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Inter-meeting data was broadly in line with our expectationsCPI was a bit better than expectationsWe haven't made any decisions about future meetingsWe're looking for moderate growth, we're looking for a better balance in supply and demand, particularly in labor...
Without price stability, the economy doesn't work for anyoneWe've covered a lot of ground and the full effect of our tightening has yet to be feltStill a strong pace of jobs growthLabor demand still 'substantially' exceeds supplyThe process of getting back to 2%...
EURUSD: The EUSUSD remains above its 50% midpoint of the July trading range. That level comes in at 1.10539. The New York (and London session) held that midpoint level. The Asian session mostly traded below the midpoint level. On the top side, the falling 100-hour...
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks for about an hour in his usual post-Fed press conference. The video is below but note this chart from Bespoke that highlights the tendency of the market to sell off after Powell wraps up his appearance at around 3:30 pm ET.Fed chair fed...
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementFor release at 2:00 p.m. EDTRecent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains...
25 bps rate hikeeconomic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace (vs modest pace prior)Repeats forward guidance that refers to "the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate"No other changes to the statementThis statement is virtually...
A snapshot of market levels ahead of the FOMC rate decision:Forex:EURUSD 1.1064USDJPY 140.53 GBPUSD 1.2910 USDCHF 0.8636USDCAD 1.3232AUDUSD 0.6742NZDUSD 016198US interest rates:2-year yield 4.097%5-year yield 4.163%, +1.2 basis points10-year yield 3.898%, -1.3 basis...
As the Fed decision looms at the top of the hour, the major indices are trading lower led by the NASDAQ index. The Dow is down marginally. A close lower today would snap its 12-day winning streak. The record is 13 straight days of gains. A snapshot market currently...
Jerome Powell reading by the fire (AI image)I always like to read the prior statement one more time before the FOMC decision, which is at the top of the hour.Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementecent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand...
Consensus among BOC members was that the cost of delaying action was greater than the benefit of waiting for more dataAgreed they were prepared to hike further if needed but 'did not want to do more than they had to'Concerned that progress towards price stability...
AI imageThe Federal Reserve may be tempted to take a victory lap in the fight against inflation today and offer hints that it could be at the end of the rate hiking cycle. Headline CPI is down to 3.0% y/y from a peak of 9.1%.US CPI yyThe Fed target is still a full...
The WSJ Timiraos, is tweeting an interview he gave at Fox Business, and says:The Fed will likely announce a 25 basis point hike at 2 PM ET, and if Timiraos is right, will continue to be cautious about prospects for inflation. Employment remains solid. Unions are going...
Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate 2.4%The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 estimate comes in at 2.4%, unchanged from the prior model estimate. In their own words:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.4...
NZDUSD traders define support and resistance targetsGenerally speaking, the NZDUSD is consolidating between the 50% retracement of the move up from the June 29 low at 0.6230, and the 61.8% retracement level of the same move higher at 0.61874.In between those...
Bespoke is out with a great chart today showing how markets have performed on Fed day under various Chairmen. Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen and Powell all sport positive returns -- and Fed day is the single best day to hold stocks, historically -- but the shape of those...
The GBPUSD has moved to a new session high as London/European traders look to exit for the day. The price had been inching higher after an initial dip in the Asian Pacific session and found support ahead of the 50% midpoint of the move up from the June 29 below near...
The AUDUSD is lower on the day. The declines were helped by the lower-than-expected CPI data out of Australia last night. That sent the pair down to a low of 0.67287. However, that low fell just short of the rising 200-day moving average of 0.67222 (see lower green...
Bill Blair takes over as defense ministerAnita Anand goes from defense to Treasury boardSean Fraser named housing and infrastructure ministerArif Virani to be justice ministerNo changes in finance, foreign, innovation or natural resources ministriesI would call this...
Justin Trudeau set to shuffle cabinet (AI image)Canadian Prime Minister has more than 2 years before the next Federal election but his party may be growing uneasy as polls show the Conservatives making headway.That has prompted a cabinet re-shuffling to be announced...
Prior was -708KGasoline -786K vs -1678K expectedDistillates -245K vs -301K expectedRefinery utilization -0.9% vs +0.1% expectedProduction estimate mbpd 12.2 mbpd vs 12.3 mbpd priorImpld mogas demand: 8.94mbpd vs 8.86mbpd priorThe API data released late yesterday:Crude...