On the daily chart below, we can see that GBPUSD has recently fell back within the previous major range between the 1.1839 support and 1.2444 resistance. The moving averages have been reliable in indicating the trend and they are now pointing to the downside. The...
SNB total sight deposits w.e. 26 May CHF 516.7 bn vs CHF 515.7 bn prior
Domestic sight deposits CHF 505.2 bn vs CHF 504.5 bn priorSwiss sight deposits rose slightly in the past week after having dipped in the many weeks prior, following a normalising of financial conditions after the whole Credit Suisse crisis in March to April.MoneyMaker...
Eurozone April M3 money supply +1.9% vs +2.1% y/y expected
Prior +2.5%Broad money growth continues to slow down considerably in the euro area and this might be a bit of a concern as credit conditions tighten further amid the rate hikes by the ECB. This will definitely be a spot to watch in the months ahead in assessing...
Russia’s Novak says to discuss oil market situation with oil companies on 30 May
Novak endured a bit of a fiasco last week as seen here, but the latest headline above shouldn't be anything too noteworthy. In any case, this does tee up a reminder to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on 4 June. That will be a weekend risk for oil traders, so just a bit of...
European equities in a bit of a bind at the open today
Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX flatFrance CAC 40 -0.6%UK FTSE -0.2%Spain IBEX flatThis comes with US futures holding minor gains but mostly related to tech stocks. S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% and Nasdaq futures up 0.4%, while Dow futures are flat. Looking back at...
Switzerland Q1 GDP +0.3% vs +0.1% q/q expected
Prior 0.0%GDP +0.6% vs +0.6% y/y expectedPrior +0.8%The Swiss economy grew by more than expected in Q1, supported by domestic demand and rising exports mostly. Consumer spending increased by 0.6% on the quarter and the recovery in the travel sector has played a main...
Spain May preliminary CPI +3.2% vs +3.5% y/y expected
Prior +4.1%HICP +2.9% vs +3.4% y/y expectedPrior +3.8%The headline reading and the EU-harmonised reading will be a welcome development for the ECB. And with core annual inflation also seen dropping to 6.1% - down from 6.6% previously - that should help brighten the...
Switzerland KOF leading indicator index 90.2 vs 95.3 expected
Prior 96.4; revised to 96.1The outlook for the Swiss economy dims in May amid growing concerns about the global economic outlook in general. But if inflation pressures start to abate in the European region, that could spur a turnaround in sentiment ahead of the...
Japan top currency diplomat to brief media after emergency meeting among financial bodies
Kanda will be speaking to the press after and that sort of indicates that there should be some warnings about not letting the currency freefall and that speculative moves should be deterred. If Japanese officials were to intervene, they wouldn't be saying anything and...
USD/JPY dips on emergency meeting by Japanese authorities
USD/JPY 15 mins chartThe pair just fell down from 140.85 to 140.35 before keeping around 140.50 levels now after the announcement here.It looks to be some position squaring just in case Japanese officials sound some warning about the currency falling rapidly. Japan's...
BOJ, Japan MOF and FSA to hold emergency meeting at 0830 GMT today
There's no context to the announcement but I reckon it will just be a look in to financial conditions and perhaps the Japanese currency itself, as it has weakened past 140 against the dollar and looks set to fall further. In any case, this is a bit of a heads up and...
Dollar gets to work in the new week
The dollar is picking up from where it left off last week as gains are coming through once again. EUR/USD is down 0.2% to fresh ten-week lows at 1.0685 while USD/JPY is touching 140.90 as buyers look to extend the break above the 140.00 mark and are eyeing 142.00...
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Gold on the brink as dollar continues to run hot
The dollar continues to sit in a commanding position in trading this week and that is weighing further on gold today. The yellow metal is down 0.4% to $1,935 levels now as sellers are contesting key technical support at the moment:Gold (XAU/USD) daily chartThe 100-day...
Trade ideas thread – European session 30 May 2023
The dollar remains in a commanding spot and looks poised to stretch gains in the new week. USD/JPY continues to hold above 140.00 while EUR/USD is starting to contest levels below 1.0700 with room to roam towards 1.0500. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is threatening the 0.6500...
FX option expiries for 30 May 10am New York cut
There is just perhaps one to take note of for today, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD near the 1.0700 mark, so that could see price action be more sticky in the session ahead. That said, the expiries are not really at a significant level and the size is...
A couple of releases to move things along in European trading today
With the US debt ceiling deal being done, the focus in markets now turns back towards the balance between inflation, central banks and the economic outlook. The overall risk mood is keeping steadier with US futures a little higher while Treasury yields are keeping...
Dollar stays in control as the week finally gets underway
And so, the new week is pretty much only getting started today. The dollar continues to sit in a good spot as markets continue to weigh up higher odds of another rate hike by the Fed. Looking at Fed funds futures, there is now a roughly 61% probability of a 25 bps...
Federal Reserve’s Barkin speaking later on Tuesday, 30 May 2023
Pricing has swung back in favour of a June rate hike from the Federal Reserve. The meeting is on the 13th and 14th.1700 GMT/13:00 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat before virtual NABE Monetary...
Turnaround time for the US dollar
AUD/USD had popped higher earlier in the session amongst more broadly based USD weakness: EUR, GBP both gained also.That's all in the past now as the USD has found legs. There is no fresh news nor data to account for the swing. Oil and gold have both joined in, lower...