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Traders continue to vote higher for longer on UK rates

Traders continue to vote higher for longer on UK rates

Here is a comparison of the before and after:A 50 bps rate hike for tomorrow is now seen at roughly 55%, outpacing that of a 25 bps rate hike based on OIS pricing. There's nearly 75 bps worth of rate hikes priced by August and that says that we're now staring at the...

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Pound spike on inflation data fairly short-lived

Pound spike on inflation data fairly short-lived

GBP/USD 1-minute chartCable jumped up to a high of 1.2802 but quickly fell back to pare all of the quick gains in a fall to 1.2765 currently. As mentioned earlier:"Based on OIS pricing, a 25 bps rate hike is 100% priced in for this week and I don't see that changing...

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Hot UK inflation continues to vindicate higher BOE rates

Hot UK inflation continues to vindicate higher BOE rates

Headline annual inflation was unchanged in May at 8.7%, beating estimates, but core annual inflation is seen jumping again to above 7% and here's how that looks:UK core CPI y/y (%)Food prices continue to stay elevated with the annual reading seen up by 18.4%, just...

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UK May CPI +8.7% vs 8.4% y/y expected

UK May CPI +8.7% vs 8.4% y/y expected

Prior +8.7%Core CPI +7.1% vs +6.8% y/y expectedPrior +6.8%There is a slight delay to the data release but the pound is moving higher right off this initial headline. On the month, headline inflation increased by 0.7% and that is higher than the 0.5% estimated as well....

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Trade ideas thread – European session 21 June 2023

Trade ideas thread – European session 21 June 2023

The dollar is holding its ground after last week's fall and equities are struggling slightly as there might be a bit of a risk rotation in play ahead of month-end and quarter-end. That is certainly keeping markets guarded and will make things a bit tricky to navigate...

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FX option expiries for 21 June 10am New York cut

FX option expiries for 21 June 10am New York cut

There aren't any significant expiries that are resting close to where price action is at for the moment. As such, traders will be left to their own devices and will have to lean more on the technicals and the risk mood to gauge trading sentiment today.For more...

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Gold in a bit of a pickle after yesterday’s drop

Gold in a bit of a pickle after yesterday’s drop

Gold (XAU/USD) daily chartWith there looking to be a risk rotation in play (perhaps ahead of month-end/quarter-end), gold is failing to find much comfort despite lower bond yields. The yellow metal dropped by 0.7% yesterday but more importantly, it took out a key...

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Australian leading index -0.27% m/m (prior -0.03%)

Australian leading index -0.27% m/m (prior -0.03%)

Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index for May 2023, main points made by WPAC on their data:The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine...

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