High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Goldman Sachs now expect only a 20% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months
Goldman Sachs preface their expectation with "We see a below-consensus" ...GS have been consistently below consensus with this expectation. We see a below-consensus 20% probability of entering a recession over the next year as we think taming inflation will not...
Australia Manufacturing PMI final for August: 49.6 (prior 49.6) & strongest since February
The preliminary for the Judo Bank / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI can be found here:From the report today: “The PMI index, which incorporates a range of sub-indexes to capture the cyclical position of the manufacturing sector was unchanged at 49.6 in August, the...
The Hong Kong exchange opening has been delayed due to approaching super typhoon
We had the heads up on this likelihood of this yesterday:From HK:Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limted (HKEX) announces that morning trading in its securities market today (Friday), including Stock Connect Northbound trading and derivatives market, has been delayed...
JP Morgan revise their Q3 US real GDP forecast to 3.5% (from 2.5%)
JP Morgan have lifted their economic growth projection based on a 'strong start for consumer'. Citing (in summary):The main details of the July personal income and spending report came out pretty close to our expectations. Real consumption jumped 0.6% in July, nominal...
New Zealand data – August consumer confidence 85.0 (vs. prior 83.7)
The latest from the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index, for August 2023.Up 1.6% m/m to 85.0 and still deeply pessimisticJuly was -2.1% to 83.7ANZ note two key points:Consumer confidence rose 1 point in August to 85.0, with the lift driven by an increase in the...
New Zealand’s main opposition party wants to quickly remove the RBNZ’s dual mandate
Nicola Willis is the finance spokesperson for New Zealand's main opposition party. Willis spoke in an interview with Bloomberg TV and said that if her party won power it'd quickly remove the employment mandate from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, leaving only the...
Goldman Sachs says new China property buying rules could give a ‘modest’ growth impulse
The People's Bank of China announced the lowering of existing mortgage interest rates for first-time homebuyers as well as the downpayment ratio in some cities. Info on this is here:Separate to that from the PBOC two more major cities in China said they would allow...
China to cut home-buyers’ minimum down payment, and mortgage rates
A joint statement from the People's Bank of China and National Administration of Financial Regulation on Thursday China time that homebuyers' minimum down payment will be reduced and banks will be allowed to lower rates on existing mortgages.first-time homebuyers'...
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar backs off ahead of non-farm payrolls, oil jumps
Markets:WTI crude up $1.95 to $83.58US 10-year yields down 0.1 bps to 4.11%Gold down $3 to $1939S&P 500 down 0.1%JPY leads, EUR lagsComing into the session, eyes were on the euro after the ECB's Schnabel highlighted the slowing eurozone economy. Those comments...
ICYMI – China’s Industrial Bank cuts yuan deposit rates
Thursday evening news from China:China's Industrial Bank says it'll cut its yuan deposit rates by 10-25 basis points, effective from Friday, 1 September 2023.one-year deposit rate will be cut by 10 bps to 1.75%two-year deposit rate will be cut by 20 bps to 2.00%three-...
ICYMI: China’s State Council announced an income tax reduction aimed at consumption boost
Chinese state media, Xinhua, had the news that the State Council issued a statement that China will further reduce individual income tax for those who have children to raise or elderly to support.the measure includes higher additional deductions for individual income...
US equity close: Late selling leads to a mixed day
SPX intradayUS equities gave up gains in the final 15 minutes of trading to finish narrowly negative. That caps a losing month for US exchanges but it wasn't as bad as it was midway through August. Yields fell this week and that sparked a turnaround in tech.As for...
Economic calendar in Asia Friday, 1 September 2023 – another Manufacturing PMI from China
The official PMIs from China on Thursday were a mixed bag with an improvement but still contraction for manufacturing and a slip lower but still expansion for services:Today it's the privately surveyed PMI from Caixin/S&P Global. This is expected to be still in...
Trade ideas thread – Friday, 1 September 2023
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Bitcoin falls 4% as SEC delays decisions on spot ETFs
Bitcoin was already down about 4% before the latest news hit on the SEC delaying decisions on bitcoin spot ETFs from WisdomTree, Invesco and Valkyrie.The delay was largely expected so there might be a 'sell the rumour, buy the fact' trade in the works here. But it's...
Non-farm payrolls preview: Why August jobs are likely to disappoint
nonfarm payrollsWe won't have to wait long for the non-farm payrolls report as the calendar turns to September on a Friday. There's a big quirk in the August jobs report, as the initial data tends to run below the consensus. It's missed to the downside (before...
Oil climbs for the sixth straight day as it settles at the highs
Russia's Novak offered a cryptic hint about what's coming to the oil market next today, saying that OPEC+ will decide on future policy next week. That's not something that was on the schedule but leaves the market uncertain of what's to come. Initially the reaction...
The Nasdaq continues to drive US equities
Nasdaq Comp dailyThe S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are flat today but the Nasdaq is up another 0.5% in the fifth straight day of gains. Memory and chipmakers are leading the way:WDC +6.6%MU +3.1%AVGO +2.8%INTC +2.2%But Amazon +2% and Shopify +9.6% are other tech...
VinFast Stock Surged: All You Need to Know
Vietnamese electric vehicle manufacturer unexpectedly emerged as one of the most valuable carmakers in the world. When we are writing this article, VinFast’s capitalization is being exceeded only by Tesla and Toyota. But chances are, you've likely never even heard of...