Prior 4.0%CPI MoM 0.2% % versus 0.3% expectedPrior MoM 0.1%CPI YoY 3.0% versus 3.0% expectedCore CPI MoM 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. Last month 0.4%Core CPI YoY 4.8% versus 5.0% expected. Last month was 5.3%Shelter 0.4% versus 0.6% last month. Year on year 7.8% versus...
US CPI will be released at 8:30 AM. What is expected?
On the economic calendar, the US CPI data will be released at 8:30 AM. Although the numbers are not likely to impact the July Fed decision (a 25 bp hike is pretty much all baked in the cake), it COULD be a difference between one more hike and no more hikes in 2023....
The JPY is the strongest and the is the weakest as the NA session begins
The strongest to the weakest of the major indicesThe JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session beginsOvernight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to maintain its official cash rate (OCR) at 5.5%, a move that was broadly anticipated...
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar tentative awaiting US CPI
Headlines:Markets:JPY leads, GBP lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%US 10-year yields down 3.8 bps to 3.944%Gold up 0.2% to $1,935.18WTI crude up 0.3% to $75.04Bitcoin up 0.5% to $30,726It was a quieter session in Europe today as all...
US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 7 July +0.9% vs -4.4% prior
Prior -4.4%Market index 208.4 vs 206.5 priorPurchase index 165.3 vs 162.4 priorRefinance index 416.0 vs 421.3 prior30-year mortgage rate 7.07% vs 6.85% priorMortgage applications increased slightly in the past week as the jump in purchases activity helped to offset a...
AUD/USD gets checked back ahead of US CPI data
The high earlier hit 0.6741 on the day before the pair is now trading at flat levels at around 0.6685 as dollar bears are being checked back ahead of the US CPI data. The greenback looked like it was poised for a meaningful break across the board but traders seem to...
USD/CHF on the verge of a steeper drop
USD/CHF weekly chartThe pair has been on a steady downtrend since November last year and that run is still very much going. The recent bounces in March and June ran into resistance from its 100-day moving average, and sellers leaned on that to keep the momentum going....
GBP/USD stays on the hunt of the 1.3000 mark
GBP/USD daily chartThe pair is looking particularly buoyed this week, helped out by a technical break above the June highs but also after the hot wages data from the UK labour market report yesterday. A softer dollar is also contributing to all that and we are seeing...
EUR/USD eyes April and May highs in latest push above 1.1000
The dollar is in a particularly vulnerable state right now and there are a couple of key technical developments playing out. In the case of EUR/USD, the pair is finding momentum to push back above 1.1000 again this week but now faces key resistance from the April to...
BOE’s Bailey: UK economy, financial system have been resilient so far
FPC will remain vigilant as impact of higher rates feed throughTighter bank lending standards reflect appropriate risk judgementStrong UK labour market reduces stress on households from higher ratesThese are just some token remarks by Bailey. As things stand, it...
Underestimated Target for Bad Times. Target Stock Forecast
A potentially looming crisis in the US presents an opportunity to find stocks that can defy prevailing trends in tough times and might be underestimated right now. Target Corporation appears to possess both of these characteristics. Let’s try to investigate if it’s...
Higher Japanese yields tees up potential for another BOJ disappointment
The Japanese yen has been on a tear in the past week, with USD/JPY falling all the way back below 140.00 now with the low earlier touching 139.31. While a technical correction may be overdue and a softer dollar also contributed to that, one reason that should not be...
European equities keep firmer at the open today
Eurostoxx +0.4%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX +0.2%Equities are looking for a further bounce this week after last week's losses and it's been a pretty straightforward one so far. The US CPI data later is the key risk event to watch and a...
Spain June final CPI +1.9% vs +1.9% y/y prelim
HICP +1.6% vs +1.6% y/y prelimNo changes to the initial estimates and while the headline figures are a welcome development, core annual inflation is only seen easing slightly from 6.1% in May to 5.9% in June. That's still a long way to go in the climb lower to 2% and...
BOE: Global economic outlook is highly uncertain, risk environment is challenging
Higher interest payments on loans mean borrowers may struggle with repaymentsThat increases the risks faced by banksBut UK banks are resilient and are strong enough to support their customersCounter cyclical capital buffer maintained at 2%UK households are facing...
Trade ideas thread – European session 12 July 2023
The dollar looks bound for another leg lower now and we might just get a confirmation of that after the US CPI data today. Here's how the charts are playing out:EUR/USD on approach to the April and May highs of 1.1075-95USD/JPY breaking back below the 140.00...
FX option expiries for 12 July 10am New York cut
There aren't any significant expiries to take note of for the day. As such, trading sentiment will continue to revolve around the risk mood and the technicals for the most part. Keep in mind that we also do have headline risks to consider in the day ahead with the US...
US Dollar Slips While Japanese Yen Rallies Ahead of US CPI. New Lows for USD?
US Dollar, USD/JPY, Japanese Yen, NZD/USD, RBNZ, AUD/USD - Talking PointsThe US Dollar wilted across the board today as markets contemplate US CPI aheadThe Japanese Yen strengthened more than most as the BoJ moves into viewThe RBNZ pause its hiking cycle today. If CPI...
RBA’s Lowe says “deadly serious” about getting inflation back to target
Confident that higher interest rates are workingHave an open mind on whether have to tighten policy furtherThis builds on his earlier remarks here. When asked about continuing as RBA governor, he said he would be honoured to keep with the role if asked. For some...
Fed speakers due today include Barkin, Kashkari, Bostic, Mester. Fed Beige book also.
It's a huge day coming up from the Americas.Fed speakers and the Beige Book:1230 GMT/0GMT US Eastern time - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on inflation before the Anne Arundel County Chamber of Commerce1345 GMT/0945 US Eastern time -...