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US non-farm payrolls have beaten the consensus 13 times in a row and the market will try to stretch that unprecendented streak a week from today.Overall, the week promises a number of key economic data releases that could move the market but the week starts quietly on...
The repricing of Fed hikes higher for longer has been felt in USD/JPY more than anywhere else in the forex market. The pair has risen in 10 of the past 12 trading sessions and one of those declines was only 6 pips.At the moment, the pair is carving out a new high that...
The hardest part of any deal is always at the end. The two sides met virtually today and we're not at the finish line.“We continue to have major issues that we have not bridged the gap on,” Garret Graves said. He was asked if he'd drop demand for work requirements, he...
The IMF is out with its latest review of the US economy and it paints a picture of stumbling growth and inflation slowly returning to target.PCE inflation 3.8% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024Unemployment rate 3.8% in 2023 and 4.4% in 2024Fed funds at end-2024 4.9%Full...
Total rigs -9 at 711Oil rigs -5 at 570Natural gas rigs -4 at 137Looking back toward the beginning of the year, the rig count on January 13 showed:Total rigs: 775Oil rigs: 623Gas rigs: 150 Crude oil is trading up $0.68 at $72.51. For the day, the high price reached...
NZDUSD tumble lower this weekThe NZDUSD has tumbled 3.6% this week with the last 4 trading days to the downside. That is the biggest move lower since September 19, 2022. This week, the RBNZ raise rates by 25 basis points, but the hike was considered dovish as signals...
GOP McHenry is saying that:That debt ceiling talks are progressing, but...Warns that remaining issues become more difficult as more progress is madeDeal needs to be made in next day or 2 or 3.The clock continues to tick, but stock markets remain positive:S&P index...
Atlanta Fed GDPNowThe Atlanta for GDPNow model for 2Q growth tumbled to 1.9% from 2.9% previously. In their own words:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.9 percent on May 26, down from 2.9...
Barclays sees the Bank of England on hiking beyond June with additional 25 basis point hike in August for a 5% terminal rate.The Bank of England hiked rates to 4.5% on May 11. The CPI data this week came in higher than expectations at 8.7% versus 8.2%. Moreover, the...
GBP/USD Prices, Charts, and AnalysisGilt yields push sharply higher on renewed UK rate hike expectations.IMF does a 180 on UK growth prospects.Little in the way of UK data next week. Recommended by Nick Cawley How to Trade GBP/USD Get My Guide UK headline inflation...
S&P index tests its 100 week moving averageThe S&P index is trading up 45.11 points or 1.08% at 4196.40. Its high price reached 4202.92. That took the price back above its 100-week moving average at 4200.13. Last week, the price also moved above that moving...
Prior was +3.8%Six-month trimmed mean annualized +4.4%12-month trimmed mean +4.8%This is a one-month annualized measure from the Dallas Fed and highlights another measure of core inflation.The most significant decreases in the PCE are found in the sectors of spectator...
Stoxx 600 dailyA three-day slump in European stocks came to an end today with a strong rebound.Stoxx 600 +1.2%German DAX +1.2%UK FTSE 100 +0.8%French CAC +1.4%Italy MIB +1.2%Spain IBEX +1.0%On the week:Stoxx 600 -1.4%German DAX -1.5%UK FTSE 100 -1.5%French CAC...
March deficit $44.41B vs $25.75B a year earlierCanada's federal government dramatically trimmed its budget deficit in 2022-23 but it still remains far above pre-pandemic levels. The $41.31B deficit for the complete fiscal year compares to $95.57B a year earlier....
Says she may have to revise up her inflation projections in the next SEP in JuneData confirms inflation is still too highPCE inflation underscored slow progressEverything is on the table for June FOMCFed committed to lowering inflation in a timely wayHasn't seen much...
GBPUSD falls back toward lows for the weekThe GBPUSD moved higher in trading today held by better-than-expected retail sales. The price extended up to and through the falling 100-hour moving average currently at 1.23839 (blue line in the chart above). The price also...
The US dollar is at the best levels of the day and has hit multi-month highs against the yen, New Zealand dollar and euro.It increasingly looks like the dollar is breaking out on a technical basis. USD/JPY cut through 1.40 yesterday and is now up to 140.45 with little...
My lead option is to hike rates in June and July; open about subsequent decisions'Very relaxed' about market pricing of ratesUpward momentum in core inflation has slowed by food price pressure still buildingCan achieve target without recessionHe sounds relaxed about...
Sovereign yields have been reeled in despite the hot US PCE data today and that has helped lift global equities. Ahead of the US long weekend, it's the Nasdaq that's leading the way with a 1.3% rally, followed closely by the S&P 500 up 0.9% and Europe's Stoxx 600...
Details:Current conditions 64.9 vs 64.5 prelim (68.2 prior)Expectations 55.4 vs 53.4 prelim (60.5 prior)1-year inflation 4.2% vs 4.5% prelim (4.6% prior)5-10 year inflation 3.1% vs 3.2% prelim (3.0% prior)This is a great report all around, with sentiment not falling...