Consumers have been cutting back in New Zealand in the face of rapid and sustained interest rate hikes. The last two meetings of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have been a bit of a relief with the Bank leaving the cash rate on hold. Retail sales -1.0% q/qexpected...
Swiss gold exports down due to lower shipments to China, India
Data from Switzerland on gold shipments in July: Swiss gold exports fell 2% in July from June exports to China fell by 19% in July to their weakest since May, 2022to India fell by 60% to their lowest level since April, 2023Info via Reuters overnight ICYMI. More here....
ICYMI – US Commerce Department eases export restrictions on 27 Chinese entities
The U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) said Monday that it is removing 27 Chinese entities from its Unverified ListThe companies were taken off the list after they successfully completed end-use checks that allowed the commerce...
Big money EUR/USD triggers for shorts at 1.0810 says UBS
A UBS note nominates a breach of 1.0810 in EUR/USD as a trigger for Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) to shift into short positions. say its a key level of clustered CTA triggers, and three are more if the euro falls below thereUBS say that CTAs are already short kiwi...
Trump plans to ramp up taxes on imports, plus a ‘matching tax’, if elected
The US Presidential election is not until November next year, but jockeying for position is starting. Trump is the frontrunner, easily, he is way out ahead, amongst Republican hopefuls, despite his imminent arrest:Trump on Fox TV promised huge new taxes:reaffirmed his...
BoA see scope for USD resilience to continue, & Fed’s focus to shift from higher to longer
Bank of America analysts like the US dollar, saying they "see scope for the USD's resilience to continue."BoA make some useful points in the note, spanning the dollar and the Federal Reserve:Signs of growth divergence continue to favour the US. pulling up nominal and...
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Euro slumps even as Treasury yields cool
> Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Euro slumps even as Treasury yields cool Session wrap Forex news for North American trading on Aug 22, 2023 <!--> Adam Button Tuesday, 22/08/2023 | 21:00 GMT-0 22/08/2023 | 21:00 GMT-0 --> <!--> Markets:Gold up $3...
TD analysis: Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole – A shift in the Fed’s policy emphasis?
TD Securities anticipates Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming address at Jackson Hole, centered on the theme 'Structural Shifts in the Global Economy', to be of significance for the broader economic community and the markets.Key Expectations:Shift in Policy...
Private oil survey data shows a smaller than expected draw for the headline crude number
The inventory data from the private survey is out now, official data follows Wednesday morning (US time).Via Twitter (or whatever its called now, Stockholm Syndrome or something?)Numbers in the week are in m of bbls--Expectations I had seen centred on:Headline crude...
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist says is mindful of the fall in the NZ dollar
Comments crossing the news wires from the Chief Economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:is mindful of the fall in NZDsays would lower the OCR sooner than we have signalled if there was a more significant slowdown in China than the RBNZ expectsRBNZMoneyMaker FX EA...
US Commerce Sec Raimondo met with China’s Ambassador Xie Feng – ‘productive discussion’
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo met with China's Ambassador Xie Feng.US 'readout': Raimondo and Xie shared a productive discussion ahead of Raimondo’s upcoming trip to Beijing and ShanghaiRaimondo raised issues of importance to the United States and American...
Economic calendar in Asia for Wednesday, 23 August 2023 – flash PMIs kick off
Yikes, those expectations for the PMIs are not a pretty picture, for Australia or Japan. Japan services doesn't have an expectations survey (that I have seen) but I suspect it'll hold up in expansion, so that's a little more encouraging. This snapshot from the...
Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 23 August 2023
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
NASDAQ index squeezes out a modest gain. Dow industrial average and S&P index close lower
The major US indices are closing mixed ahead of Nvidia earnings after the close tomorrow and that Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday.The Dow industrial average and S&P index both closed lower today giving up earlier gains. The NASDAQ index maintained a modest...
Is China a risk to the Treasury market? Maybe not
Can trouble in China's economy cause a sustained selloff in Treasuries? The latest leg down in bonds has certainly coincided with a worsening outlook in China and intervention in the yuan, so I think there is a connection.Others -- including fixed income analysts at...
EURJPY rotates back down toward swing area support
The EURJPY moved above a swing area and ceiling area between 159.19 and 159.32 toward the end of yesterday and in the Asian-Pacific session today tried to stay above that area as well. However, momentum could not be sustained passed 159.484, and buyers eventually...
Oil slips to the lows of the day into settlement. Eyes on inventories.
Eyes are on oil inventories today as chatter spreads about falling global stockpiles.October WTI crude oil settled down 49-cents to $79.63 after trading as high as $80.37. Risk trades are broadly falling as Nasdaq gains fade ahead of Nvidia earnings tomorrow.As for...
Goldman Sachs: The dual forces driving the dollar’s rise
Goldman Sachs identifies two dominant narratives shaping the current market dynamics: US Resilience and China Challenges. In the realm of foreign exchange, both these themes culminate in an amplified strength for the USD.1. US Resilience:Positive Economic Momentum:...
US equities drift to session lows. Nasdaq gives up gains
The strong open in US equities has slowly faded and now the S&P 500 is down 12 points to 4387 while the Nasdaq has pared its gain to +0.05%.Eyes are on Nvidia ahead of tomorrow's earnings report. Shares hit a record high at the open but are now lower by 2.6%.For a...
USDJPY shifts back into more neutral area
USDJPY falls back between 100 and 200 hour MAsThe USDJPY high today in the Asian-Pacific session stalled against the high from yesterday and set a ceiling area between 146.299 and 146.40.Sellers took the price down to - and through - the 100-hour moving average, on...