While 25,000 jobs were expected to be added in April, 4,300 were lost! Job growth was strong in earlier months of this year. The unemployment rate jumped to 3.7% from March's 3.5%. This is still historically low but an increase in joblessness is not welcome. The rapid...
Australia Jobs -4.3K (vs. +25K expected) & Unemployment rate 3.7% (vs. 3.5% expected)
Australian jobs report with big misses.AUD marked lower on the data.The rise in unemployment and the fall in jobs on the month will argue in favour of an RBA 'hold' at its June meeting (on the 6th)part-time employment increased by 22.8KMore:employment to population...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.9967 (vs. estimate at 6.9985)
People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading...
Australian May 2023 Consumer Inflation Expectation: 5.2% (prior 4.6%)
Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations for May 2023.expected inflation rate 5.2% from 4.6% in April's surveySays MI:May’s data show a spike in inflation expectations, likely to be associated with last week’s federal budget. Even with the...
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ICYMI: Barclays cut its forecast for China 2023 GDP growth to 5.3% (from 5.6%)
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
ICYMI – Russia’s Putin said Russian oil output cuts were to support higher prices
Putin was speaking at a televised meeting of his government on Wednesday. The recent background to his comments is that Russia said on April 2 it would extend an oil production cut of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) - about 5% of its crude output - until the end of the...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9985 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
Japan April exports +2.6% y/y (expected 3.0%) & Imports -2.3% y/y (exp -0.3%)
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
JP Morgan eye biggest downside risk if we enter Memorial Day weekend without US debt deal
Via JP Morgan trader remarks, casting an eye out past this week.“While McCarthy said a deal is possible by end of this week, the timeline may be by the end of next week ahead of the Memorial Day,”(JPM referring to comments yesterday on 'possible this week')“With that...
Australian jobs data due Thursday, 18 May 2023 – preview
Coming up at 11.30 am local time in Sydney 0130 GMT 2130 US Eastern time Yesterday's subdued wages figures:The background to today's numbers is that employment growth in February and March was very strong. 117k jobs addedthe jobless rate dropped to 3.5%Labour demand...
Gold Prices Fall Amidst US Debt Ceiling Deal Bets, Technical Setup Shaky
Gold, XAU/USD, US Debt Ceiling, Technical Analysis - Briefing:Gold prices fell on Wednesday, extending recent losing streakUS debt ceiling breakthrough bets pushed up Treasury yieldsXAU/USD faces support breakout and a bearish IGCS signal Recommended by Daniel...
New Zealand Q1 2023 Output PPI 0.3% q/q (expected 1.3%) Input 0.2% q/q ( expected 1.5%)
The New Zealand PPI (Producer Price Index) includes both inputs (such as raw materials, energy, and labor) and outputs (such as goods and services produced).Both measures have come in lower than expected and lower than the previous quarter. Pointing to reduced price...
ICYMI – JP Morgan says US recession is virtually certain, Fed may cut rates by Q3 2023
JP Morgan Asset Management says an incoming US recession is a virtual certainty. The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by the third quarter as growth loses momentum.Bloomberg (gated) reported on the note from JPM:“The market is right to be penciling in cuts”...
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BoA says it expects the S&P 500 has not yet hit a bottom
A snippet from Bank of America's Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy. “Our bull market signposts suggest the S&P 500 may not break out just yet”Only half of the 'signposts' BoA look for, such as Fed rate cuts and a steepening yield...
PIMCO said a US debt ceiling deal is ‘right around the corner’
A note from PIMCO public policy analysts says this on the debt deilinb stad off:“We think a deal – or a framework of a deal – is right around the corner – and likely in days, not weeks. However, like all negotiations, there is a chance that we could see them die...
Chinese media report domestic air travel back to pre-pandemic levels, international not
Caixin (gated) with the report on April air travel data from China's Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC)China’s aviation industry is picking up the pace of recovery as domestic air travel bounced back to pre-pandemic levels in April. The recovery for...
ICYMI – Nomura has lopped its 2023 China GDP forecast to 5.5% from 5.9% – “losing steam”
Data from China is less encouraging that expected. Data from earlier in the week:And responses:Now analysts at Nomura have cut their forecast for China's 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 5.5% from 5.9% previously.lowered its forecast for Q2 GDP growth to...
Economic calendar in Asia – Australian jobs report
Japan data today will be a first look at Q2 trade data. Q1 trade was disappointing but other data was better as yesterday's GDP numbers showed:The data from Australia today follows yesterday's subdued wages figures:The Reserve Bank of Australia have been seeking to...