Policy is on restrictive terrain, it isn't a support to growthRates should remain in restrictive territory for some more time after the summerAgain, they're just alluding to rates staying high beyond the summer but falling short of actually confirming a rate hike in...
USD/CAD break lower may have legs to run
USD/CAD daily chartFrom a technical standpoint, this is one of the more attractive dollar charts at the moment in my view. The pair had largely been consolidating around 1.3300 to 1.3900 since the end of last year, and finally we might be seeing a break in that...
GBP/USD seals breakout move on the week, what’s next?
The pair is up nearly 2% on the week, no thanks in part to some heavy dollar selling yesterday as traders finally picked a side after the Fed meeting. But the pound side of the equation itself is also faring quite well, with the currency bolstered by a hotter UK jobs...
EUR/USD little changed on the day but stays poised for a retest of 1.1000
EUR/USD daily chartThe pair is reflecting a heavy contrast of fortunes this week as the dollar is suffering following the Fed decision while the euro is bolstered by the ECB decision. That has seen a break back above the 100-day moving average (red line) and the...
USDCAD Technical Analysis – Key moment
This week, the Federal Reserve took a slightly more hawkish stance than expected. They decided to keep interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.00-5.25%, but they increased the projected terminal rate in the Dot Plot by 50 basis points. The FOMC chose to pause during...
Eurozone May CPI +6.1% vs +6.1% y/y prelim
Prior +7.0%Core CPI +5.3% vs +5.3% y/y prelimPrior +5.6%There are no changes to the initial estimates as euro area headline annual inflation is seen dropping further in May. The good news is that core annual inflation is also starting to ease and is that a sign of a...
ECB’s Holzmann: If things continue as they are, further action will be needed beyond July
Has no view on what should happen with rates beyond JulyBut if things continue as they are, then further action will be neededKey question will be how persistent core inflation isThey are not pre-committing to a September rate hike but they aren't ruling it out either...
ECB’s Rehn: Future decisions will continue to follow a data-dependent approach
We're also hearing from other ECB speakers simultaneously, with Muller stating that interest rates have not yet reached the peak. Meanwhile, Simkus is saying that it is still too early to say what the ECB might do in September but they must hike interest rates again...
Market Update – June 16 – Stocks euphoria spreads as the USD takes a hit
Asia-Pacific markets are higher today, following another brilliant performance for the US market yesterday as the Bank of Japan again left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at -0.1% and stated that inflation is slowing and it is closely monitoring the FX market....
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BOJ’s Ueda: we have not changed policy because Japan’s inflation is not sustainable
It is true that the yen has weakened recentlyIt is possible that inflation will fall under 2% in the futureWell, the headline remarks certainly isn't one that will help the yen out too much. As highlighted here, the currency is facing big pressure against European...
Goldman Sachs also now expects ECB to hike rates again in September
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Japanese yen fails to take comfort from Ueda presser
USD/JPY is up another 0.6% today to 141.15 at the moment but it isn't the best indicator of how the Japanese yen is falling apart especially towards the latter stages of this week. The squeeze started yesterday and it is gaining pace now as we see the yen fall to...
European stocks observe light changes to start the day
Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX flatFrance CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.1%US futures are also a little more subdued after the roaring gains yesterday, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both down 0.2% while Dow futures are down 0.1% at the moment. It's a...
ECB’s Nagel: We may need to keep raising rates after the summer break
Still a long way to go to reach inflation targetWell, the expectations are certainly building and 2-year German bund yields have just hit a fresh 3-month high of 3.206% to start the day. With bond yields staying underpinned and the BOJ is still not hinting at any...
BOJ’s Ueda says no comment on FX levels
No comment on exchange rateThere are both positive and negative impacts from a weak yenImportant for currency to move stably reflecting economic fundamentalsHe refuses to comment but then makes a scathing remark that there are pros and cons to a weaker Japanese yen....
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Pound on fire
The Federal Reserve this week was a bit more hawkish by keeping interest rates steady at 5.00-5.25 but raising their projected terminal rate by 50 basis points in the Dot Plot. The FOMC decided to take a pause in this meeting to gather additional economic data before...
BOJ’s Ueda: More time is needed to meet 2% inflation target
Expects inflation to slow towards the middle of fiscal year 2023Japan economy still faces very high uncertaintyWill update progress of the review of past policies starting next monthNeed to pay attention to FX and financial marketsIf anything else, this does not sound...
Bundesbank: German economy to shrink by 0.3% in 2023
Economy to expand by 1.2% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025 respectivelyGerman inflation seen at 6.0% in 2023, 3.1% in 2024, 2.7% in 2025Inflation risks are tilted to the upsideEconomy is set to recover only arduously but inflation at last is easingWe'll see how confident they...
BNP Paribas now sees ECB hiking in September as well
In case you missed it:BNP Paribas now sees the terminal rate at 4.00%, up from its previous forecast of 3.75%, and that view is also shared by UniCredit as they also lift their peak rate forecast for the ECB to 4.00% as well.In terms of market pricing, roughly 40 bps...