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Employment costs dip to 1%Prior quarter 1.2%Employment costs 1.0% versus 1.1% expectedBenefits 0.9% vs 1.2% last quarterWages +1.0% versus 1.2% last monthLooking at the chart, the employment costs remain in the upper end of the recent history going back to 2019, but...
Prior was +4.6%PCE core 0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expectedPrior MoM +0.3%Headline inflation PCE +3.0% y/y vs +3.0% expected (Prior +3.8%)Deflator +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected (prior was +0.1%)Consumer spending and income for June:Personal income +0.3% vs +0.5% expected. Prior...
Prior month 0.0% revise to +0.1%May GDP 0.3% versus 0.3% expectedGoods producing industries -0.3%Service producing industries +0.5%12 of 20 industrial sectors posted increasesFor the month of June ahead the projection shows:Advanced GDP estimate for June -0.2%May GDP...
The Bank of Japan made things interesting today with some haphazard communication and a tweak to yield-curve control. I'll have more to write on that later but first we have a full helping of economic data to digest.At the bottom of the hour:US PCEUS Q2 employment...
The strongest to weakest of the major currenciesThe GBP is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the North American traders enter for the dayToday will be highlighted in the North American session by the PCE data in the US. Core PCE year on year is expected to...
Prior +6.4%HICP +6.5% vs +6.6% y/y expectedPrior +6.8%Slight delay in the release by the source. Headline annual inflation comes in right on estimates and is slightly lower than in June, as preempted by the state readings from earlier. The monthly figure shows an...
Headlines:Markets:GBP leads, AUD lags on the dayEuropean equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.5%US 10-year yields down 4.5 bps to 3.966%Gold up 0.6% to $1,956.54WTI crude down 0.2% to $79.90Bitcoin up 0.2% to $29,196It was a busy session in markets as traders and...
The Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps as expected and kept the policy statement unchanged. The market was looking for clues and hints on the next policy path, but it didn’t get anything. In fact, Fed Chair Powell just reaffirmed their data dependency. Yesterday...
Need to be pragmatic and keep an open mindPerseverance is now key given the time needed for full transmission of policyFrench inflation is falling even without a recessionOur growing confidence in inflation moving towards the 2% target is based on good transmission of...
The Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps as expected leaving the policy statement unchanged. The market was eager to get some clues on the next policy moves but was disappointed as Fed Chair Powell just reaffirmed their data dependency and kept all the options on the...
On the week itself, the pair is down roughly a little over 1% with the momentum from yesterday's drop carrying over to today. The souring in the risk mood yesterday was a main drag for the aussie as well but the extension of the fall today looks to be more technical...
We should take a firm step further on our way to the topEven if we do take a break in September, it would be premature to automatically consider it the end of the cycleThere is still risk of inflation coming in higher than expectedWe are looking for the right place to...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Economic confidence 94.5 vs 95.0 expectedPrior 95.3Industrial confidence -9.4 vs -7.5 expectedPrior -7.2; revised to -7.3Services confidence 5.7 vs 5.4 expectedPrior 5.7; revised to 5.9Euro area economic confidence fell slightly in July and that reflects the added...
Understand today's decision is aimed at making YCC more flexibleAlso to make monetary easing more sustainableExpects BOJ to conduct monetary policy appropriatelyIt is pretty much a rehash of what we heard from Ueda earlier. Just keep in mind that when the Japanese...
China stocks rallied and hit a 6-week high, as investor confidence in official stimulus measures strengthened. Property, financial and consumer related stocks in particular benefited, after signals of further support. The BoJ signalled a widening of the band for the...
Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Stournaras said that a September rate hike is "unlikely" but if it were to be the case, it would be the last for this year - at least in his books.It seems to be the case that the communication now is not going to be one where policymakers...
It is one of those days for the Japanese yen and it all started with a leaked report overnight that the BOJ could perform a tweak to its yield curve control settings. That culminated with a slight adjustment announced today, but not before some confusion as the the...
The Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps as expected leaving the policy statement unchanged. Tha market was more focused on hints and clues on the next Fed moves but it got disappointed as Fed Chair Powell has just reaffirmed their data dependency and kept all options...
Hesse CPI +6.1% y/yPrior +6.1%Brandenburg CPI +% y/yPrior +6.7%The state readings so far are reflecting just a marginal decline in headline annual inflation from June to July. This does fit with estimates for the national reading later, which is expected to fall from...