BlackRock Investment Institute have a very downbeat outlook on global stock markets. On the US:We are underweight. Financial cracks are emerging from Fed rate hikes. We don’t think earnings expectations reflect the recession we see ahead.On Europe:We are underweight....
Japan Jibun Manufacturing PMI for May (final): 50.6 (prior 49.5)
Jibun / S&P Global final manufacturing PMI from Japan for May 2023 comes in at 50.6, much improved from April:preliminary was 50.8, prior 49.550.6 is the first move into expansion in 7 monthsGood results from Japan. From the report:The latest au Jibun Bank PMI...
Oil price fall – ANZ does not expect OPEC will intervene with output cuts at June meeting
Earlier on oil: ANZ say that oil market's sentiment was hit by the PMI from China yesterday indicating the country's weak economic rebound. Concerns that the post-COVID bounce has petered out. Also overnight data showing US employment vacancies unexpectedly increased....
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0964 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
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Japan data – Q1 Business capex +11% y/y (+5.5% expected)
Japan's Ministry of Finance with the data for the January to March quarter:Corporate capital expenditure rose 2.3% q/q and 11% y/y, the Q4 2022 y/y up 7.7%up 5.5% was expected for the y/ySales +5% y/yexpected +2.3%, prior +6.1%Recurring profits +4.3% y/y expected...
UK – advertised starting salaries reached the highest level in two years
On Wednesday Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann warned of recalcitrant inflation :Via job search website Adzuna's survey comes the news that wage growth may proper up inflation further:Starting salaries advertised in Britain reached the highest...
ICYMI – Italy will set up a EUR1bn sovereign fund
Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni has confirmed the country will set up a €1 billion sovereign fund to channel funding to companies it deems strategic and to bolster domestic production and secure key supply chainsfund will “stimulate the growth and consolidation of...
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Australia final May manufacturing PMI 48.4 (prior 48.0)
Judo Bank / S&P Global Australia final manufacturing PMI for May 2023 improves to 48.4 but remains in contraction From the report:Even though the May PMI is up slightly from April, the underlying trend is consistent with a gradual slowdown in activity across the...
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Drop on Global Growth Woes and Still-Tight US Labor Market?
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, JOLTS Job Openings, July Fed Hike – Asia-Pacific Briefing:S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 sink for a second day as sentiment deterioratesGlobal growth woes, signs of a still-tight US labor market were in focusA Rising Wedge is taking shape in the...
Re oil – Warren Buffett bought more Occidental shares
Berkshire Hathaway bought more shares of Occidental Petroleum over the last three trading daysadding to it's existing stakebought circa 4.7 mn shares on Thursday and Friday last week and on Tuesday this week. now holds a 24.9% in the firm, a Houston-based oil and gas...
“Fed Whisperer” Timiraos says the FOMC is likely to hold interest rates steady in June
The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos writes:Federal Reserve officials signalled they are increasingly likely to hold interest rates steady at their June meeting before preparing to raise them again later this summer. Investors in recent days had expected the Fed...
ICYMI: BoE MPC member Mann says UK has a bigger inflation problem than the US or Eurozone
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann spoke on Wednesday. She is towards the more hawkish end of the MPC spectrum. Mann said that the UK has a greater inflation problem than the United States or the euro zone. She pointed to both large...
Barclays cuts its 2023 Brent forecast to US$87/bbl (from $92) & 2024 to US$89 (from $97)
> Barclays cuts its 2023 Brent forecast to US$87/bbl (from $92) & 2024 to US$89 (from $97) <!--> --> Eamonn Sheridan Wednesday, 31/05/2023 | 21:26 GMT-0 31/05/2023 | 21:26 GMT-0 <!--> --> Barclays says on OPEC:The major objective of OPEC+ will...
ICYMI: French Finance Minister said inflation was slowing down sharply
Noting this from French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire on Wednesday. "I maintain the forecast for economic growth of 1% though I am aware of the risks weighing on growth""Inflation is also slowing, it is slowing sharply" Le Maire was speaking with France Inter...
BlackRock CEO Fink says inflation remains sticky, expects at least two more Fed rate hikes
BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager. CEO Larry Fink says the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is not done raising rates:expects at least another 2 hikes, as many as 4!"The Fed is going to have to be more vigilant. The economy is more resilient than the...
Private oil survey data shows large headline crude build vs a draw expected
The inventory data from the private survey is out now, official data follows Wed. morning (US time).The numbers via Twitter:The headline crude result was expected to be a draw of 1.22 million barrels.Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.2 mn barrels...
US debt ceiling bill now faces an hour long debate in the House, vote to follow
Debt ceiling theatrics continue. The US House has approved a measure to bring on an hour of debate on the debt limit bill. All indications are that the bill to raise the limit will pass but the theatrics will continue for a little while at least. Once the House...
Economic calendar in Asia 01 June 2023 – another manufacturing PMI from China
Yesterday we had declining official PMIs from China:Today we get the private survey manufacturing PMI, from Caixin / S&P Global. As I've posted before:China has two primary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys - the official PMI released by the National Bureau...