People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading...
Iran is shipping the most crude in almost five years
A catch-up with this Bloomberg (gated) piece on Iranian oil exports:Exports have surged to the highest level since US sanctions were re-imposed in 2018vast majority is flowing to ChinaBloomberg cite various analysts:Crude oil shipments have doubled since last autumn...
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PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1186 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
Goldman Sachs have taken a knife to their China GDP forecasts: 5.4% for 2023 (6.0% prior)
I posted a couple of these earlier"Goldman Sachs have jumped on board: China GDP growth target for 2023 cut to 5.4%, from 6.0%2024 now targeted at 4.5%, from 4.6% previouslyGoldman Sachs argue that the stimulus seen is insufficient to fire up a powerful enough impulse...
Reminder – it’s a US holiday today – Cash stock markets, bonds closed. Globex open Sunday.
Cash stock markets, bonds and FX are closed on Monday in the US (there may be skeleton staffing at some bank desks).CME futures hours are, in summary (there are exceptions):Globex is open for a few hours on Sunday evening 18 June.Globex is then closed for Monday with...
Japan’s yen intervention guy welcomes US dropping it from monitoring list
Japan's Finance Ministry's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Kanda. He is the guy who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary. Often referred to as Japan's 'top currency diplomat'. Welcomes US dropping Japan from its monitoring...
BoA see S&P500 top before late July central banks, downside risk bigger before Labor Day
Bank of America analysts restate their bearish view of US equities again. Say that bears like them had been wrong in H1 due to the US economy avoiding a recession and a credit crunch, and an “unanticipated event” - the the AI-powered tech rally.In a note laced with...
UK data – Rightmove House Prices for June 0.0% m/m (prior + 1.8%)
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
UBS revised down its China 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.2%, from 5.7% previously
UBS citing the weaker data that came through for May."Q2 growth momentum is tracking much weaker than we expected earlier"UBS are seeing early data for June as weak also, saying its not obvious that there is any improvement. Policy moves out of China are expected, the...
New Zealand May Services PMI 53.3 (prior 50.1)
New Zealand Performance Services IndexRemarks from the report from:BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope“The lift in expansion for May also saw a pick up in the proportion of positive comments, which rose from 39.8% in April to 50.6% for the current month. Overall,...
Goldman Sachs says US inflation will not fall as quickly as markets are currently pricing
A note from the investment bank issued on Friday. In it GS says:"Although we expect further declines in inflation going forward, markets appear considerably more optimistic than we are about the pace of cooling," says investors are not taking note of the potential for...
China’s State Council considering various macroeconomic policies to boost demand
China’s State Council met on Friday. Premier Li Qiang chaired the meeting. In a statement after, said:the Council considered a batch of macroeconomic policies designed to expand “effective demand”, strengthen the real economy and defuse risks in key areas:"it is...
ICYMI – Nomura slashes its forecast for China’s 2023 GDP growth to 5.1% from 5.5%
Nomura note issued Friday, says the firm has cut its forecast for China's 2023 GDP growth to 5.1% from 5.5%:in view of the worsening downward spiral of major activity data and Beijing's tepid response to date, we lower our GDP growth and inflation forecastsexpect...
Head of Russian oil giant Rosneft says losing out on export share to other OPEC+ countries
Igor Sechin, heads up Russian energy major Rosneft. He spoke over the weekend at an economic forum.Said that Russia only supplies half of its production to the world market, compared to several OPEC+ nations who were exporting up to 90% of their output:"That puts our...
ICYMI – Russia close to striking long-term deals to sell substantial supplies of oil
The Wall Street Journal with the piece on Friday re Russia’s state energy giant Rosneft nearing securing agreements to long-term deals to sell substantial supplies of oil. locking in export revenue. The Journal says that according to those acquainted with the sale,...
ICYMI – Fed’s Goolsbee say FOMC is pausing for now to go scope out economic developments
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke in an interview late on Friday in an interview on US National Public Radio. Goolsbee tends towards the less hawkish of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) spectrum. His comments were not overtly...
Magnitude 6.1 earthquake hits Gulf of California region
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Economic calendar in Asia on Monday, 19 June 2023, a light one
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Trade ideas thread – Monday, 19 June 2023
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...