People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading...
Opinion is split on the potential for the US SEC to approve a spot BTC ETF
A couple of divergent opinions doing the rounds on Monday:Bank of America:not optimistic about any imminent approvalmade the point that the SEC is skeptical about crypto trading platformsAnd: “For a historical perspective, silver futures began trading in 1933, but the...
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Westpac Australian consumer sentiment +2.7% m/m in July (prior +0.2%)
Westpac July 2023 Australian consumer sentiment survey, +2.7% m/m in July to 81.3prior 79.2+2.7% is the biggest gain since April WPAC comment: "The key message is that sentiment is probably not going to stage a sustained lift from current deeply pessimistic levels...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2177 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
USD/JPY forecast as low as 136 (end-2023) – watch the Fed, not the BOJ
This snippet from Westpac on what they expect for USD/JPY, and why:Whether the Bank of Japan decides to loosen Yield Curve Control or raise the level of interest rates outright is arguably not the primary point to focus on for the Yen’s outlook. In our view, instead...
ICYMI – UK Chancellor Hunt said working with Bank of England to bring inflation back to 2%
The UK's finance minister Jeremy Hunt gave a speech alongside Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at the City of London's annual Mansion House dinner on Monday evening UK time.Greg had the details of Bailey's speech:Hunt fell into line, saying the UK government...
Australian weekly consumer confidence survey falls again, to 73.3 (prior 74.1)
The ANZ - Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey is conducted weekly. Its running along close to its 3 year low. ANZ comments:Consumer Confidence fell despite the RBA leaving the cash rate unchangedSmall gains in current and future financial conditions and in future...
Australian private survey of household spending drops 1.7% m/m in June (prior +3.1%)
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
ICYMI: ECB’s Herodotou spoke Monday, said high inflation worse than high interest rates
Constantinos Herodotou is Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus and a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. He spoke overnight on Monday, headlines: Inflation is worse than high ratesMonetary policy tightening only tool to fight inflationHigh...
UK Data – BRC like for like retail sales rose 4.2% y/y in June (prior was +3.7%)
British Retail Consortium data for June 2023like-for-like sales +4.2% y/y (prior +3.7%)total retail sales +4.9% y/y (prior +3.9% )The BRC sais that unusually hot weather boosted sales of swimwear, beach towels and outdoor games as well as garden furniture and barbecue...
JP Morgan says OPEC+ needs to cut output by another 700,000 barrels/day in H2 & into 2024
A note from analysts at JP Morgan on oil and OPEc+. Says the oil price has gotten away from OPEC+, due to added supply from producers outside its membership, and the cartel is going to have to cut production even further. Main points:Supply growth outside of the OPEC+...
Standard Chartered have pumped their 2024 bitcoin forecast to as high as US$120,000
Crypto analysts at Standard Chartered have boosted their Bitcoin forecast:to USD 50,000 in 2023and to as high as USD 120,000 in 2024 (from $100K in April, analysts at the bank now say this call has a 20% upside)Citing:"Increased miner profitability per BTC (bitcoin)...
ICYMI – IEA boss Birol said China oil demand set to strengthen, sees H2 oil mkt tightness
The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol spoke with Reuters on Monday.“Even in sluggish economic growth, China and other developing countries’ demand is strong” “Taken together with the production cuts coming from key producing countries, we still...
ICYMI – ECB’s Nagel said euro-area inflation is still too high
Germany's Bundesbank President and European Central Bank Governing Council member Nagel spoke Monday, maintaining his hawkish credentials. Headline comments:euro-area inflation remains too high GDP may slow but convinced hard landing can be avoidedvaluation levels for...
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 10 Jul.Used car prices help to send yields / USD lower
The USD was the strongest of the major currencies at the start of the NY session but started to move lower in the NY session helped by lower yields. Although the AUD is the weakest of the major currencies today, the USD is only closing higher vs the AUD, and CAD. The...
Barclays expects US equities to fall in H2 of 2023, forecasts S&P500 at 4150 by year-end
Barclays does not expect the tech-centric rally seen so far this year to spread more broadly to the rest of the index. forecasts S&P 500 at 4150 by year-end (previously had estimated 3725)expects equities to remain range boundsees full-year S&P 500 earnings...
BoA says stagflation (a worst case scenario) risk could send EUR/USD down to parity
Bank of America warns of a worst-case scenario of stagflation, a combination of economic stagnation and inflation, which it sees as not unlikely and which could potentially drive the EUR/USD exchange rate to parity. Key Points: 1. Stagflation Scenario: BofA has...
Economic calendar in Asia Tuesday, 11 July 2023 – Australian business confidence
It's a light calendar for the session ahead in Asia. I don't expect the data from Australia to shift around AUD too much at all, eyes are on global developments and in this timezone that is pretty much China and how the yuan is moving. A stronger yuan tends to be...
US major injuries make a push higher into the close
It wasn't a huge day but the major indices are closed near their session highs. The gains were led by the Dow industrial average which saw an increase by 0.63%.The final numbers show:Dow industrial average rose 211.35 points or 0.63% at 33946.24S&P index rose...