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Justin posted a comprehensive preview of the UK CPI data to come for June here:Adding in some snippets from about the place.TD:Base effects and another decline in petrol prices will likely pull down headline inflation to 8.1% YoY – just 0.2ppts above the MPC's...
The New Zealand Q2 inflation data was published earlier from Stats NZ:NZD/USD was marked up, but if you check out your charts you'll see it wasn't sustained:ASB response:KiwiBank now:some good news on inflationInflation has peaked, globally. We are simply importing...
The New Zealand Q2 inflation data was published earlier from Stats NZ:NZD/USD was marked up, but if you check out your charts you'll see it wasn't sustained:ASB on the data:core inflation remains stubbornsticky non-tradeables inflation RBNZ will be kept on alert and...
People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading...
The headline: Westpac Leading Index for June +0.11% m/m (prior -0.26%). More attention is paid to the Leading Index growth rate, as below:Westpac's summary from their report:The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which...
Bloomberg (gated) with the news of Morgan Stanley moving staff out of China:It was super easy to see this coming. From back in April:And then June:Chinese Communist Party officials have been whining non-stop about "Westerners" trying to stifle their economy. They...
The latest Reuters poll of analysts finds that all 106 expect the Fed to hike by 25bps at next week's meeting, taking the Fed Funds benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range 19 out of 106 expect the Fed to raise rates again after a July hikeAs for the...
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
I posted earlier on the Bank of America fund manager survey:TD has a similar timing for their first expected Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut:Finding the right level of interest rates is only the first order of tasks. The next becomes how long to hold at...
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A boosted forecast for US equities from CS, info comes via Reuters:Credit Suisse citing a decline in the near-term U.S. recession risk"Our base case is that a recession will be averted, inflation will remain sticky near current levels, and monetary policy will tighten...
Bloomberg (gated) reporting on an interview it had with Ed Morse, global head of commodity research at Citigroup:Oil is unlikely to fall below $70 a barrel, but it would take a “wild card” event to push prices above $90OPEC+ doesn’t want oil prices to fall below $70...
Large Manufacturing sentiment index is +3 in July vs. +8 in Junefirst drop in 6 monthsmany firms cited chip shortages and the elevated costs of raw materials as negative factorsmanufacturers' sentiment seen at +7 in 3 months timeand Non-manufacturing sentiment index...
The data is here:The y/y came in at 6% vs. 5.9% expected. For more, see that link above.Both the q/q and y/y are down from Q1. The Kiwi$ has been marked higher, I'm not sure that is sustainable. These numbers seem unlikely to sway the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Bloomberg has the piece, citing unnamed European Central Bank officials, saying that members of the Governing Council consider communication about what will happen after the July 27 rate hike their biggest challenge:With policymakers from across the spectrum insisting...
Morgan Stanley CEO Gorman spoke on Tuesday, in brief: it's hard to argue for more rate increasesrate cuts wont happen this yearsays a recession is less likelyRate cut this year? Agree, nope, not gonna happen. -Anyway, more immediately, the Federal Open Market...
The most recent Bank of America global fund manager survey shows expectations are skewing towards Q2 of 2024 for the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut:Some of the other survey results:60% expect weaker global growth68% say the economy will see a soft...
The data is due at 10.45am New Zealand time:2245 GMT6.45pm US Eastern timeBNZ snippet preview of the data:For the Q2 CPI release, the consensus sees inflation again coming in under RBNZ estimates, at 0.9% q/q and 5.9% y/y. The data should reinforce the view that both...
Bank of America believes that 2024 could be a transformative year for the Japanese yen (JPY) with the implementation of the expanded NISA (Nippon Individual Savings Account), a tax-exempt investment account for individuals. The bank expects this move to widen the...