The Reserve Bank of Australia statement is due on 01 August 2023 at 2.30pm Sydney time (0430 GMT, 1230 am US Eastern time). Analysts are split between those expecting no change and those expecting a +25bp rate hike. Market pricing is firmly for no change to the cash...
US equities finish off another solid month with gains. Value leads
July was a strong month for US equities that closed out with some modest gains:S&P 500 +0.2%Nasdaq Comp +0.2%DJIA +0.3%Russell 2000 +1.0%On the month:S&P 500 +3.1Nasdaq Comp +4.0%DJIA +3.35%Russell 2000 +6.0%Value is playing some catch-up and the Russell 2000...
Economic calendar in Asia, Tuesday 1 August 2023 – Reserve Bank of Australia day!
The Reserve Bank of Australia policy statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time, which is 0430 GMT at 12.30am US Eastern time. Marekt pricing is showing an on-hold decision while analysts are split between on-hold and a +25bp hike. I'll have more to come on this...
Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 1 August 2023
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
NZDUSD returns to a cluster of MAs including the 100 hour MA, 200 hour MA and 200 day MA
The NZDUSD is closing today higher. The currency pair is up 0.70%. The move to the upside saw the pair extend above 3 separate moving averages100-hour moving average at 0.6198200-hour moving average of 0.62089200-day moving average of 0.62215. The high price reached...
HSBC: Here is why risk-reward around this week’s BOE may not be encouraging for GBP bulls
HSBC lays out its perspective on the potential movements of the GBP in relation to the Bank of England's (BoE) upcoming decisions:Key Takeaways:Expected Rate Hike: HSBC's primary assumption is that the BoE will increase the policy rate by 50 basis points on 3 August....
August seasonal trade trends
In late-June I highlighted that seasonals for stock markets were strong for July and that's exactly what took place, including a 13-day rally in Dow Jones Industrial Average.That chapter is closing and it's time to turn the page to August so here are some seasonal...
WTI crude oil future settles at $81.80
The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $81.80. That's up $1.22 or 1.51%Although Chinese PMI data was week, they later gave assurances of upcoming consumption support from Chinese government departments. Reuters monthly OPEC poll revealed a fall in July...
EURUSD moves to a new session low but not by much.The 61.8% target at 1.10017 looms below.
EURUSD expands the range today, but still above supportThe EURUSD started the US session with a low at 1.1004 and just above the 61.8% retracement at 1.1002. The high was at 1.1037 which was just short of the 100-hour MA. That was a narrow range of only about 33...
US EIA revises May oil demand nearly 1 million barrels per day higher. Goldman sees $93
On the final day of each month the US Energy Information Administration releases monthly demand figures and they continue to stress that the weekly data can't be trusted.Today's report pegs US total demand at 20.776m bpd in May using monthly data, that's up 973,000...
ANZ: we expect the RBA to stay on hold this week; AUD/NZD tactical trading strategy
RBAAustralia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) has put forth their perspective on the upcoming RBA decision and its implications for the AUD/NZD pair:Key Takeaways:RBA's Expected Decision: ANZ predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will opt to maintain...
WTI crude oil futures trade to the highest level since April
WTI crude oil was approaching key resistanceWTI crude oil futures are trading higher by about $0.84 or 0.99% at $81.40. The high price today has reached $81.72. That took the price to the highest level since April 17.Looking at the daily chart, the price moved above...
Hedge funds de-risk in July to close to record levels
Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage report for July shows:Hedge funds have been de-risking in July at levels that are close to record levels for the past decade.The de-risking by hedge funds in July has been mainly attributed to short covering.Long/short hedge funds...
The USDCHF stalls the rally near the 38.2% retracement and moves toward key MA support
The USDCHF moves higher to a new high in the late London morning session. The high price moved up to test the 38.2% of the move down from the June 30 high, and an old rising trend line. Those levels were both broken on Friday, but failed. The buyers had their shot....
European equity close: Italy leads modest gainers as the FTSE MIB breaks out
Closing changes today:Stoxx 600 +0.2%German DAX flatFTSE 100 +0.1%French CAC +0.4%Italy MIB +0.6%Spain IBEX -0.2%On the monthStoxx 600 +2.2%German DAX +2.0%FTSE 100 +2.4%French CAC +1.5%Italy MIB +5.1%Spain IBEX +0.8%Year-to-date gains fall in the 3.5% (UK) to 25%...
USDCAD tumbles in trading today. Higher oil helps to support the CAD.
We knowThe USDCAD is moving sharply to the downside in trading today. In the process, the price has moved below its 100-hour moving average at 1.3208, and its 200-hour moving average at 1.31917. Moving below those levels tilts the bias back to the downside. BTW, there...
OPEC production fell 840K bpd in July – survey
WTI crude oil is up another $1.07 today as it builds towards a sixth-consecutive week of gains. It's trading at $81.61 and near the highs of the day after Reuters' survey of OPEC production showed a drop of 860K bpd.The bulk of that is the 500kbpd Saudi voluntary cut,...
Dallas Fed manufacturing business index -20.0 vs -23.2 prior
Production -4.8 vs -4.8 priorNew orders -18.1 vs -16.6 priorShipments -2.2 vs -17.0 priorEmployment +10.0 vs +2.2Company outlook -16.9 vs -10.7I have been looking for green shoots in manufacturing after a tough year and there are some emerging but not in this report....
AUDUSD trades higher today ahead of RBA decision, but approaches key technical resistance
The AUD is the strongest of the major currencies today and the AUDUSD is one of the big gainers with a rise of 1.23%. The gains come after declines on Thursday and Friday of last week. They also come ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision on...
Major indices are higher in early US trading
The major US indices are trading higher in early US trading. A snapshot of the market 20 minutes into the open is showing:Dow industrial average up 68.96 points or 0.20% at 35530S&P index up 8.44 points or 0.18% of 4590.84NASDAQ index up 25.15 points or 0.1% at...