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I infrequently write about the looming shortage of base metals, including copper. Chile's stats agency is out with data showing production in the country -- which itself is the equivalent of OPEC for the copper market -- is down 0.9% y/y.It's not improving either. On...
The mood is improving as New York trade ramps up. S&P 500 futures are now 11 points higher to 4617. The positive momentum is seeping into commodity currencies, which are broadly higher to start the week. AUD/USD is particularly strong, up 63 pips to 0.6713. It...
The EURUSD has seen down-and-up trading to start the new trading week. The move to the downside and the Asian session installed ahead of its 61.8% retracement of the July trading range at 1.10017. The low price today reached 1.1004 before bouncing to the upside.The...
The economic calendar today is essentially bare with only some secondary manufacturing data. I'll be watching for more green shoots from the factory sector to strengthen my thesis that the manufacturing recession will end around the turn of the 2023 calendar.In terms...
Headlines:Markets:AUD leads, JPY lags on the dayEuropean equities slightly higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%US 10-year yields down 0.6 bps to 3.962%Gold flat at $1,958.00WTI crude up 1.0% to $81.42Bitcoin up 0.2% to $29,391It's a pretty tame start to the new week,...
The earnings season continues with Apple and Amazon leading the charge this week. They will release their earnings after the market close on Thursday. The Nasdaq index has seen an increase of nearly 36.8% this year, while the S&P 500's is up 19.3%. More than half...
Last week, the Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected and left everything unchanged. The market was more focused on the press conference to see if Fed Chair Powell would hint to the next policy move. Unfortunately, Powell just repeated that they are data dependent and that...
At one point after the US CPI report this month, the dollar looked like it was bound for a major breakdown. But as USD/JPY found its footing for a rebound, so did the dollar and that correlation was also highlighted at the time already here. The dollar is still set to...
Almost everyone who is engaged in social or algorithmic trading sooner or later recognizes the need to rent hosting for their robots or subscriptions. Maintaining stable and uninterrupted hardware operation at home while ensuring minimal delays to the broker's servers...
Last week, the Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps as expected leaving the policy statement unchanged. The market was eager to get some clues on the next policy moves but was disappointed as Fed Chair Powell just reaffirmed their data dependency and kept all the...
BOJ decision could pour could water on the economy, needs high attentionPolicy tweak sends a message to finally exit from easing policyOn the final point, that certainly is reflected by 10-year JGB yields but not so much in the Japanese yen currency. The poor method...
The slightest of beats in the quarterly GDP reading for Q2 will at least provide the ECB some comfort, even as growth conditions are seen slowing down significantly. It is still a positive estimate and it is one that they can use to keep the spin of things if they...
Prior -0.1%GDP +0.6% vs +0.5% y/y expectedPrior +1.0%The slight beat is at least a welcoming number for the ECB but the outlook is still very much uncertain. Dark clouds are circling the euro area economy to start Q3 and if they do signify a stronger downturn in the...
Prior +5.5%Core CPI +5.5% vs +5.4% y/y expectedPrior +5.5%Well, headline annual inflation did decline slightly as per estimates but core annual inflation continues to remain rather sticky. That won't do the ECB much comfort in trying to spin the narrative for a...
The aussie and kiwi are sitting higher today, helped out by China stimulus news and a rally in Asian stocks. European indices were more tepid early on but are also turning the corner now with US futures also paring earlier losses to be flat on the day. That is seeing...
Last week, the Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps bringing the FFR to 5.25-5.50% as widely expected. The policy statement was left unchanged, so the market couldn’t get any signal for the next moves. In fact, the focus was not on the decision itself, but on the...
Prior 50.52k; revised to 51.14kNet consumer credit £1.7 billion vs £1.3 billion expectedPrior £1.1 billionOf note, the net borrowing of consumer credit by individuals rose to its highest since April 2018. The breakdown shows that the borrowing on credit cards remained...
Well, of course someone has noticed: first of all, the borrowers of variable-rate mortgages who have seen their repayments skyrocket, or those who would like to apply for a new one or refinance their old one. In the US the official mortgage rate has reached 7.09%, in...
Domestic sight deposits CHF 479.3 bn vs CHF 478.5 bn priorAfter the banking crisis towards the end of Q1, SNB sight deposits have pretty much resumed the downwards trend as the central bank continues to make sure its policy settings is being transmitted accordingly. A...
Prior +0.6%That's a miss on estimates and is not a good look for the Italian economy, with Q3 struggles set to intensify. If the PMI data in Europe shows no signs of improvement in the next two months, we could be staring at a technical recession in Italy.MoneyMaker...