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US 10 year yieldThe bond rout on Friday and today has been a tough one to explain. Oil prices have risen but nothing has materially changed in the fundamental or Fed view.Earlier, I brought you talk that corporate bond issuance was something people in the bond market...
The Canadian dollar is undoubtedly a commodity currency and its largest export by far is crude oil. So why is oil at a 10-month high and the Canadian dollar at a 5-month low?Here are some of the things dragging down the loonie:Worries about global growth --...
USDCAD dailyMUFG suggests that the Bank of Canada (BoC) may not be in a hurry to increase rates, especially after the recent disappointing Q2 GDP report. However, they also note that the Canadian dollar (CAD) is trading at undervalued levels, suggesting that much of...
United Airlines has issued a nationwide ground stop for all flights due to a computer issue, according to the FAA.You have to wonder if there's some incompetence here in the systems or if hackers are exploiting something for ransom. In either case, these computer...
Goldman Sachs asserts that despite a macroeconomic backdrop that generally supports a weaker dollar—namely, lower rate volatility, slowing yet solid U.S. growth, and positive risk sentiment—the risks look skewed towards a stronger dollar than most market participants...
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AUDUSD dailyThis is a tough one.AUD/USD broke support earlier today and touched the lowest since November 2022. The decline today is 77 pips and comes after the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged. That was widely expected (I thought) but not as much I...
WTI crude oil has extended higher by $2.36 to $87.88 while brent has edged above $91 for the first time since November 2022.WTI dailyI suspect there was some 'sell the fact' style profit taking in crude after the Saudi and Russian announcements but now that's being...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
USDMXN dailyMorgan Stanley is warning of declines in emerging markets."We expect more CNH (yuan) weakness, and China macro risks add to existing pressure from weak global growth and EM central bank easing cycles.. We maintain a neutral stance on EM rates and...
The labour market has also come more into balancefrom what I see so far, that we might have to go a bit higher, that we might have to raise the policy rate a bit more. there is still a lot of time before our next decision in September and we will get a lot of data and...
The oil market is in focus due to OPEC+ at the moment but it could be on storms later this week.The NHC forecasts a near 100% chance of one system forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours with the second showing a 70% chance over the coming seven days.The...
Prior was 115.45 (revised to 114.71)“The ETI ticked down in August and has been on an overall declining trend since March 2022," said Selcuk Eren, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “The index is still elevated, so job gains may continue over the coming months,...
Prior was +2.3% (unrevised)First decline after four consecutive increasesFactory order ex transport +0.8% vs +0.3% priorRevisions to durable goods - a component of factory orders showed:Durable goods orders -5.2% vs -5.2% preliminary. Durable goods ex defense -5.5%...
The oil market is going to be in a significant deficit through year end, pulling and global inventories and pushing up prices.Saudi Arabia announced today that it would extend a voluntary 1 million barrels per day output cut through December and Russia quickly...
Russia joins Saudi Arabia in cutting through year end, though the 'reviewed monthly' is a big caveat.Still, Russia and Saudi Arabia are united in cutting production even with oil prices in the $85-$90 range. I imagine they won't be 'reviewing' the decision at anything...
Oil production cuts to be kept in place through year endDecision will be reviewed monthlyAdditional voluntary cut comes to reinforce the precautionary efforts made by OPEC+ countries with the aim of suporting the stability and balance of oil marketsExpect Russia to...
The data last week clearly showed the jobs market is starting to soften Unemployment is about where it was a year ago so change isn't that bigRecessions are often caused by shocks that come out of nowhere but the data so far is pretty good (for a soft landing)I want...
> Central Banks > ECB's Schnabel: Climate change is an existential threat with large downside tail risks. Central Banks Schnabel speaks on "The incorporation of environmental considerations in the supervision of prudential risks” <!--> --> Adam Button...