More strong US economic data this week, with Thursday bringing an unexpectedly strong revision:The current Fed Funds target rate is 5 - 5.25%, though probably not for much longer according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing data implies, with a...
New Zealand June Consumer Confidence hits its highest since January 2022
ANZ Roy Morgan New Zealand June Consumer Confidence at 85.5prior was 79.2ANZ point out:still a very low levelThe proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, rose 7 points to -27On inflation expectations in...
USD/JPY at 152 is a possible Bank of Japan intervention trigger – Credit Suisse
Economists at Credit Suisse are looking for (a lot) of upside for USD/JPY ahead, saying interventions is a long way off. The point out that:New BoJ governor Ueda’s dovish stance at his first meeting in charge on 28 April catalysed an 8% USD/JPY rally in the two months...
ICYMI: Brainard said inflation could reach the range of around 2% before 2024 election
Lael Brainard is the Director of the National Economic Council and thus US President Biden's chief economic adviser. She was vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve System prior to this White House job. Brainard spoke on Thursday: inflation has fallen for 11 months in a...
US is expected to further restrict export of Dutch chip making equipment to China
Reuters have the report, citing unnamed sources:The United States and the Netherlands are set to further restrict sales of chipmaking equipment to China, to prevent the technology from being used to strengthen China's military While the Dutch are planning to curb...
Fed’s Bostic says its not clear that inflation will continue to fall in the next 6 months
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
HSBC on AUD/USD: Hawkish RBA supports, China outlook a downside risk though
According to HSBC, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) more hawkish stance compared to the Federal Reserve could cause front-end yield spreads to move further in favor of the AUD. However, the recovery in China and the outlook for Australia's key exports are still...
Economic calendar in Asia 30 June 2023: Japanese inflation data & also China PMIs (June)
The first data of impact is an inflation indicator from Japan, inflation as measured in the Tokyo area. This is regarded as a leading indicator of nationwide inflation but its not a perfect 1 for 1 indication.The previous indications from this data point, for May, had...
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: The strong US data continues
Markets:Gold float at $1907US 10-year yields up 13 bps to 3.84%WTI crude oil up 27-cents to $69.82S&P 500 up 0.4%AUD leads, EUR lagsThe drumbeat of strong US economic data continued on Thursday with a drop in initial jobless claims and a substantial surprise to Q1...
Dow and S&P rise. Nasdaq unchanged in trading today
The major US stock indices are ending the day mixed. The Dow and the S&P both rose, helped by financials. The Nasdaq after a day of trading above and below unchanged, is ending the day unchanged. The final numbers are showing:Dow rose 269.74 points or 0.80% at...
Trade ideas thread – Friday, 30 June 2023
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
I know. I know.. I know. The USDJPY is overbought, but how do you trade it?
I know.... the USDJPY is overbought. The RSI is above the 70 level indicative of an overbought condition in the USDJPY. The RSI in the USDJPY has not been this high since October 2022. The problem is the USDJPY has been overbought over the last 6-7 days. During that...
EURUSD moves back to the 38.2% retracement target. What next?
In an earlier video, I spoke about the corrective move higher and how the sellers had to hold the 1.0896 level. Risk was defined against the level. Sellers could lean with limited exposure. If done, the price has since wandered lower and now tests the next target at...
Fed’s Bostic: Not ready to rule out further rate hikes if required, but does not see need
Fed's Bostic (non-voting) is speaking again: Believes that the effects of monetary policy adjustments that began last year are starting to show up in the real economy, including labor markets.Reiterates he doesn’t see additional Fed rate hikes as neededFed policy in...
WTI crude futures settle at $69.86
The price of WTI crude futures are settling at $69.86 up $0.30 or 0.43%. The high reached $70.60. The low extended to $68.93. The move to session highs saw the price extend back above its 200-hour MA at $70.04 currently (green line in the chart above). However,...
NASDAQ index retests its 100 hour moving average
The Nasdaq index is the weakest of the major stock indices today. The higher yields are weighing on the stocks in the index. Looking at the hourly chart, the index this week moved lower on Monday and in the process broke below the 100-hour MA (blue line). By Tuesday,...
BOE’s Tenreyro: We have seen very little pass through of UK policy tightening
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
BOE Tenreyro:Data could be consistent with slightly slower decline in inflation pressures
The BOE Tenreyro is speaking and saysMy vote to leave bank rate unchanged at my final policy meeting rested on what the latest data implied about the medium term.Forward-looking indicators had pointed towards falls in both pay growth and core-goods inflation over the...
US is close to approving long-range missile systems for Ukraine
The Ukrainian offensive isn't going well and it may be clear to the US and NATO that the equipment they have won't be enough to re-take lost territory and win the war.So the US is upping the ante. The WSJ reports the US is close to approving the transfer of the Army...
AUDUSD consolidates below swing area resistance. 100 hour MA catching up to price.
AUDUSD correct to swing area todayThe AUDUSD has been stepping lower since peaking on June 16. Yesterday the pair:Stayed below the 20200-dayoving average of 0.66904Extended below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the June 1 low as 0.66785.Moved below a swing area...