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The rating downgrade of the United States reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three yearsCites repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutionsIn Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last...
The USD is ending the day as the strongest of the major currencies while the AUD is the weakest. The AUDUSD was the biggest mover falling 1.59%. The RBA kept rates unchanged and although the odds before the decision called for no change, there was a 35% chance for a...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
The inventory data from the private survey is out now, official data follows Wed. morning (US time).This is the largest weekly draw in this survey in at least 40 years. Expectations I had seen centred on:Headline crude -1.4mn barrelsDistillates +0.1mn bblsGasoline...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
In the above video, I take a look at the technicals driving some of the major currency pairs vs the USD. In trading on Tuesday, the USD moved higher vs all the major currencies helped by rising yields. The 30-year yield moved to the highest level for the year and the...
New Zealand data is taking a bit of a backseat at present given the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is very firmly on hold at present. Still, eyes will be on the jobless rate with the NZ economy in recession. The Bank of Japan minutes are from the June meeting. The...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Baseline is no rate cuts until the second half of 2024 at earliestInflation is unacceptably high but there has been significant progressData consistent with 'orderly slowdown'We are in a phase where there is some risk of overtighteningsays he would have 'grudgingly'...
Credit Agricole shares insights on the recent interplay of economic factors, noting a revived 'soft landing' narrative and its potential implications for the forex market.Key Points:Soft Landing Revisited: The beginning of the week sees the 'soft landing' narrative...
Much of this year has been a guessing game of when the US would go into recession but for some sectors of the economy, it's never left and it's been brutal.Today's ISM manufacturing PMI underscored the pain in the sector:ISM manufacturingBut if you squint, you can see...
USDJPY tests next target areaThe USDJPY moving to a new session high and in the process is testing the next target area between 143.44 and 143.54 (see red numbered circles on the chart above). Moving above that area, and apart from the natural resistance near 144.00,...
The New York Fed's "multivariate core trend" rate of inflation is their attempt to capture the underlying trend of prices and it fell to 2.9% y/y in June from a downwardly revised 3.2% in May. It's now at the lowest two-and-a-half years.Persistence in both housing and...
WTI crude oil traded as low as $80.59 today but has since turned around and is now trading fractionally higher on the day at $81.82. The API private oil inventory numbers are due out later today and they often leak, so I wonder if this turn is related, especially...
Markets fully expected Fed will bring inflation downJOLTS data looks consistent with strong labor market moving to a more balanced phaseFOMC d ecisions are 'close calls' for him as Fed tries to manage transitionNeed to see sustained, steady progress on inflation. I'm...
The US 30 year yield has risen to the highest level this year. The yield reached 4.115%. That took out the high yield from July 10 which reached 4.086%. The yield is trading at the highest level since November 10.For the day, the yield is up about 9 basis points on...
EURGBP takes out levels but needs more momentumThe EURGBP is running higher today. The pair has been waffling up and down over the last 5 trading days. Today, the price broke above its 100 hour moving average of 0.85714 (blue line in the chart above), and has...
Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q3 growth 3.9%The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for Q3 growth rose to 3.9% from 3.5% after data today. It is the 2nd estimate for the quarter given recent data. Last week Q2 growth came in at 2.4%. That was right on the Atlanta Fed...
The major European indices are off to a bad start for the month of August. All are lower on the day and closing near the lows for the day. The declines are led by Spain's Ibex which fell -1.44%.A snapshot of the closing levels shows:German DAX, -1.26%France's CAC,...
The USDCHF broke above an upward-sloping trendline today along with the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the end-of-June high. Those levels come between 0.8729 and 0.8740. Going forward, traders looking for more momentum from the break will likely be...