We keep hearing from the Fed members that two or more rate hikes this year are likely if the data remains solid. In fact, since the last FOMC meeting, the data indeed kept on surprising to the upside and led to a more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations...
Market Update – June 30 – Eyes on PCE
The surprisingly strong GDP revisions and the drop in jobless claims raised fears the FOMC will have to tighten rates further and boosted Treasury yields higher. The bear flattening trade boosted rates to the highest levels since March, the last time the markets...
Japan’s Matsuno says closely watching FX moves with high sense of urgency
Important for exchange rate to move stably, reflecting economic fundamentalsSharp, one-sided moves are seen recentlyTo take appropriate steps on excessive FX movesThe comments are pretty much a copy and paste, so they're not going to have much of an impact on markets...
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – US Dollar Strength
The Fed members and Fed Chair Powell keep on repeating that they expect two or more rate hikes if the data remains strong. Since the last FOMC meeting, the data kept on surprising to the upside with very strong housing market indicators, solid US Jobless Claims, US...
European equities open slightly higher today
Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX +0.3%This comes after the better performance by the value and heavyweight stocks yesterday, with the Dow rising and the Nasdaq slipping. For now, US futures are keeping steadier as well so that...
Switzerland June KOF leading indicator index 90.8 vs 90.2 prior
Prior 90.2; revised to 91.4There was a higher revision to the reading in May, so that sort of balances out the way this month's figure is being read. That said, the levels are still subdued and points to some lingering concerns about the economic climate.MoneyMaker FX...
France June preliminary CPI +4.5% vs +4.6% y/y expected
Prior +5.1%HICP +5.3% vs +5.4% y/y expectedPrior +6.0%That's a positive development on the face of it but a lot of that still has to do with higher energy prices being phased out. If you look at the breakdown, food prices are still 13.6% higher than they were in June...
UK Q1 final GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% q/q prelim
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
UK June Nationwide house prices +0.1% vs -0.3% m/m expected
Prior +0.1%House prices -3.5% vs -4.0% y/y expectedPrior -3.4%The average house price in the UK moved up slightly in June to £262,239 but annual price growth remains lower as rising rates are starting to weigh on the housing market. There is starting to be a...
Germany May retail sales +0.4% vs 0.0% m/m expected
Prior +0.8%Retail sales -3.6% vs -4.3% y/y expectedPrior -4.3%Despite the beat above, German retail sales is still rather subdued when you look into the details. In real terms, retail sales are still down 3.6% compared to the same period last year as opposed to the...
Germany May import price index -1.4% vs -1.4% m/m expected
Prior -1.7%Import price index -9.1% vs -9.1% y/y expectedPrior -7.0%The drop in import prices has a chunk to do with energy prices, which declined again by another 5.3% on the month. If you strip all of that out, import prices did still fall but by only 0.6% on the...
Trade ideas thread – European session 30 June 2023
It's month-end and quarter-end today and in case you need reminding, we're halfway through 2023 already. The year is really flying by just like that.Major currencies are mostly little changed today as the dollar continues to keep steadier in the big picture. USD/JPY...
FX option expiries for 30 June 10am New York cut
There is just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. And they are both for EUR/USD as we look towards the end of June trading.The expiries are sitting close by to one another at 1.0900 to 1.0940-45, so put together alongside the 100 and 200-hour moving...
RBA to raise cash rate by 25 bps to 4.35% next week – Reuters poll
Of note, 16 of the 31 economists polled are expecting a 25 bps rate hike with the remaining 15 anticipating a pause instead. That's pretty much a 50-50 call and if you look at the OIS pricing, the probability of a 25 bps rate hike is only at 37% as opposed to no...
Euro area inflation in focus on the agenda today
Major currencies are not much changed on the day but all eyes are on the Japanese yen, as the currency weakens to 145 against the dollar earlier in Asia trading. USD/JPY is now at 144.70 as traders are also perhaps taking profits amid fear of intervention by Japan...
USD/JPY knocks on the door of intervention territory
That set it on the path from the break of 140.00 to having touch a high of 145.07 earlier today. The 145.00 mark is where we can start to gauge intervention territory by Japanese officials, something which was pointed out here earlier this month. There has already...
China/Hong Kong Indices Steady After PMI Data: Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite Price Action
HANG SENG, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX - Outlook:China manufacturing activity rose a bit in June.China non-manufacturing activity eased in June.What is the outlook for the Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite Index? Recommended by Manish Jaradi Traits of Successful...
Heads up for a long-weekend US holiday – markets half day Monday, closed Tuesday
It's the US Independence Day holiday weekend ahead. July 4 is the official holiday and markets will be closed:stock exchangesbondsFX (FX never entirely closes but it'll be super-thin, negligible, liquidity)Monday, July 3 will see half-day trade.Even today, June 30, is...
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY hits 145, Suzuki revs up intervention warning
USD/JPY traded briefly above 145.00 in Asia morning trade. The pop higher for USD/JPY prompted a statement from Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki. Such statement have become a regular occurrence as the yen has weakened in past months, they usually follow moves of rapid...
Japan finance minister Suzuki says FX should move stably, reflect fundamentals
Japan finance minister Suzuki, with same-old comments. Some verbal intervention as the yen weakens.NOPE! Here we go, he's adding in something a little more substantial and significant Sharp, one-sided moves seen in FX marketThis is sort of comment is of the type that...