Conflicting headlines out of the UK:British retail consortium August total sales +4.1% y/y vs July +1.5% British retail consortium August like-for-like sales +4.3% y/y vs July +1.8% Barclay UK August consumer spending +2.8% y/y vs July +4.0% the bank blamed on a...
South Korean August CPI has risen at its fastest m/m rate since January 2017
Inflation data from South Korea for August 2023:+1% m/m (expected +0.3%)+3.4% y/y (expected +2.7%)August core CPI +3.3% y/y (was 3.3% in July)These results raise the question, again, if the biggest drops in inflation, across the globe not just in SK, have been seen...
ANZ is targeting 150 on USD/JPY, but is wary of verbal yen intervention
Following up on this from last week:More:ANZ ... targeting a move toward 150. The bank believes that this trajectory will hold unless there's a substantial shift in the rate outlook for either the U.S. or Japan. While intervention from policymakers could pose a risk,...
ICYMI – ECB’s Nagel says the Bank’s mandate is price stability, not to make banks happy
Joachim Nagel is president of the Deutsche Bundesbank and thus a key member of the European Central Bank Governing Council. He spoke on Monday in Frankfurt, but didn't have much to say on monetary policy. He did say that inflation is still much too high — and that’s...
Turn the machines back on! Globex is open.
US equity index futures are open for trade on Globex, along with other contracts too of course, interest rates and what have you. The CME shut down Globex for a few hours for the US Labor Day holiday. Cash markets were completely closed for the day. These reopen...
Bank of Canada preview – “Canadian growth shocker confirms … pause” – CAD forecast
The Bank of Canada meet on Wednesday, 6 September 2023. The decision is due at 1400 GMT, which is 10 am Eastern time. The consensus is for the Bank of Canada to hold its key interest rate steady at 5.00%.Preview comments from ING (this in brief from a longer...
Heads up for more work stoppages at Australian LNG projects
Headlines via Reuters on further disruptions ahead: Australia union: serves further notice of protected industrial action at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG projects in AustraliaAustralia union: new protected industrial action notice will escalate work bans, will...
Preview: Reserve Bank of Australia widely expected to leave its cash rate unchanged today
The Reserve Bank of Australia September meeting is coming up on Tuesday September 5. The statement will be published at 2.30pm local time in Sydney, which is 0430 GMT and 2230 US Eastern time on Monday, 4 September 2023.Preview comments via TD:We expect the RBA to...
Goldman Sachs – more aggressive OPEC+ price target is a risk to its Brent oil $93 forecast
Goldman Sachs have a USD93 / barrel as a 12-month forecast Goldman Sachs still sees a potentially more aggressive OPECc+ price target as key moderately bullish risk to this forecastGS says "We no longer expect a Saudi announcement this week of a partial October unwind...
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: No drama on Labor Day
Markets:WTI crude up 43-cents to $85.98GBP leads, USD lagsUS/Canada bonds and equities closedThere wasn't much to report in terms of price action in North American trading. The holidays in the US and Canada kept a lid on the market and there wasn't any news to jar...
Economic calendar in Asia – Tuesday, 5 September 2023 – RBA interest rate decision
The RBA statement headlines the data agenda for the Asian session. Earlier:The earliest indications for August inflation in Australia won't trouble the RBA too much, but they won't shrug them off either: This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access...
Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 5 September 2023
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Biden sounds surprisingly optimistic on autoworker strike
US President Joe Biden is in Philadelphia today for a Labor Day speech and sounded surprisingly optimistic about an autoworkers deal.“I’m not worried about a strike. I don’t think it’s going to happen,” Biden told reporters.UAW members voted to authorize a strike last...
Oil gains for the eighth consecutive day in highest close since November
WTI crude oil dailyMarkets are generally closed today but oil traded electronically and it picked up from where it left off last week. WTI crude climbed for the eighth day in a row, rising 38-cents to $85.93. Market watchers have been impressed by drawdowns in visible...
What’s priced in for the Bank of England
The market continues to anticipate a Bank of England rate hike later this month and the strong possibility of another one in November.High UK inflation is problematic for the Bank of England as it tries to tame runaway inflation but chief economist Hew Pill wants to...
Tesla is doing its part to fight inflation
These price decreases of 28% and 34% for high-end Tesla models are like a rorschach test for market watchers. I have heard so many takes on what this means for Tesla and automotive economics:Tesla demand has fallenEV costs have fallenTesla is aggressively trying to...
European equity close: Sluggish finish after a good start
European equities opened the week with some nice gains but they slowly evaporated before some heavier selling in the final hour.Closing changes:Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.2%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%French CAC -0.3%Italy MIB -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.4%Fourth day in a row of...
Steady bleed for European stocks after a solid open
The German DAX index has fallen through Friday's low and is now down 0.1% on the session. It opened solidly higher but there's been steady selling since that's accelerated as we move into the final hour of trading.It could be that a pirate has taken over Germany.Olaf...
ECB’s Lagarde: It’s critical for central banks to keep inflation expecations anchored
It is exactly when people are paying most attention that central banks should deliver their key communication to ensure that those expectations remain firmly anchoredIt will be critical for central banks to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored while these...
The hurricane map is mostly subdued but there’s a disturbance in the mid-Atlantic
Florida continues to clean up from Hurricane Idalia but the season so far has been largely a non-event for the energy market. For the next week that will continue to be the case as we move through the peak of the hurricane season.At the moment,a couple storms are...