High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.3050 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
Goldman Sachs’ $86 oil forecast, weighing up supply & demand factors, bank is net bullish
Goldman Sachs commodity analysts take a look at the "risk developments" to their forecast for $86 oil by December 2023.On net, the risk developments ... have been bullish-to-mixed over the past monthThe bullish developments are:The arrival of inventory drawsThe key...
Manufacturing & Services Australian preliminary PMIs for August remain in contraction
Judo Bank / S&P Global flash PMIs for Australia in August 2023 are both poor. Manufacturing and Services remain in contraction for a second consecutive month.Commentary from the report, in brief:a cyclical slowdown in the Australian economy is underway with...
UK Govt transferred over 14bn GBP to the BoE, largest transfer ever, to cover QE losses
The UK Treasury sent over 14.3bn GBP to the Bank of England in July, which is the biggest state transfer on record, to cover losses on the Bank's QE stepstransfers have totalled more than 30 bn GBP in the past 11 monthsNumbers come from the UK's Office for National...
590,000 b/d TMX crude pipeline in Canada will likely start commercial “later” in Q1 2024
Via media reports (Argus) comes news of the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) crude pipeline in western Canada will likely start commercial "later" in the first quarter next yearits entering the final stages of the project a specific in-service date is not...
New Zealand Q2 Retail Sales -1.0% q/q (expected -2.6%)
Consumers have been cutting back in New Zealand in the face of rapid and sustained interest rate hikes. The last two meetings of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have been a bit of a relief with the Bank leaving the cash rate on hold. Retail sales -1.0% q/qexpected...
Swiss gold exports down due to lower shipments to China, India
Data from Switzerland on gold shipments in July: Swiss gold exports fell 2% in July from June exports to China fell by 19% in July to their weakest since May, 2022to India fell by 60% to their lowest level since April, 2023Info via Reuters overnight ICYMI. More here....
ICYMI – US Commerce Department eases export restrictions on 27 Chinese entities
The U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) said Monday that it is removing 27 Chinese entities from its Unverified ListThe companies were taken off the list after they successfully completed end-use checks that allowed the commerce...
Big money EUR/USD triggers for shorts at 1.0810 says UBS
A UBS note nominates a breach of 1.0810 in EUR/USD as a trigger for Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) to shift into short positions. say its a key level of clustered CTA triggers, and three are more if the euro falls below thereUBS say that CTAs are already short kiwi...
Trump plans to ramp up taxes on imports, plus a ‘matching tax’, if elected
The US Presidential election is not until November next year, but jockeying for position is starting. Trump is the frontrunner, easily, he is way out ahead, amongst Republican hopefuls, despite his imminent arrest:Trump on Fox TV promised huge new taxes:reaffirmed his...
BoA see scope for USD resilience to continue, & Fed’s focus to shift from higher to longer
Bank of America analysts like the US dollar, saying they "see scope for the USD's resilience to continue."BoA make some useful points in the note, spanning the dollar and the Federal Reserve:Signs of growth divergence continue to favour the US. pulling up nominal and...
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Euro slumps even as Treasury yields cool
> Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Euro slumps even as Treasury yields cool Session wrap Forex news for North American trading on Aug 22, 2023 <!--> Adam Button Tuesday, 22/08/2023 | 21:00 GMT-0 22/08/2023 | 21:00 GMT-0 --> <!--> Markets:Gold up $3...
TD analysis: Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole – A shift in the Fed’s policy emphasis?
TD Securities anticipates Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming address at Jackson Hole, centered on the theme 'Structural Shifts in the Global Economy', to be of significance for the broader economic community and the markets.Key Expectations:Shift in Policy...
Private oil survey data shows a smaller than expected draw for the headline crude number
The inventory data from the private survey is out now, official data follows Wednesday morning (US time).Via Twitter (or whatever its called now, Stockholm Syndrome or something?)Numbers in the week are in m of bbls--Expectations I had seen centred on:Headline crude...
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist says is mindful of the fall in the NZ dollar
Comments crossing the news wires from the Chief Economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:is mindful of the fall in NZDsays would lower the OCR sooner than we have signalled if there was a more significant slowdown in China than the RBNZ expectsRBNZMoneyMaker FX EA...
US Commerce Sec Raimondo met with China’s Ambassador Xie Feng – ‘productive discussion’
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo met with China's Ambassador Xie Feng.US 'readout': Raimondo and Xie shared a productive discussion ahead of Raimondo’s upcoming trip to Beijing and ShanghaiRaimondo raised issues of importance to the United States and American...
Economic calendar in Asia for Wednesday, 23 August 2023 – flash PMIs kick off
Yikes, those expectations for the PMIs are not a pretty picture, for Australia or Japan. Japan services doesn't have an expectations survey (that I have seen) but I suspect it'll hold up in expansion, so that's a little more encouraging. This snapshot from the...
Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 23 August 2023
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
NASDAQ index squeezes out a modest gain. Dow industrial average and S&P index close lower
The major US indices are closing mixed ahead of Nvidia earnings after the close tomorrow and that Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday.The Dow industrial average and S&P index both closed lower today giving up earlier gains. The NASDAQ index maintained a modest...