Yesterday Bitcoin jumped following the news that Greyscale won the lawsuit against the SEC as the D.C. court ruled that the SEC improperly rejected the Bitcoin spot ETF. This was seen as a positive news as Greyscale will have to reapply for a spot ETF but that an ETF...
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steadies itself, mixed German states CPI
Headlines:Markets:GBP leads, JPY lags on the dayEuropean equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%US 10-year yields up 3.3 bps to 4.155%Gold flat at $1,937.82WTI crude up 0.7% to $81.21Bitcoin down 0.7% to $27,396After the sharp moves yesterday, things are looking...
US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 25 August +2.3% vs -4.2% prior
Prior -4.2%Market index 189.0 vs 184.8 priorPurchase index 144.9 vs 142.0 priorRefinance index 407.1 vs 397.1 prior30-year mortgage rate 7.31% vs 7.31% priorIt's a minor bump in mortgage activity after five straight weeks of declines. So, that should put things into...
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – The bearish bias remains intact
Yesterday Bitcoin jumped following the news that Greyscale won the lawsuit against the SEC as the D.C. court ruled that the SEC improperly rejected the Bitcoin spot ETF. This was seen as a positive news as Greyscale will have to reapply for a spot ETF but that an ETF...
ECB’s Centeno: Even if we pause, saying we are done would be the wrong message
Need to be very cautious about policy decisionsA lot has already been doneHe's not giving much away but the ECB will have a tough time trying to manage market expectations at this point. Inflation is still keeping rather stubborn and the "safe bet" would be to raise...
Germany’s Scholz: There are signs that economic upswing will start at some point
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
ECB’s Centeno: Growth indicators have been surprising to the downside recently
The downside risks to growth outlined in June projections are materialisingAnd I reckon they will have to adjust the more pessimistic growth scenarios in September again. But given the stubbornness of inflation, it seems like the ECB may yet have to lean towards one...
Copper Technical Analysis – Watch this major triangle pattern
Global growth seems to be more and more in peril as the economic data for many advanced countries is starting to roll over and some even continues to slip further contraction. The Chinese authorities don’t look intentioned to flood the economy with more stimulus as...
Stocks Resume Their Bullish Run; FTSE 100, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones
Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel RudolphFtse 100, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Analysis and ChartsFTSE 100 has broken through its downtrend lineThe FTSE 100 has now broken through its July-to-August downtrend line, tracking Wall Street higher following weak US...
Saxony August CPI +6.8% vs +6.7% y/y prior
It truly is a mixed bag for the inflation readings for German states today. But considering the latest one from Saxony here, at the balance it suggests a slightly stronger than expected annual headline inflation reading at the national level. The estimate for the...
GBPJPY Technical Analysis – The bias is starting to turn more bearish
UK:The BoE hiked by 25 bps as expected. The central bank seems to be leaning more on the less hawkish side as a key line in the statement was tweaked to indicate the propensity for a “higher for longer” stance rather than keeping with additional rate hikes. Recent key...
UK July mortgage approvals 49.44k vs 51.00k expected
Prior 54.66k; revised to 54.61kMortgage approvals fall further in the UK in July and that's another sign that higher rates are weighing on housing market conditions. Meanwhile, net borrowing of consumer credit by individuals fell to £1.2 billion in July, down from...
Bond futures at interesting levels despite the volatility
Since the BOE was the first to raise rates in November 2021, followed in February 2022 by the Fed and finally in June 2022 by the ECB, the (continuous) futures on the respective 10-year rates have had a hard time: the UK GILT suffered the most, marking -25% in price,...
German states’ CPI a mixed bag, ECB rate hike odds trimmed
And that is down from around ~61% earlier here. So far, the German states' CPI data is a bit of a mixed bag but at least it doesn't show a consistent upside surprise to the inflation numbers this month. North Rhine Westphalia (5.9% vs 5.8% prior) and Baden...
Eurozone August final consumer confidence -16.0 vs -16.0 prelim
Economic confidence 93.3 vs 93.7 expectedPrior 94.5Industrial confidence -10.3 vs -9.9 expectedPrior -9.4; revised to -9.3Services confidence 3.9 vs 4.2 expectedPrior 5.7; revised to 5.4The data seems to be released early (supposed to be at 0900 GMT), or at least this...
Switzerland August Credit Suisse investor sentiment -38.6 vs -32.6 prior
Prior -32.6Swiss investor sentiment falls further on the month as sentiment remains rather downbeat on the economic outlook. Credit Suisse does note that most analysts expect the SNB to raise its key rates once again in Q3 amid an anticipated rise in inflation this...
Bavaria August CPI +5.9% vs +6.1% y/y prior
Some other state readings released at the same time:Hesse CPI +6.0% y/yPrior +6.1%Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +7.0% y/yPrior +6.8%This is quite a mixed bag as Bavaria and Hesse both show a slight drop in headline annual inflation in August compared to July. However, Baden...
Dollar keeps steadier so far on the day
As bond yields find some footing today, so is the dollar. USD/JPY is up 0.4% to 146.48 currently near the highs for the day as the dollar is steadying itself after the fall yesterday - which I would still argue is in part to do with a squeeze as noted here.EUR/USD is...
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – The bearish signs keep on accumulating
Global growth seems to be more and more in peril as the economic data for many advanced countries is starting to roll over and some even continues to slip further contraction. The Chinese authorities don’t look intentioned to flood the economy with more stimulus as...
European equities mostly little changed at the open today
Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX flatFrance CAC 40 flatUK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX -0.1%This mirrors the tepid mood in US futures, which are keeping flattish right now. I reckon investors are looking to bonds once again and so far the strong bids from yesterday are not following...