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The dollar is slightly lower on the day but it doesn't take away from the gains so far this week, as the greenback continues to sit in the driver's seat ahead of the US PCE price data later. The technical levels outlined yesterday (as per below) are still very much in...
Uncertainty in inflation dynamics is highECB shouldn't predict where rate hikes will end upHe's not trying to give much away but so far, other policymakers at the ECB have hinted that we should expect rate hikes in June and July with one more in September also up in...
Energy price fall will feed into core prices but timeframe is uncertainThere is some upside risks to wage growthReal wage growth correction has to be a gradual processTwo years ago, they were certain that inflation is just 'transitory'. In 2022, they were certain that...
This was a bad week in terms of economic data for Germany: it started on Tuesday with a contraction in manufacturing PMI for the 11th month in a row (42.9, well below the contraction threshold of 50), in a country where industry is its strong point; it continued with...
It is questionable if we will be able to get to 2% in the next two yearsHonesty is such a rarity in the profession nowadays, so the above comments are certainly a breath of fresh air. But if you really want to look at it in one way, it could be suggestive to mean that...
It will be Memorial Day in the US on Monday and that will see both the stock and bond markets closed. The latter will also close early later today (at 2pm ET), so keep that in mind as we look towards the session ahead.In Europe, it will also be Whit Monday and that is...
The key levels from yesterday (summary post here) are all still holding as the dollar remains in the driver's seat in trading this week. We're seeing a light pullback today but the ranges for most dollar pairs are still relatively narrow. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0740...
Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.4%It's a welcome bounce for French stocks especially after running into support from its 100-day moving average and its key trendline support (as seen below). But it still doesn't take away...
The USDIndex holds the breach of 104.00 on news the US debt ceiling talks are progressing and a 2-year deal is possible. Strong US data yesterday also added to pressure on the FED to hike at least one more time. Susan Collins from the Boston Fed, suggested that a...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Prior -0.9%; revised to -1.2%Retail sales -3.0% vs -2.8% y/y expectedPrior -3.1%; revised to -3.9%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.8% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior -1.0%; revised to -1.4%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -2.6% vs -2.8% y/y expectedPrior -3.2%; revised to...
The dollar continues to stay in control as we look to close out the week and it will be a question of whether the PCE price data will add to the gains in the currency later today. I outlined the moves in the dollar pairs yesterday below:And adding to that, we also...
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the importance of avoiding premature monetary policy tightening, to ensure that Japan can achieve its 2% inflation target on a sustainable basis. Ueda spoke with reporters at the bank’s headquarters in Tokyo in his first group...
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD near 1.0800, which adds to technical resistance and offers at the figure level as well as the 100-day moving average at 1.0815. That might come into play if we do see a notable rebound in...
6/24 (25%) economists expect BOJ to end yield curve control (YCC) this year11/24 economists expect BOJ to end YCC in 20245/24 economists expect BOJ toe end YCC in 2025 or later2/24 economists expect BOJ to not end YCC at all10/24 economists expect BOJ to start scaling...
The dollar continued its run higher this week with a convincing performance yesterday, fueled by higher Treasury yields. Markets are starting to doubt themselves further as to whether the Fed will pause in June, as odds of a rate hike slowly climb. Fed funds futures...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
A quickie note overnight from JPMorgan on their US equity outlook:Even aside from the debt ceiling issue, we maintain that the risk-reward for equities is poor given the elevated risk of recession, stretched valuations, high rates and tightening liquidity, and we...
We had more US debt limit talks Thursday evening US time and headlines to the effect that Biden and McCarthy were ‘near’ a debt limit deal. More on what this entails in the bullet point above. Yesterday Fitch placed the US on negative credit rating watch, today the...
0740 GMT / 03:40 US Eastern time: Member of the Executive Board of ECB Philip R. Lane participates in panel discussion "How quickly will inflation return to target?" at 29th Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik Philip Lane is the Bank's chief economistThe ECB is...