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The USDCHF moved up to test it 200-hour moving average in trading today near the 0.8997 level and found willing sellers. Also near the area is a 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May 31 high. That level comes in at 0.8995. The natural resistance at 0.9000...
The Fed Chair Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on monetary policy at the top of the hour. The prepared text which he will read at the start of the testimony, can be found in its entirety HERE.You can watch the testimony by clicking...
The major US stock indices are trading lower for the 2nd consecutive day. The Dow Industrial Average is leading the declines with a decline of near 0.45%. Fed chair will begin his testimony at 10 AM ET. The text of his prepared remarks have already been released. You...
The GBPUSD moved lower despite stronger CPI data in the UK today. That move to the downside took the price near the 200 hour moving average at 1.26844. The price has bounced off of that level, keeping the buyers in play in the pair (watch video above). On the top...
The USDJPY moved lower in trading yesterday and in the process tested its 100-hour moving average, finding support buyers there. In the Asian session today, the 100-hour moving average was again tested, and once again found buyers giving the go-ahead to push the price...
The EURUSD is stuck in a narrow 28 PIP trading range for the day so far as the markets prepare for Fed chair Powell's testimony on Capitol Hill. The chair has pre-released his prepared text. There were no major surprises, but the markets will be focused on his tone...
The market didn't like today's high UK core inflation reading and is signaling that the BOE will have to send the economy into a recession. Current market pricing shows a 57% chance of 25 bps tomorrow and 43% chance of 50 bps. Pricing also shows a 75% probability the...
Fed Chair PowellNearly all FOMC participants expect it will be appropriate to raise rates somewhat further by year endSeeing some effects of tightening but it will take time to see full effectsLabor market remains very tight but nominal wage growth showing signs of...
Canada new housing price indexPrior month -0.1%The national index for new home prices in Canada increased by 0.1% month over month in May, marking the first increase since August 2022.Prices were up in 6 out of the 27 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) surveyed, down in...
Prior was -1.4%April advanced estimate was -0.2%Ex autos +1.3% versus +0.4% expectedPrior ex autos came in at -0.3%May advanced retail sales +0.5%Sales up 1.4% y/y, inflation adjusted but down 0.4% excluding autosThis is a strong report and the advanced May number...
After a horrible CPI inflation figure in the UK the bar is set pretty high for the Bank of England to accelerate the pace of rate hikes to 50 basis points this week. The market gives it a 50% chance. At the same time it believes that by August 23 rates will rise to...
The strongest to weakest of the major currenciesThe CAD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The GBP is also weaker despite higher CPI data. PPI in the UK was lower. The GBP initially moved higher on the news but then...
> Citi revises higher BOE terminal rate expectation to 5.25% Adds that the risks are still skewed towards a more hawkish direction <!--> Justin Low Wednesday, 21/06/2023 | 11:58 GMT-0 21/06/2023 | 11:58 GMT-0 --> <!--> In case you missed it:...
Headlines:Markets:CAD leads, AUD lags on the dayEuropean equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%US 10-year yields up 2.9 bps to 3,753%Gold down 0.1% to $1,934.10WTI crude flat at $71.21Bitcoin up 2.8% to $28,966The BOE would probably wish that their policy...
> US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 16 June +0.5% vs +7.2% prior Latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending 16 June 2023 <!--> Justin Low Wednesday, 21/06/2023 | 11:00 GMT-0 21/06/2023 | 11:00 GMT-0 --> <!--> Prior...
Market pictureThe market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies rose 5.7% in the last 24 hours to 1,134 trillion. Bitcoin was the engine of growth, but buyers quickly expanded to some altcoins. Bitcoin is up 7.6%, Ethereum is up 4.7%, and the top altcoins are up from a...
Slight delay in the release by the source. The order book balance did rose to a six-month high to from -17 in May to -15 in June but export order balance declined once again to -29, its weakest since February 2021. CBI notes that UK manufacturing activity is likely to...
GBP/USD hourly chartThe initial reaction to the hot inflation data earlier was a higher pound, with GBP/USD rising to a high of 1.2802 but the move was a brief one as noted here. As mentioned then and earlier in the session, the data isn't going to change much for the...
For me, we would need to have core inflation under control to stop tighteningWe need more data ahead of September decisionThis is consistent with the current thinking by the ECB, in that they are leaving the door open for September if need be. However, they are not...
That is a revision lower to their previous forecast that the German economy will contract by 0.1% in 2023. As for 2024, they also see softer growth with a forecast of 1.5% as compared to 1.7% previously. On the inflation front, Ifo notes that German inflation is...