Inflation well above target, labor market very tightSome indications of future business defaults are elevatedFinancial conditions have tightened since JanuaryWill adjust pace of balance sheet contraction if neededOutlook for Fed funds rate subject to 'considerable...
AUDUSD shows a crack in the bullish move… maybe?
AUDUSD shows a crackThe AUDUSD has been up 10 of the last 11 trading days. The move from the low reached 0.6457 on May 31, and reached a high of 0.6899 today. That is a move of 442 pips.Technically looking at the daily chart, the price today moved above the 61.8%...
NY Fed underlying inflation gauge 3.5% vs 4.0% prior
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Extends Upside after Dovish BoJ Decision
JAPANESE YEN FORECAST:USD/JPY blasts off and flirts with fresh multi-month highs after Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decisionBoJ kept interest rates and its yield curve control program unchanged, signaling little appetite to alter course any time soonThis article...
Weekly Market Recap (12-16 June 2023)
Monday: BoE’s Haskel (hawk) said that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. BoE’s Mann (hawk) highlighted that wage increases above 4% would make it a challenge to return CPI to 2%. Tuesday: The UK employment report beat across the board with the unemployment rate...
The sellers are winning in the USDCAD. What would turn that bias around?
In the USDCAD, the sellers have pushed the price below a swing area between 1.3207 and 1.32299. The low price just reached 1.31942. Staying below 1.32299 now would keep the sellers in firm control. The high price today reach 1.32398. A move above that level would...
April final UMich consumer sentiment 63.9 vs 60.0 expected
Prior was 59.2Current conditions 68.0 vs 65.5 expected (64.9 prior)Expectations 61.3 vs 56.5 expected (55.4 prior)1-year inflation 3.3% vs 4.2% prior -- lowest since March 20215-10 year inflation 3.0% vs 3.1% priorThis is a four-month high in consumer sentiment but I...
What does steel say about the state of the US economy
Steel is the physical backbone of the global economy and trends in steel pricing offer some insight into strength in investment.Oftentimes those signals can become muddied by trade flows, especially when China was dumping steel into the US. Since the steel trade war...
Major indices trading higher at the US open (not the US Open)
The major US stock indices are moving higher in early US trading once again. The S&P index is up on pace for its 5th positive week in a row. The NASDAQ index is on pace for its 8th positive week in a row which is the longest win streak since March 2019.A snapshot...
“Reading the tape” in the USDJPY.
In the old days stock traders is to "read the tape". They literally read the tickertape of the trades that were going through live and being recorded. In other words they were looking at the actual price action and making judgments as far as supply and demand from...
Richmond Fed Barkin: Comfortable doing more on interest rates if demand does not slow
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Waller: It’s ‘disturbing’ that core inflation not improving
> Central Banks > Waller: It's 'disturbing' that core inflation not improving Central Banks More from Waller <!--> --> Adam Button Friday, 16/06/2023 | 13:07 GMT-0 16/06/2023 | 13:07 GMT-0 <!--> --> It's disturbing that core inflation isn't...
EURUSD extends higher after big move higher yesterday
The EURUSD has extended to a new high and entered further into what was the trading range going back to April and early May (above 1.0900 area). Yesterday, the pair moved sharply higher and away from the 50% midpoint of the move down from the April 26 high to the May...
US consumer sentiment wraps up a whirlwind week
The Bank of Japan didn't deliver any fireworks ahead of the weekend but the yen weakness today shows there were some major worries they would shift gears. It's been a volatile week of unpredictable and hard-to-explain moves. It's slowed down today ahead of a US long...
NATO defence ministers’ meeting fails to approve first defense plans since Cold war
Reuters sources report on some friction at NATO.Meanwhile, Stoltenberg said they're working towards creating a Ukraine-NATO council.At this point, it should be clear to everyone this is a proxy war between Russia and NATO, only using Ukrainian soldiers. There's no...
Fed’s Waller: US economy is still ‘ripping along’
Right now everything 'seems to be calm' in the banking systemGlobal spillovers from expected from coordinated central bank tightening have to really materializedIt's still not clear that recent bank failures have had a material effect on credit conditionsMonetary...
The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins
The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakestThe GBP is the strongest of the major currencies and the JPY is the weakest as the North American traders enter for the new trading day. The Bank of Japan maintained its dovish stance by keeping its ultra-low interest...
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen fall continues, ECB leaves door open for Sept hike
Headlines:Markets:GBP leads, JPY lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%US 10-year yields up 1.2 bps to 3.740%Gold up 0.4% to $1,965.49WTI crude flat at $70.64Bitcoin down 0.4% to $25,450After the dollar plunge yesterday, the action has...
ECB’s Wunsch: Could hike again in September unless core inflation drops substantially
Core inflation holding around 5% could require rate hike in September, possibly beyondNot yet seeing beginning of slowdown in core inflationThat's a better take as he even goes as far as to attach a figure for what may be a trigger. It's all down to the data now to...
AUD/USD takes a light breather towards the end of the week but buyers well in control
It has been a storming run for AUD/USD ever since testing the 0.6500 mark as buyers have certainly not relented in the rebound to its highest levels since February this week. Here's a look at the daily chart:AUD/USD daily chartThe pair is down 0.2% to 0.6869 at the...