Must create a society where wage hikes become a normMust be mindful of impact of any inflation overshoot on real incomeWell, if Japanese policymakers and lawmakers wanted a boost from wages, they got it already this year. And if they fail to build or capitalise on...
Trade ideas thread – European session 20 July 2023
It looks like the dollar demise may have to be put off until the Fed next week. USD/JPY ran up close to 140.00 on the recovery bounce yesterday before falling back while GBP/USD has declined strongly after the softer UK CPI data yesterday. The latter threatened a drop...
A couple of light releases coming up in Europe later
It's a bit of a choppy week for the dollar in general but on the balance of things, it is keeping somewhat steadier. USD/JPY came close to testing the 140.00 mark yesterday before falling off, now down to 139.30. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is not doing much this week as price...
A double boost for the aussie today
And with good reason, as it is benefiting from a solid labour market report as well as a much stronger Chinese yuan. On the latter, the PBOC moved to ease cross-border funding and also fixed the onshore yuan extremely strongly today.The Chinese central bank actions...
Bank of America lowered their 2023 China GDP forecast to 5.1% from 5.7% previously
> Bank of America lowered their 2023 China GDP forecast to 5.1% from 5.7% previously China Stock Market <!--> --> Eamonn Sheridan Thursday, 20/07/2023 | 03:35 GMT-0 20/07/2023 | 03:35 GMT-0 <!--> --> BoA jumping on board with the GDP projection...
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Reports that China is considering easing mortgages – to help the property sector
Chatter about the place, no further details at this stage but if true would be supportive of risk assets at the margin. The aim would be to spur residential property buying to help prop up the troubled sector.Added - ok here we go, a little more (info via Bloomberg,...
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Two moves from the PBOC sent the yuan surging
The attention on the People’s Bank of China’s loan prime rate (LPR) setting today was misplaced. These, the one- and five-year, were left unchanged as expected. The PBOC instead sent markets into a frenzy with two moves:the Bank set the USD/CNY reference rate more...
Heads up for the final Japan inflation report before next week’s BOJ meeting
Expectations for some sort of policy tweak or change from the Bank of Japan at its 26 and 27 July meeting plunged this week with old reliable, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, tipping a(nother) bucket of cold water on YCC tweak folks:On Friday, tomorrow Tokyo time,...
Over half of surveyed analysts expect a July & September European Central Bank rate hike
Via Reuters, the results of their latest poll on what is expected from the European Central Bank. all 75 analysts surveyed expect a July +25bp rate hike (the meeting is July 27)just over half of those surveyed also expect a September rate hike from the Bank35 of 75...
ICYMI – yuan rocketed higher with the PBOC slamming the fix, and promoting capital inflow
Eyes were on the People's Bank of China Loan Prime Rate setting today:But the PBOC surprised with two moves elsewhere. The reference rate was hit with a huge hammer, the Bank set the rate 700+ points lower than the reported expected:Secondly, the bank eased its...
AUD/USD higher – stronger yuan fix, good jobs report
> AUD/USD higher - stronger yuan fix, good jobs report <!--> --> Eamonn Sheridan Thursday, 20/07/2023 | 01:34 GMT-0 20/07/2023 | 01:34 GMT-0 <!--> --> AUD/USD has jumped higher with supportive news from China (boosting the yuan)And also from...
Australia (June ) Jobs +32.6K (vs. +15K expected) & Unemployment rate 3.5% (vs. 3.6% exp)
Another very solid jobs report from Australia. If the Reserve Bank of Australia is worried about the labour market they really need not be. Unemployment is basically at a 48 year low. More:youth unemployment rate decreased to 7.7%hours worked were +0.3% MoneyMaker FX...
PBOC eases cross-border funding
The macro-prudential adjustment parameter is a multiplier that determines the upper limit of outstanding cross-border financing an institution can have.Has been revised to 1.5, up from 1.25 previously, Statement issued by the People's Bank of China and the State...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7. 1466 (vs. estimate at 7.2233)
People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading...
October is now the month most cited as the likely timing for a BOJ policy change
Some 82% of 50 economists in a Bloomberg survey said they expect the BOJ to leave policy untouched at the July meeting (27 and 28th).Last month almost a third of polled analysts said the central bank would change policy in July.28% of respondents say October is now...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2233 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
Citi, UBS, Daiwa have all come to the defense of Chinese banks after Goldman was critical
Bloomberg (gated) have the report on Citigroup, UBS and Daiwa arguing that Chinese lenders will withstand the strains of bad local government debt and less fee income without cutting dividends. Making the point that Beijing needs payouts from state-owned banks to fund...
Japan data – June exports +1.5% y/y (expected +2.2%) Imports -12.9% y/y (expected -11.3%)
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Citi says gold could go as high as US$2,150 in H1 of 2024
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...