That is seeing some accelerated downside for AUD/USD as highlighted here.Meanwhile, the yen continues to stay under pressure this week but traders...
Aussie thrown a bit of a curveball via inflation data today
AUD/USD is down 0.6% on the day to 0.6645 and it is mostly to do with the monthly inflation numbers here. That might be reason for the RBA to switch the dial on policy setting but it isn't definitive I would say. Inflation remains well above the target band set out by...
ANZ still expect a rate rise from the RBA next week, a +25bp cash rate hike
An unchanged call for the Reserve Bank of Australia even after the better inflation figures earlier:ANZ:We still expect a rate rise from the RBA in July despite the deceleration of monthly inflation (though the risk of a pause increases). CPI ex volatile items and...
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Head of Volkswagen in China asked Premier Li Qiang for clarity on new anti-espionage law
Earlier this year concerns were raised over China's new law against espionage that tightens state control over a wider swath of data and digital activities.As posted back then:“The business community necessarily needs information,” said Lester Ross, a Beijing-based...
Australian Dollar Slides After CPI Data; How Much More Downside in AUD/USD?
Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, Australia Monthly CPI – Talking Points:AUD fell sharply after Australia monthly CPI came in well below expectations.RBA rate hike expectations for July have scaled back a bit after the data.What’s next for AUD/USD? Recommended by...
Russia’s energy ministry says gasoline exports down 30% in June from May
Statement from Russian Energy Ministry via Reuters:Says Russia's gasoline exports fell 30% in June from MayRussian refineries' gasoline production up 3.1% y/y as of the last week of JuneDiesel production +2% y/y at the end of June, reserves are at a historical highGas...