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Everyone agrees that China is struggling, though there a major disagreements on how bad it is or how bad it will get. Today, the PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks in yet-another move to shore up the economy. The real estate sector is struggling...
By this point the story is well-known -- OPEC+ is putting a squeeze on the market and it's under-supplied somewhere in the 1-3 million barrel per day range. That should narrow in October as China backs off a filling inventories but unless OPEC breaks, global...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
US yields have turned back around with the 10 year now up 3.8 basis points at 4.286%, the 2 year yield is modestly higher at 5.009%. EURUSD retests the low for the day.That has the US dollar moving higher, and the EURUSD lower and back retesting its low for the day...
A divergence in the global bond market is weighing on the euro and has tipped it below the post-ECB low. EUR/USD is down 75 pips to 1.0653.The bond market tells the story with US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to a session high of 4.28% while bund yields are down 4 bps and...
The AUDUSD has been trading up and down in trading today, but technically, the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September 1 high at 0.64198 and 100 hour moving average near the same level, held support. Conversely, on the top side, the rally stalled against...
Prior was +0.0%Retail inventories ex-autos 0.0% vs +0.1% priorBig parts of the US are running light on inventory because people were expecting a recession by now. The question is: Do they continue to run lean on expectations the recession will eventually come, or do...
Futures prices are implying a stronger opening for the major US stock indices. Today stronger data out of the US is not hurting the stocks (so far). Yields are lower with the 2 year now down -2.6 basis points 10 year is down -1.5 basis points and 30-year is near...
As traders react to the stronger US data and the ECB rate decision to increase rates by 25 basis points, what are the technical levels in play given the early North American price action. EURUSD. The EURUSD traded to a new low for the month and lowest level since June...
Some governors would have preferred to pause and wait on more dataA 'solid majority' agreed with the decisionThree quarters of the rise in the 2024 rise in inflation is due to carry-over from 2023We didn't discuss how long we will leave rates at these levels, we will...
Higher inflation forecasts mainly reflect higher energyRates will remain at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessaryRates were hiked to 'reinforce commitment to our target'The economy is likely to remain subdued in the coming monthsThe services sector,...
The euro is down despite a somewhat-surprising rate hike because the statement said:ECB considers that key rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the...
US PPI y/yPrior was +0.8% y/y PPI final demand m/m +0.7% vs +0.4% y/y expectedPrior was +0.3% m/m (revised to 0.0%)Ex food and energy:+2.2% y/y vs +2.2% expected (prior +2.4%)+0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected (prior +0.3%)Goods ex food and energy +0.1% vs 0.0% m/m...
Initial jobless claims and continuing claimsPrior week 216K revised to 217Kinitial jobless claims 220K vs 225K estimate4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 224.5K vs 229.5k priorcontinuing claims 1.688M versus 1.695M. Prior week of continuing claims 1.684M...
> Canada wholesale trade for July 0.2% versus 1.4% estimate Canada wholesale trade data for July 2023 <!--> --> <!--> Canada wholesale tradePrior month -2.8% revised to -2.1%Wholesale sales (excluding certain products) rose by 0.2% versus +1.4%...
Prior was +0.7% (revised to +0.5%)Details:Retail sales m/m +0.6% versus +0.2% expectedEx-autos +0.6% versus +0.4% expected. Prior ex autos +1.0%Control group +0.1% versus -0.1% expectedPrior control group +1.0% (revised to +0.7%)Retail sales ex gas and autos +0.2%....
EUR/USD has fallen from 1.0730 to 1.0695 in the aftermath of the ECB decision, even though the central bank delivered a 25 bps rate hike today. The key takeaway is that they hinted that this should be the final rate hike of the cycle and lower economic projections and...
EURUSD back below its 100/200 hour moving averagesThe EURUSD initially moved higher but fell short of its high for the day after the central bank raise rates by 25 basis points. The high price reached 1.07469, but reversed quickly falling to a new low for the day at...
Prior decisionMain refinancing rate 4.50% vs 4.25% expectedPrior 4.25%Deposit facility rate 4.00% vs 3.75% expectedPrior 3.75%Marginal lending facility 4.75%Prior 4.50%Inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too longPast rate hikes...
The strongest to the weakest of the major currenciesAs the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. The USD is mostly lower. The EURUSD is mixed ahead of their interest rate decision at 8:15 AM ET. ECBs Lagarde will conduct...