Gold has fallen in each of the last four days this week and looks set for a fourth straight weekly decline as well. It's not been pretty for gold prices since the middle of last month, upon testing resistance around $1,983. Since then, we've seen price fall back below...
EURUSD Technical Analysis – The pair remains in a “sell on rallies” mode
The Fed is waiting for the totality of the data to be released before deciding what to do at their September meeting. As of now, the data supports the soft-landing narrative as the disinflation in the core measures continues but the strength in the labour market and...
European equities lower at the open today
Eurostoxx -0.4%Germany DAX -0.5%France CAC 40 -0.5%UK FTSE -0.5%Spain IBEX -0.2%The only bright spot is that US futures are keeping flattish and little changed as we get things underway here in Europe. That said, we have seen the heavy selling only hit later on in the...
FX option expiries for 18 August 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being ones for EUR/USD at 1.0850 and 1.0900. Those are likely to keep price action more contained on the session, before rolling off later today. This comes as the downside momentum...
USDCAD Technical Analysis – The breakout of the trendline is a bullish sign
The Fed is waiting for the totality of the data to be released before deciding what to do at their September meeting. As of now, the data supports the soft-landing narrative as the disinflation in the core measures continues but the strength in the labour market and...
UK July retail sales -1.2% vs -0.5% m/m expected
Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.6%Retail sales -3.2% vs -2.1% y/y expectedPrior -1.0%; revised to -1.6%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -1.4% vs -0.7% m/m expectedPrior +0.8%; revised to +0.7%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -3.4% vs -2.2% y/y expectedPrior -0.9%; revised to...
USD/JPY eyes back-to-back down days as upside momentum stalls
USD/JPY daily chartIt has been a good run for the pair since the beginning of last week but it seems like the upside momentum is running out of steam now. As Treasury yields hit a bit of a wall, we are also seeing USD/JPY drop off a little today. The pair is down 0.3%...
Bond bulls make a bit of a stand for now
10-year yields in the US clipped the 4.30% mark yesterday but are pushing back lower by nearly 6 bps to 4.249% currently. The former is a key line in the sand for the bond market at the moment and so far, the bulls are making a bit of a stand. But against the...
RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk says slowdown in China, easing global growth a risk
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Assistant Governor Karen Silk spoke with Reuters in an interview. Said that there were "definitely reasons to be concerned" about the weakness in China's economyconsumer spending downhigh debt in the property sectorthe levers China had used...
Forecast for two 15bp rate cuts to come from the People’s Bank of China on Monday
I posted earlier on the Loan Prime Rate setting coming up from the People's Bank of China on Monday:This via ING, expecting 15 cuts to both the 1- and 5-year LPR:The People's Bank of China (PBoC) surprised the market on Tuesday with an unexpected cut to its one-year...
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD loses some ground
The dribble lower for US yields was a factor weighing on the US dollar in Asia trade today. Major FX rose against the dollar pretty much across the board. Even the yen added to its Thursday gains, albeit not by too much. China was one again a focus. The People’s Bank...
People’s Bank of China is expected to cut loan rates next week
Earlier this week we had rate cuts from the People's Bank of China:Coming up on Monday August 21 we get the Loan Prime Rate setting from the People's Bank of China, this'll happen around 0115 GMT, which is 9.15 pm Eastern Time Sunday US time. The MLF rate is a...
ECB’s Lane will be speaking Friday, 18 August 2023 on Inflation – live link
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
US yield dribbling lower helping the USD to do the same
The US dollar is falling away across the FX board with yields pulling back a little lower. EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD are all up against the big dollar. Even the hapless yen is gaining some ground. As for the yuan, a little lift for it also, which the PBOC will welcome....
TD like NZD/CAD a lot lower, could fall to 0.7670
TD's key takeaways on NZD/CAD: 1. Divergence in Terms of Trade: TD highlights a significant divergence in the terms of trade between New Zealand and Canada. Terms of trade measure the value of a country's exports relative to the value of its imports. A rising terms of...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2006 (vs. estimate at 7.3065)
Another huge discrepancy between the modelled expectation and the PBOC decision. Yesterday was a 10 big figure deviation, today also. The Bank is signalling it'd like to slow the pace of the yuan's fall. State banks have been intervening to sell USD/CNY also:People's...
UBS expect US dollar upside to be limited from here – their most preferred is the euro
Snippet from UBS on the Federal Reserve and US dollar outlook. On the minutes of the FOMC released this week:The minutes didn’t actually deviate much from the script. While markets may not have been positioned for a hawkish tilt to the commentary, we see few actual...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.3065 – Reuters estimate
In Chinese media today a report says the People's Bank of China should use its countercyclical measure to support the yuan. Yesterday the People's Bank of China signalled very clearly it'd like the yuan to stop plunging so rapidly, with a reference rate more than 10...
Citigroup forecasts Brent oil as low as $68, say to short oil after summer is over
Info comes via an Oil Price article. In summary:After summer the current oil price rally will be over. A hurricane—and only a hurricane—is the one thing that could change the fatter supply outlook for the post-summer months. Citigroup’s commodity research team warned...
Chatter about that US regulator is set to approve Ether-Futures ETFs
Bloomberg (gated) on a cryptocurrency tailwind if true. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is poised to allow the first exchange-traded funds based on Ether futures, a major win for several firms that long have sought to offer the productsThe regulator...