Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming our world, introducing profound changes in numerous domains, including writing emails, browsing the web, and even stock picking and trading. Yet, as I watched my dog, Mika, the thought occurred to me: how far are we willing...
USD/JPY holds the key to unlock the next big dollar drop
Alongside a hold at key resistance in AUD/USD here, USD/JPY is the other major pair that might act as a saving grace for the dollar. The greenback looked to be in dire straits after last week's rout but there is still one key technical level to watch despite the...
ECB’s Vasle: Core inflation remains high, resilient
Until we get to the July policy decision next week, don't expect any change to the tone and rhetoric from the ECB. It will be interesting to see how they go about things next as September is not quite nearly a given in terms of being another rate hike - at least for...
USD/CHF retains downside bias after falling through the floor
I'm not going to keep beating the dead horse on this subject but this is one of those pairs which continues to highlight that the dollar may be vulnerable to a further breakdown. The pair fell through the floor of 0.8800 and its 2021 lows last week and is now trading...
Saudi Arabia says will extend voluntary oil cuts until the end of December 2024
The previous surprise announcement was that they were going to extend the voluntary cuts to August. But the latest one here trumps that by some margin as they will be extending it to the end of next year instead. Oil has jumped on the news with WTI crude having been...
GBP/USD looks to build on last week’s breakout move
The dollar broke down across the board last week and remains in a rough spot, despite the calmer tones so far this week. And GBP/USD is one of the charts that exemplifies that sentiment:GBP/USD weekly chartIn a similar case to the EUR/USD here, the pair also broke...
EUR/USD stays on the more bullish course for now
One of the key triggers for the dollar rout last week was a break higher in EUR/USD to its highest levels since early last year. And that culminated in a break above 1.1200 as well as a hold above the 200-week moving average (blue line) in the pair:EUR/USD weekly...
Dollar keeps more mixed so far today
In the big picture, markets are still very much caught in the battle of this narrative. It's all about moving from one data to the next after the US CPI report last week, it was the dollar that broke down - owing much to a run in the technicals as well.That hasn't...
Market Outlook for the Week of 17 – 21 July
The BoC increased interest rates by 25bps last week and left open the possibility of further rate hikes if inflation remains persistent. Although there are indications of a slowdown in inflation for the United States, it is not sufficient to persuade the Fed, so an...
Italy June final CPI +6.4% vs +6.4% y/y prelim
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
SNB total sight deposits w.e. 14 July CHF 494.7 bn vs CHF 486.6 bn prior
> SNB total sight deposits w.e. 14 July CHF 494.7 bn vs CHF 486.6 bn prior Latest data released by the SNB - 17 July 2023 <!--> Justin Low Monday, 17/07/2023 | 08:00 GMT-0 17/07/2023 | 08:00 GMT-0 --> <!--> Domestic sight deposits CHF 484.2 bn vs CHF...
JP Morgan slashes China full year GDP growth forecast to 5.0% from 5.5% previously
> JP Morgan slashes China full year GDP growth forecast to 5.0% from 5.5% previously This adds to the growing chorus of pessimism towards the China outlook <!--> Justin Low Monday, 17/07/2023 | 07:58 GMT-0 17/07/2023 | 07:58 GMT-0 --> <!--> In case...
European equities open lower to start the new week
Eurostoxx -0.6%Germany DAX -0.4%France CAC 40 -0.8%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX flatIt's a softer open but nothing that is too outstanding after the strong gains last week. US futures are also looking more tepid, down roughly 0.1% at the moment. It's a relatively quiet...
Aussie slightly lower after China GDP data earlier
The antipodeans are the slight laggards as we get into European trading today, with AUD/USD down 0.4% to 0.6810 currently. This comes after the China Q2 GDP data earlier here. While there was a beat in the quarterly estimate, the focus seems to be on the yearly...
Market Update – July 17 – Digesting the strong American data
Week 29 begins with futures slightly negative and APAC in red: China is heavy (-1.48%) after the disappointing GDP Y/Y figure (+6.3% vs +7.2% exp), falling retail sales growing only +3.1% (vs +18% 3 months ago) and the PBOC that left its midterm lending facility...
US Dollar Finds Traction While China GDP Misses Estimates. Where to for USD?
The US Dollar consolidated to start the week while soft Chinese GDP numbers highlight growing concern for the economic recovery there. With the Fed in a blackout, where to for USD?US Dollar, DXY Index, USD, China, Risk Off, Fed, FOMC, India, ECB - Talking PointsThe US...
Trade ideas thread – European session 17 July 2023
Is the dollar rout set to continue? Well, if you look at the charts for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF, there are strong arguments for that. But in the case of USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD, perhaps the dollar has managed to find some footing. I'll get into...
FX option expiries for 17 July 10am New York cut
There aren't any significant expiries to take note of for today. As such, trading sentiment will continue to revolve around the technicals for the most part. And in the case of FX since last week, dollar sentiment will also play a big role in price action as we get...
The Fed and ECB may not be the biggest central bank risks to markets this month
The recent strength in the Japanese yen has in part to do with a stronger correction after the sharp fall in the currency itself in the past few months. But I would argue that a part of that also seems to do with some hawkish speculation surrounding the BOJ later this...
European Central Bank speakers Monday include Lagarde, Lane, Panetta
0815 GMT/ 0415 US Eastern time: Pre-recorded welcome address by President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde at 9th ECB conference on central, eastern and south-eastern European (CESEE) countries "Changing geopolitical landscape – economic implications for...