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Atlanta Fed GDPNowThe Atlanta for GDPNow model for 2Q growth tumbled to 1.9% from 2.9% previously. In their own words:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.9 percent on May 26, down from 2.9...
Barclays sees the Bank of England on hiking beyond June with additional 25 basis point hike in August for a 5% terminal rate.The Bank of England hiked rates to 4.5% on May 11. The CPI data this week came in higher than expectations at 8.7% versus 8.2%. Moreover, the...
GBP/USD Prices, Charts, and AnalysisGilt yields push sharply higher on renewed UK rate hike expectations.IMF does a 180 on UK growth prospects.Little in the way of UK data next week. Recommended by Nick Cawley How to Trade GBP/USD Get My Guide UK headline inflation...
S&P index tests its 100 week moving averageThe S&P index is trading up 45.11 points or 1.08% at 4196.40. Its high price reached 4202.92. That took the price back above its 100-week moving average at 4200.13. Last week, the price also moved above that moving...
Prior was +3.8%Six-month trimmed mean annualized +4.4%12-month trimmed mean +4.8%This is a one-month annualized measure from the Dallas Fed and highlights another measure of core inflation.The most significant decreases in the PCE are found in the sectors of spectator...
Stoxx 600 dailyA three-day slump in European stocks came to an end today with a strong rebound.Stoxx 600 +1.2%German DAX +1.2%UK FTSE 100 +0.8%French CAC +1.4%Italy MIB +1.2%Spain IBEX +1.0%On the week:Stoxx 600 -1.4%German DAX -1.5%UK FTSE 100 -1.5%French CAC...
March deficit $44.41B vs $25.75B a year earlierCanada's federal government dramatically trimmed its budget deficit in 2022-23 but it still remains far above pre-pandemic levels. The $41.31B deficit for the complete fiscal year compares to $95.57B a year earlier....
Says she may have to revise up her inflation projections in the next SEP in JuneData confirms inflation is still too highPCE inflation underscored slow progressEverything is on the table for June FOMCFed committed to lowering inflation in a timely wayHasn't seen much...
GBPUSD falls back toward lows for the weekThe GBPUSD moved higher in trading today held by better-than-expected retail sales. The price extended up to and through the falling 100-hour moving average currently at 1.23839 (blue line in the chart above). The price also...
The US dollar is at the best levels of the day and has hit multi-month highs against the yen, New Zealand dollar and euro.It increasingly looks like the dollar is breaking out on a technical basis. USD/JPY cut through 1.40 yesterday and is now up to 140.45 with little...
My lead option is to hike rates in June and July; open about subsequent decisions'Very relaxed' about market pricing of ratesUpward momentum in core inflation has slowed by food price pressure still buildingCan achieve target without recessionHe sounds relaxed about...
Sovereign yields have been reeled in despite the hot US PCE data today and that has helped lift global equities. Ahead of the US long weekend, it's the Nasdaq that's leading the way with a 1.3% rally, followed closely by the S&P 500 up 0.9% and Europe's Stoxx 600...
Details:Current conditions 64.9 vs 64.5 prelim (68.2 prior)Expectations 55.4 vs 53.4 prelim (60.5 prior)1-year inflation 4.2% vs 4.5% prelim (4.6% prior)5-10 year inflation 3.1% vs 3.2% prelim (3.0% prior)This is a great report all around, with sentiment not falling...
The major stock indices are moving to the upside in early US trading. The gains are being led by the NASDAQ index up about 0.5%. The Dow Industrial Average is up around 0.25% and trying to snap a 5 day decline. The NASDAQ soared by over 200 points yesterday on the...
The USDJPY dipped to the 50% midpoint of the range since the 2022 high after breaking above that level yesterday. The corrective move dipped just below that level but found buyers ahead of the better-than-expected US data. That data sent the USDJPY back to the upside....
IMF also sees 2024 at 1.1%I find this is one of the saddest charts. It's Italian total real GDP since the start of this century; it's still not back to 2008 levels. In that time, Italian population has grown to 59m from 57m as well, so GDP per capital is even...
The EURUSD was moving higher in pre-data trading with the price moving toward resistance levels on the hourly chart. The US data was largely stronger than expected, turning the USD back to the upside (the EURUSD lower). That move kept the bias pointing to the downside...
The US dollar jumped on a stronger PCE inflation reading as the odds of a June Fed hike crossed 50%.USD/JPY led the way in the rally, hitting a session high of 140.31, to marginally crest yesterday's peak and set a new high for the year. Since then though, it's...
Durable goods increasesPrior 2.8% (revised to 3.3%)U.S. April durable goods orders increased by 1.1%, outperforming the consensus of a 1.0% decrease, and following a 3.3% increase in March (previously reported as 2.8%).Durable goods orders excluding transportation...
Prior was +4.6%PCE core MoM +0.4% vs +0.3% expectedPrior MoM +0.3%Headline inflation PCE +4.4% vs +4.2% priorDeflator MoM +0.4% vs +0.1% priorConsumer spending and income for April:Personal income +0.4% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.3%Personal spending +0.8% vs...