Slight delay in the release by the source. The order book balance did rose to a six-month high to from -17 in May to -15 in June but export order balance declined once again to -29, its weakest since February 2021. CBI notes that UK manufacturing activity is likely to...
Sterling succumbs to a move lower, fails to take heart on inflation data
GBP/USD hourly chartThe initial reaction to the hot inflation data earlier was a higher pound, with GBP/USD rising to a high of 1.2802 but the move was a brief one as noted here. As mentioned then and earlier in the session, the data isn't going to change much for the...
ECB’s Kazimir: Further policy tightening in September is not certain
For me, we would need to have core inflation under control to stop tighteningWe need more data ahead of September decisionThis is consistent with the current thinking by the ECB, in that they are leaving the door open for September if need be. However, they are not...
Ifo sees German recession to be sharper than expected
That is a revision lower to their previous forecast that the German economy will contract by 0.1% in 2023. As for 2024, they also see softer growth with a forecast of 1.5% as compared to 1.7% previously. On the inflation front, Ifo notes that German inflation is...
European equities open lower to start the day
Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.3%UK FTSE -0.5%Spain IBEX -0.2%This continues from the drop yesterday with US futures also now tilting lower. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% as equities are struggling for traction so far this week. For today, it...
Traders continue to vote higher for longer on UK rates
Here is a comparison of the before and after:A 50 bps rate hike for tomorrow is now seen at roughly 55%, outpacing that of a 25 bps rate hike based on OIS pricing. There's nearly 75 bps worth of rate hikes priced by August and that says that we're now staring at the...
BOJ’s Ueda: Will patiently maintain easy monetary policy to achieve 2% inflation target
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Pound spike on inflation data fairly short-lived
GBP/USD 1-minute chartCable jumped up to a high of 1.2802 but quickly fell back to pare all of the quick gains in a fall to 1.2765 currently. As mentioned earlier:"Based on OIS pricing, a 25 bps rate hike is 100% priced in for this week and I don't see that changing...
Hot UK inflation continues to vindicate higher BOE rates
Headline annual inflation was unchanged in May at 8.7%, beating estimates, but core annual inflation is seen jumping again to above 7% and here's how that looks:UK core CPI y/y (%)Food prices continue to stay elevated with the annual reading seen up by 18.4%, just...
UK May CPI +8.7% vs 8.4% y/y expected
Prior +8.7%Core CPI +7.1% vs +6.8% y/y expectedPrior +6.8%There is a slight delay to the data release but the pound is moving higher right off this initial headline. On the month, headline inflation increased by 0.7% and that is higher than the 0.5% estimated as well....
Trade ideas thread – European session 21 June 2023
The dollar is holding its ground after last week's fall and equities are struggling slightly as there might be a bit of a risk rotation in play ahead of month-end and quarter-end. That is certainly keeping markets guarded and will make things a bit tricky to navigate...
BOJ’s Adachi: If there is a global recession, will have to keep easy policy
A global recession would put big downward pressure on pricesSo, BOJ will have to keep easy policy in such an eventIf overseas growth rebounds and pushes up domestic prices, we will of course move to a phase of gauging the timing of a policy shiftAs for any changes in...
FX option expiries for 21 June 10am New York cut
There aren't any significant expiries that are resting close to where price action is at for the moment. As such, traders will be left to their own devices and will have to lean more on the technicals and the risk mood to gauge trading sentiment today.For more...
Gold in a bit of a pickle after yesterday’s drop
Gold (XAU/USD) daily chartWith there looking to be a risk rotation in play (perhaps ahead of month-end/quarter-end), gold is failing to find much comfort despite lower bond yields. The yellow metal dropped by 0.7% yesterday but more importantly, it took out a key...
European Central Bank’s Schnabel and Kazimir are speaking on Wednesday, 21
These are two ECB speakers I have, although I expect more will pop up unannounced. 0800 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time: ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir speaks at the National Bank of Slovakia's quarterly press conference on the economic outlook for Slovakia1345...
S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 Price Setups: Will Powell’s Speech Trigger a Reversal?
S&P 500, SPX, NASDAQ 100, NDX - OUTLOOK:The S&P 500 index encounters stiff resistance.The upward momentum is strong, but the Nasdaq 100 index is looking a bit overbought for now.What’s next for the two indices? Recommended by Manish Jaradi The Fundamentals of...
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Offshore yuan weakens past 7.20 briefly
Session wrap Forex news for Asian trading on Wednesday, 21 June 2023 <!--> Eamonn Sheridan Wednesday, 21/06/2023 | 02:55 GMT-0 21/06/2023 | 02:55 GMT-0 --> Offshore yuan slid a little further again during the session, with USD/CNH rising briefly just over...
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China to continue to tax cut & exemption policies for NEV purchases in the next 4 years
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Federal Reserve Chair Powell testifies Wednesday, 21 June. Mester, Goolsbee speak also.
Powell will be questioned in the Senate today. I suspect the two focal points of questioning will be why a pause in June and what will he do in July. There will also be a grilling over the dot plots showing 2 more rate hikes as a base case, and is this a serious...