US pending home salesPrior was 0.0%Index 76.5 vs 78.9 priorUS housing data has been strong lately but this is a miss in a forward-looking indicator. There are signs that rate buy-downs are pushing people towards new construction rather than existing homes. The report...
USDJPY overbought but buyers still in control
Trending markets can get overbought and stay overbought. That is the case with the USDJPY.It has been up 6 of the last 7 days (and up strongly in June), and the RSI on the daily is overbought (see video). However, trending markets can get overbought and overbought and...
US stock indices are marginally higher at the open
The major US stock indices are trading marginally higher today. Higher yields after the better data are putting a little lid on gains.The snapshot of the market 7 minutes into the open is showing:Dow up 77 points or 0.25% at 33922.94S&P is up 4.28 points or 0.10%...
GBPUSD falls to support target at 1.2599. Can the price move below the target?
The better claims and GDP has sent the USD higher and the GBPUSD lower. The price low for the GBPUSD has moved down to a downside target at 1.2599 (call it 1.2600). A move below that level is needed to increase the bearish bias technically today with the 50% of the...
Stronger for longer is the US dollar theme
No one thought the US economy would be able to shrug off 5% rates this easily. It has been 20 years since the Fed funds rate was this high and the economy was drunk on easy money during the pandemic.Yet even as the hangover kicks in, Americans are still showing up to...
EURUSD bias shifts back to the downside after better US data, but support still holding
The EURUSD is moving back to the downside after stronger US initial jobless claims data and stronger GDP. The pair has moved back below the 100/200 hour MAs at 1.0919 and 1.09289 respectively (blue and green lines) and is down-testing the low of what is the "value...
Initial jobless claims 239K vs 265K estimate
Initial claims dip in the current weekPrior week 264K revised to 265KSeasonally adjusted initial claims: 239,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week.4-week moving average for initial claims: 257,500, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week.Seasonally...
US Q1 final GDP +2.0% vs +1.4% expected
Preliminary reading was +1.3%Final Q4 reading was +2.6% (unrevised)Consumer spending +4.2% vs +3.8% 2nd readingCore PCE prices +4.9% vs +5.0% expectedPCE prices % vs +4.2% 2nd readingGDP final sales +4.2% vs +3.4% 2nd readingCorporate profits after tax -5.9% vs -6.8%...
The AUD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as the North American session begins.
The strongest to the weakest of the major currenciesThe AUD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is weaker a day after rising sharply. Recall from yesterday, the leaders of major central banks at the European...
Germany June preliminary CPI +6.4% vs +6.3% y/y expected
Prior +6.1%CPI +0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior -0.1%HICP +6.8% vs +6.7% y/y expectedPrior +6.3%HICP +0.4% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior -0.2%The slightly higher reading than estimated here was already predicated by the state readings earlier. In any case, just be...
Equities leaning more positively ahead of US trading
Here's a snapshot of the equities space:Eurostoxx +0.6%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.8%UK FTSE -0.2%S&P 500 futures 0.3%Nasdaq futures +0.4%Dow futures +0.3%Things are improving after a bit of a tepid and flattish start to the session. And that is helping to...
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar mildly lower as risk gradually picks up
Headlines:Markets:AUD leads, USD lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%US 10-year yields up 3.3 bps to 3.744%Gold up 0.2% to $1,910.13WTI crude up 0.5% to $69.89Bitcoin up 1.8% to $30,653There was plenty of central bank talk during the...
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Fed’s Bostic: Nobody should take a signal from my view that we should pause
There are undoubtedly scenarios where we could move at two meetings in a rowI'm not expecting that will happen but if it is what is needed, we'll do itNobody should take a signal from my view that we should pauseI'm less concerned about high inflationDude.. That's...
Fed’s Bostic: I don’t see as much urgency to move as stated by others
We're not seeing inflation moving away from targetI'm comfortable waitingIf inflation seems to significantly stall, then we'll probably do moreJust take note that on the headline remark, he adds that he doesn't share the view of hiking in July - which is a view that...
Gold stays on the corrective path, when will buyers emerge?
It has been quite a straightforward downside move in gold after the break of its 100-day moving average (red line) earlier this month. Price is now down 0.1% to $1,905 levels as sellers stay on the hunt of a push towards the $1,900 mark:Gold (XAU/USD) daily chartThe...
Eurozone June final consumer confidence -16.1 vs -16.1 prelim
Economic confidence 95.3 vs 96.0 expectedPrior 96.5; revised to 96.4Industrial confidence -7.2 vs -5.5 expectedPrior -5.2; revised to -5.3Services confidence 5.7 vs 5.5 expectedPrior 7.0; revised to 7.1There is a slight dip to euro area economic confidence, mainly...
Saxony June CPI +6.8% vs +6.5% y/y prior
This just reaffirms that we should see a slightly higher headline annual inflation reading for Germany later, with the reading set to be somewhere around 6.3% to 6.4% - compared to the 6.1% reading in May. That said, do keep in mind that the "higher" estimate this...
EURUSD – Stuck in the middle with you
It is very difficult to define a precise direction for the EURUSD in 2023. In fact, there is nothing more accurate than to say that the pair is stuck in a sideways range between 1.05 and 1.105 and continues to test first one side and then the other. Only recently, at...
Market Update – June 29 – Stocks mixed as Treasury yields back up
Treasury yields finished at/near the day’s richest levels even as Fed Chair Powell and his G3 colleagues warned of further tightening ahead. However, there were no new insights there to allow dip buyers to provide support. There was also some front-running of...