Always a hot topic, the 'de-dollarization' discussion, as this piece says that occurs "mainly on social media platforms". And that's its "feisty". It sure is, the USD dominance upsets a lot of people. Such as the crypto folks, the PRC, Russia, Iran and North Korea....
Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist says US soft landing ahead, recession is avoidable
Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter spoke in an interview (full transcript here) ICYMI.In brief:a soft landing for the U.S. economy is still in the cardsa recession is avoidableJob market is strong. But it's slowing. Spending has started to moderate,...
BoA expects a softer USD in the next 18 months, not optimistic on tech driven productivity
Bank of America (BofA) has revealed its base case for the foreign exchange market, with a stance that is less techno-optimistic. The bank anticipates moderate softness in the US dollar (USD) through to the end of next year, 2024. Key Points: 1. Moderate USD Softness...
Australia data – June Services PMI 50.3 (prior 52.1)
The Judo Bank / S&P Global PMI for June 2023 Services 50.3 prior 52.1Composite 50.1prior 51.6Flash reading is here:Australia preliminary PMI: Manufacturing 48.6 (prior 48.4) & Services 50.7 (prior 52.1)And, earlier this week we had the final for manufacturing...
Société Générale forecast USD/CNY as high as 7.40
Soc Gen on the sliding yuan, forecasting USD/CNY to 7.30 in Q3 of this yearand to 7.40 in Q4 2023 & Q1 2024SG say that Market enthusiasm about China’s reopening didn't last longEven some of the more resilient indicators failed to mask the country’s structural...
China has cancelled a trip by European Union’s Borrell scheduled for next week
I just posted this on the threat China's export curbs pose to Germany:Posting this now on more signs of the new cold war. China has cancelled a trip by European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell that was scheduled for next week.The info came overnight via a...
ICYMI: German Econ Minister Habeck says China limiting lithium supply would be a problem
Greg had the breaking on Monday:And Adam with what comes next:German Economy Minister Robert Habeck has sounded the alarm bell already:said the government in Berlin must “learn the lesson from recent years in terms of what a certain sovereignty in production, energy...
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Bridgewater CIO says its an awful idea to use ChatGPT, other language bots, to pick stocks
Bridgewater co-CIO Greg Jensen spoke with Bloomberg, saying that large language models like OpenAI's chatbot are "awful" at reading the market."If somebody's going to use large language models to pick stocks, I think that's hopeless – that is a hopeless path,"...
Krugman says US economy strong: low unemployment, falling inflation. Cites reduced misery.
Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman wrote in a New York Times op-ed piece:"The plunge in the misery index reflects both what didn't happen and what did" "What didn't happen, despite a drumbeat of dire warnings in the news media, was a recession. The U.S. economy...
Economic calendar in Asia 05 July 2023 – another PMI from China
It's the services PMI from China today. This doesn't get the focus that the manufacturing PMI gets. And, check out the previous, its solidly in expansion so its not as if we are even sweating it. The official, i.e. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) services PMI is...
Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 5 July 2023
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Commodities rally with the US out for holiday
Markets:Gold up $4 to $1925WTI crude oil up $1.21 to $71.00NZD leads, EUR lagsToronto TSX Comp +0.2%Bitcoin down $419 to $30,705US markets closed for Independence DayThe US was off for a holiday but it wasn't a dead session, in large part due to the dovish surprise...
Oil climbs $71 but can’t get above the weekly high
The lack of US traders didn't cool the oil market on Tuesday.The initial reaction to oil prices to the Saudi output cut extension and Russian export curbs was positive on Monday but it didn't last long as prices briefly traded lower. Today, the $1.21 gain to $71.00...
Eyes on Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant this week
There is a great deal of buzz on Russian war channels about an attack by Ukraine on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on the night of July 5, which could be interpreted as either tonight or tomorrow.In the Russian framing, this would be an attack on a...
World Meteorological Organization declares onset of El Niño. What it means
A new update from the World Meteorological Organization forecasts that there is a 90% probability of the El Niño event continuing during the second half of 2023.This is no surprise as the US National Weather Service declared that El Niño had arrived last month.The...
Why the Australian dollar rose on a dovish RBA
The Australian dollar is briefly rose above 0.6700 today after the RBA opted to leave interest rates unchanged.It's atypical for a currency to rise after a rate cut and -- as you can see from the chart -- the Australian dollar initially fell on the...
China expected to intensifty retailiatory chip measures. Lithium curbs are the fear.
AI imageThe west and China continue to slip towards a meaningful trade war.The US announced it would curb exports of AI chips to China and now China has announced it will control exports of gallium and germanium, two rare earth metals. The metals are used in...
Brazil’s Lula backs a common currency for trade between Mercosur countries
There is room for Mercosur to increase trade with Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and PeruCommitted to completing EU trade deal, but some proposals by EU are 'unacceptable'In advance talks for deals with Canada, South Korea and SingaporeA common currency is an interesting...
New Zealand GDT price index -3.3%
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...