3 reasons the Bank of Japan is expected to keep policy unchanged at this week's meetingCiti says markets mispricing downside risks for inflation heading into the May inflationFormer Dallas Fed Pres Kaplan says FOMC 'hawkish pause' in June, July hike is openNational...
3 reasons the Bank of Japan is expected to keep policy unchanged at this week’s meeting
The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting is on Thursday and Friday this week. The 15th and 16th of June. The statement will be Friday, most likely in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window (there is no firmly scheduled time or the BOJ announcement). This is from 10.30 to...
Citi says markets mispricing downside risks for inflation heading into the May inflation
Bloomberg (gated) convey the info from a Citi note saying “We do not think markets have been adequately pricing downside risks for inflation heading into the May inflation release,”like five months ago, the market is coming off two consecutive lower-than-forecast CPI...
Positive start to the week as US CPI looms: Gold, Straits Times Index, Brent crude
Market RecapWall Street delivered yet another positive start to the new trading week (DJIA +0.56%; S&P 500 +0.93%; Nasdaq +1.53%), with strength in rate-sensitive tech reflecting some confidence that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening cycle will be heading...
Former Dallas Fed Pres Kaplan says FOMC ‘hawkish pause’ in June, July hike is open
Robert Kaplan was President of the Dallas Federal Reserve branch. He resigned in September 2021 amidst a trading controversy.However, he was the first Fed official to call for tightening, well before his then colleagues and he was entirely correct. Kaplan was...
National Australia Bank raise their RBA terminal rate forecast to 4.6% (from 4.35%)
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Australia Business confidence (May) -4 (prior 0) and Conditions +8 (prior +14)
National Australia Bank Business Survey for May 2023. Not a good report. Confidence and conditions both dropped. these are the two headlines to the report. Demand growth is being hit by RBA rate hikes, which is what the Bank is trying to do given they can't imp[act...
People’s Bank of China cuts 7 day Reverse repo rate to 1.90%, from 2%
> Central Banks > People's Bank of China cuts 7 day Reverse repo rate to 1.90%, from 2% Central Banks <!--> --> <!--> --> <!--> A rate cut from the PBOC. Further cuts are expected, beginning with the MLF rate on Thursday: ADVERTISEMENT -...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1498 (vs. estimate at 7.1490)
People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading...
Bank of England Governor Bailey speaking Tuesday, as is MPC member Dhingra
A couple of BoE big hitters are speaking on Tuesday, 13 June 2023:1400 GMT/10:00 US Eastern time: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee as part of an inquiry into central bank independence1500 GMT/11:00 US...
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Australian data – Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (June) +0.2% m/m (prior -7.9%)
The index dropped/collapsed even further in May, to 79.0 from 85.8 in April.The June result just released is not a lot better. Comes in at 79.2Westpac attributing the awful result to the RBA rate hike:"While the full survey showed little net change in sentiment,...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1490 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
Deutsche Bank US CPI preview – “event of the week” – Clear FOMC impact factor
I posted a US CPI preview earlier:The data is due at 8.30am user, which is 1230 GMT. Pic below of expected and priors:The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where...
Japan Quarterly Business Sentiment Index survey, Q2 2023. Large manufacturing index -0.4%
The Business Sentiment Index (BSI) survey is conducted by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute (a part of Japan's Cabinet office) is conducted quarterly.Business conditions have improved across the survey, for both manufacturing and...
Brief European Central Bank, and CPI, previews via Deutsche Bank
European Central Bank meeting and Eurozone inflation previews via DB. These are in very brief. The ECB meeting is on Thursday, 15 June, announcement due at 1215 GMT (815 US Eastern time) European Central Bank President Lagarde press conference follows at 1245 GMT (845...
GBP traders – BoE Mann spoke Monday, “very significant concern” on sticky core inflation
Catherine Mann is a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Adam had her comments posted Monday:Mann is one of the most (if not the most) hawkish MPC members, so her "raise rates first ask question later" approach is not always supported by the...
US stockmarkets rallied on Monday – is this Goldman Sachs doing?
You may have seen Adam's question on Monday:Adam was citing GS' slashing their crude oil price forecast, as posted while you may have been partying on Sunday evening (I'm all for partying on Sunday evening BTW, but don't forget to check in on us at ForexLive for all...
Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon says sticky inflation is likely to remain a tough problem
Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer David Solomon spoke in a CNBC interview on Monday. “Inflation is a little bit stickier, and I do think, in the distribution of outcomes, there’s a reasonable chance that rates go higher,” “If they do that, it’s probably going to...
US bank deposits to come under pressure again
Morgan Stanley says that with the signing of the debt deal the US Treasury will issue a huge rollout of T-bills, which could see bank deposits come under pressure all over again:MS sees circa US$1.36 trillion of net T-bill issuance over the rest of 2023$1 trillion of...