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US debt limit bill advances to House for voting
The US House committee examining the bill has votes to advance it to the House for a vote. The bill will suspend the debt ceilingThe House is expected to vote on it Wednesday and then send it to the Senate. Indications so far are that the bill will pass and the debt...
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe testimony recap – pain ahead for households
Comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe are here from earlier:Reuters have popped up a recap of his testimony:"Mid-2025 is pressing the length of time we can reasonably take, because if we take longer than that, people may reasonably say: 'Are you...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0764 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says higher CPI is supply-driven inflation
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda In response to supply-driven inflation , central banks' decision making faces the difficult dilemma between considerations of economic activity and the need to tackle surging inflationIncrease in inflationary pressure has been caused by...
Goldman Sachs China PMI preview – leading indicator suggests manufacturing stabilising
Goldman Sachs’s China economist cites China’s emerging industries purchasing managers index (EPMI):recorded an uptick in MayEPMI is widely seen as a leading indicator of China’s official manufacturing PMIsuggests that “a tentative sign that manufacturing activity may...
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Japan data: April Industrial Production (preliminary) -0.4% m/m (expected 1.5%)
Japanese April Industrial Production (preliminary) -0.4% m/m, first fall in 3 monthsexpected 1.5%, prior 1.1%for the y/y -0.3%expected +2.0% prior -0.6%April retail sales data have missed also:-1.2% m/mexpected +0.5%, prior +0.3%+5.0% y/yexpected +7.1%, prior...
PIMCOs base case is an Australian recession, expecting a soft landing is a fool’s paradise
Remarks recently from PIMCO co-head of Asia Pacific Portfolio Management Rob Mead:Australia is fast approaching a mortgage cliff for fixed rate mortgageswill place further pressure on households and the economy[fixed rate loans] ... got to almost 50 per cent in the...
UK business confidence slips lower in May
Lloyds Bank Business Barometer, a measure of sentiment amongst British businesses, fell to 28% in May from 33% in AprilMay is the first drop in 3 monthsbusinesses' optimism about the wider economy fell by six points to 22%trading prospects for the next twelve months...
RBA Gov Lowe says wage growth has not been a source of inflation
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe is testifying in parliament:Lowe says wage growth has not been a source of inflation RBA is in data-dependent modemonetary policy in in restrivice territorythere is not a single variable that drives RBA policy decisionsinflation...
Dow Jones, S&P 500 Retreat from Highs as US Debt Deal Alludes to Fiscal Tightening
Dow Jones, S&P 500, US Debt Ceiling Deal, Spending Cuts – Asia-Pacific Briefing:Dow Jones, S&P 500 reverse intraday gains as markets digest debt dealUnofficial estimates point to potential fiscal spending cuts of $1 trillionThis could raise the risk and the...
AUD heads up – Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe testifying in Parliament real soon
> Central Banks > AUD heads up - Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe testifying in Parliament real soon Central Banks <!--> --> <!--> --> <!--> From 2300 GMT, which is 7pm US Eastern time. I'll have the headlines but if you'd like a...
Oil – Cushing stockpiles mount, up 1mn+ barrels according to Wood Mackenzie data
The report from Wood Mackenzie showed stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point rose 1.05 million barrels in the week ending May 26.Reflected in the near-term discount for spot prices (June) over July, of circa USD0.3/bbl. Indicative of weaker physical...
BoA says the Fed’s 3 conditions for a rate hike have been met
I posted earlier in the week on:As a reminder, in summary, the 3 conditions are:1) strong economic data, 2) an increase in the debt ceiling, and 3) subdued regional bank stressBoA says that, "arguably" the boxes have been tickedwe have checked all these conditionseven...
RBC has hiked its forecast for the US S&P500 index – tech rally
With tech-led sectors surging a snippet from RBC shows analysts at the firm are looking for the benchmark US index to finish the year with an around 10% gain. year-end target for the S&P 500 is 4,250their target was previously at 4,1002023 S&P 500 EPS forecast...
Japan has issued an emergency warning /evacuation notice over North Korea missile threat
The Japanese government have broadcast an emergency warning over its J-Alert systemevacuation order issued for residents due to the North Korean missile threatemergency warning for the Okinawa region-North Korea has fired what appears to be a ballistic missile says...
PIMCO says a US recession is its base case, possibility it’s a deep one
Add this to the recession calls for the US economy. Via PIMCO head of agency mortgage portfolio management Hyman:a recession is looking likely for the US “That’s now our base case""If you look back at historical hiking cycles that’s typically how they end, they cause...
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 30 May: US yields move lower helped by sharply lower oil
The JPY is the strongest of the major currencies, while the AUD is the weakest. The USD - which was the weakest of the majors at the start of the day - recovered modestly in the US session, but remains mostly lower thanks largely to declines vs the GBP (-0.54%) and...
ECB’s Centeno said inflation is easing, doesn’t see a risk of monetary policy overshoot
Bank of Portugal´s governor, and therefore ECB Governing Council member, Mario Centeno spoke at an event in Barcelona on Tuesday.Main points of relevance he made:Spain's CPI reading shows that Europe's inflation is easingReversal of supply shock should slow...