US:The Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged.Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency and kept all the options on the table.The US economic data keeps on surprising to the upside, but inflation expectations and CPI readings continue to...
Germany Q2 final GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% q/q prelim
GDP (non-seasonally adjusted) -0.6% vs -0.6% y/y prelimGDP (seasonally adjusted) -0.2% vs -0.2% y/y prelimNo changes to the initial estimates as the German economy is seen stagnating in Q2. Given what we're seeing with the numbers so far until August, it is safe to...
Germany Ifo business survey the highlight of the agenda in Europe today
The dollar is looking pretty ahead of European trading, after the ugly reversal in equities yesterday. It's one of those times when market confidence is shaken and sentiment right now is extremely fragile. Whatever case that dip buyers had before the plunge yesterday...
Dollar looking comfortable after ugly equities reversal yesterday
It truly turned out to be a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact when it came to Nvidia earnings. Tech shares were routed once we got to US trading yesterday and dip buyers were scorched. Nasdaq futures were up over 1% in European morning trade but the index ended...
ICYMI: The agenda for the Jackson Hole symposium
Just in case you missed Eamonn's earlier post here, this will just be a rehash of that. Powell will be delivering the opening/keynote speech, which is expected for about 25 minutes, at 1405 GMT. That will be one to watch alongside Lagarde's address at 1900 GMT, so...
BOJ to keep policy as it is until at least July 2024 – poll
5% (1 of 22) expect BOJ to start unwinding ultra-easy policy this year55% expect that to happen some time after July next year73% expect the BOJ to end yield curve control some time next yearOn the final bit, that is seen up from 50% in the July poll at least....
Here’s a $148K forecast for Bitcoin – Halving set up
A forecast for a much higher BTC price from 'Panetra Capital'."Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days prior to the halving, climbed leading into it, and then exploded to the upside afterwards,""The post-halving rallies have averaged 480 days – from the halving to...
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD a little higher again
Moves were not large during the session here today but were characterised by small, but mixed, gains for the USD. EUR, GBP, CHF and CAD are all down a few points while AUD and NZD are more or less unchanged. From Japan today we had Tokyo area CPI data for August (the...
Japan is considering fuel price relief measures
A few comments from Japanese officials on fuel prices. There is nothing concrete and these may not mean much beyond seeking to calm nerves over high fuel prices, not helped by a weak yen of course (Japan imports are more expensive with the slide in the yen).Japanese...
An oil ICYMI – US administration in talks with Venezuela about boosting supply
U.S. officials are proposing to ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector if the country moves towards free elections. \If sanctions are eased it'd allow more US firms, and others, to import Venezuelan crude. Media reports on this cite unnamed sources. It does make...
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will be speaking on Saturday, 26 August 2023 at Jackson Hole
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
European Central Bank President Lagarde will be speaking at Jackson Hole on Friday
The full agenda of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium link is here from earlier:The focus is on Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech. We know the time for this, Friday 25 August at 10.05 AM US Eastern time.However, Lagarde is up soon after and ears will be open...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1883 (vs. estimate at 7.2923)
People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading...
ECB’s Vujcic says eurozone inflation has most likely peaked
Boris Vujčić is Governor of the Croatian National Bank and thus an European Central Bank Governing Council member.He spoke to bgg TV. Snippet:Eurozone economy is basically stagnatingInflation has most likely peakedNeed to seen whether rates are restrictive...
Data from Japan showed Tokyo inflation a touch lower. USD/JPY is back above 146.
The 3 data items of inflation from Japan (Tokyo) were published earlier. 2 of 3 dripped a little lower from the previous month while core-core was unchanged at 4%. All 3 remained well above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. I mentioned in that post how the Bank of Japan...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2923 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
US news – previous US President Trump has been charged in election case
Trump has been charged as a co-conspirator in efforts to illegally overturn the US election in 2020.He was booked at Fulton County jail in Georgia and has been released. Awaiting trial.Innocent until proven guilty is the way the US justice system works. Although I...
Japan data – July PPI Services (Corporate Services Price Index) +1.7% y/y (expected 1.3%)
July 1.7% y/y, a decent sized jump:expected 1.3%, prior 1.4%Japan Services Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices received by service providers (in the private sector) for their services in JapanData published by the Bank of...
All Tokyo area August CPI data comes in way above the 2% BOJ target rate. Again.
The 'ex. Food & Energy' is the closest measure to the US core inflation rate. Its referred to as core-core inflation. It's a key measure of underlying inflationary pressure, and its at 4% for the month, unchanged from July. The other two measures have dropped...
UK consumer sentiment in August rose its fastest since April
GfK consumer sentiment indicator rose to -25 in Augustfrom a three-month low of -30 in Julybiggest rise since Aprilstill under the survey's average reading, since 1974, of -10 but a long wayGfK comment:"While the financial pulse of the nation is still weak, these...