The miss in the US CPI report last week has led to a broad US Dollar weakness as the market anticipated one last hike at the July FOMC meeting. The falling inflation, strong labour market and rising consumer sentiment have also strengthened the soft-landing narrative...
Trade ideas thread – European session 18 July 2023
Not much has changed since yesterday except that stocks are continuing to keep the upside run going, with tech stocks carrying much of that weight. The AI boom continues and are we due for a breakout year especially if the Fed pivot is looking to come true in 2H...
No major economic releases coming up in Europe today
It's a bare calendar day in Europe and that will keep the market focus on the struggling dollar, as we gear towards the US retail sales data. The greenback is lightly lower across the board today, as sellers are hoping to extend the downside momentum from last...
China announces some measures to bolster use of consumer goods and services
There is a total of 11 measures set out by Chinese authorities, in trying to boost consumption of household consumer goods and services. The measures will include encouraging companies to develop online platforms for the provision of such services, a promotion for...
Dollar stays in a tough spot so far to start the week
The greenback is lightly lower today and looks to be setting up for another drop ahead of the retail sales report. The technicals continue to do the talking, and they are very much similar to the situation yesterday here:We might be in for a quieter session in Europe,...
BlackRock has named the Saudi Aramco CEO to its board
Reuters has the info of the appointment of Amin Nasser, the chief of the world's largest oil company Saudi Aramco to the board of the world's top asset manager, BlackRock. as an independent directorReuters says: His expertise in the Middle East will fill the gap left...
ICYMI – RBA Gov. Lowe said lifting productivity growth a greater challenge than inflation
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe spoke at the G20 finance meeting in India, alongside Australian Treasurer Chalmers.On inflation and productivity:The reality that most of us face is that productivity growth has slowed down in most of our economiesIt means lower...
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Awaiting US retail sales data later
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept August rate hike bubbling today with the release of the July meeting minutes. The Bank said the case for a July rate hike was strong, but was pipped by a stronger case for on hold. AUD/USD had traded a little higher, mainly due tdue...
Australian Treasurer Chalmers says it remains to be seen if more rate hikes are needed
Australian Treasurer Chalmers remarks:remains to be seen if more rate hikes are neededinflation is moderating but is still a major concernChina's economic slow down a concern for AustraliaAustralian Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers doesn't look like thisMoneyMaker FX...
China planner approved 91 fixed-asset investment projects worth total of CNY 700bn in H1
Statement from an official of the National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China (NDRC),m the 'state planner':approved 91 fixed-asset investment projects worth total of CNY 700bn in H1persistent economic recovery faces risks and...
Moodys: For Japanese banks, a rise in interest rates would bring more benefits than risks
Analysts at Moody's rating agency say that for Japanese banks, a rise in interest rates would bring more benefits than riskshigher interest rates would spur a rise in bond yields and mark-to-market losses on investment in debt securities for Japanese banks----The Bank...
Canadian June CPI data due today – is it just a placeholder?
The June inflation data from Canada follows only days after the latest move from the Bank of Canada:Scoita is not expecting a lot from the event:Canada will update CPI inflation for the month of June on Tuesday. This one is probably just a placeholder that may spark...
RBA July meeting minutes – says there was a strong case for raising the cash rate
Reserve Bank of Australia Board considered holding rates steady or hiking by 25 bpsStrong case for both, but board judged arguments for holding steady were strongerBoard agreed some further tightening may be required, would reconsider at August meetingCurrent stance...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1453 (vs. estimate at 7.1704)
People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading...
Australian weekly consumer confidence survey falls again, to 72. 6 (prior 73.3)
The ANZ - Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey is conducted weekly. Its running along close to its 3 year low.index has now spent twenty straight weeks below 80, the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008ANZ...
US June retail sales data expected to rise – is anyone even aware that the Fed is hiking?
US June 2023 retail sales data is due on 18 July 2023: This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The data is due at 0830 US Eastern time. The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior'...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1704 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
Morgan Stanley expect US Treasury yields to head lower – stubborn Fed the biggest hurdle
Via a recent Morgan Stanley note on USTs, see yield being sent lower by an eventual Federal Reserve pivot, initially in rhetoric::We maintain a bullish stance on government bond duration and expect yields to trend lower. Stubbornly hawkish central bank rhetoric...
Fed data shows rejection rate for US credit applicants climbed to its highest in 5 years
A Federal Reserve survey published on Monday pegged the rejection rate for U.S. credit applicants at to 21.8% in the twelve months through Junethe highest level seen since the same period five years agoand compares with 17.3% in the previous, February, survey prior to...
China analysts say a People’s Bank of China Q3 RRR cut is likely – to support the economy
China Securities Journal with an article today citing analysts - say that a Q3 Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) from the PBOC is likely. In order to give a boost to the economy. The Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) is a central bank regulation that sets the minimum...