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The full effects of our policy have yet to be feltNearly all policymakers view some further rate hikes this year as appropriateThe labor market remains very tightInflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last yearInflation still has a long way to goIf the...
The Federal Reserve exerted a hawkish pause by skipping a rate hike but raising the terminal rate to 5.6% from 5.1%. That implies 50 more basis points hikes between now and the end of the year.The market which was thinking in terms of no change and the potential for...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
The US dollar is 50-70 pips higher across the board following the FOMC decision.The announcement of no change in rates was largely priced in but what caught the market off guard was a rise in the Fed's dot plot to indicate that the median of policymakers see rates at...
The FOMC dot plot for May 2023 show the median rate at the end of 2023 at 5.6% versus 5.1% in March 2023For 2024, the median fed funds target rate is 4.6% vs 4.3% in MarchFor 2025, the median fed funds target rate is 3.4% vs 3.1% in MarchBelow is the dot plot for June...
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest pace. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter...
Powell AI imageThe Fed previously hiked rates on May 3 to 5.00-5.25%Statement continues to say "inflation remains elevated"Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest paceJob gains have been robust in recent months"Holding the...
Below is a snapshot of the markets ahead of the FOMC rate decision:EURUSD 1.0853USDJPY 139.39GBPUSSD 1.2683USDCHF 0.8978USDCAD 1.3301AUDUSD 0.6814NZDUSD 0.6221DXY 102.75US stocks:Dow industrial average down -154 points at 34058.49S&P index up 6.40 points or 0.15%...
EURUSD buyers are more in control.So what levels are in play through the FOMC rate decision?The EURUSD extended up to - and then through - the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 1.08334 (see green line on the chart above). The price has moved to a high of...
AI imageThe FOMC decision on interest rates is due at 2 pm ET (1800 GMT). Here are five things to watch for:1) No change in ratesIn May, this looked like a close call but just before the Fed blackout hit, a pair of Fed officials offered strong hints about skipping the...
USDCAD trades to new low going back to FebruaryThe USDCAD is trading to a low of 1.32722. That took out the swing low from February 15 at 1.3273 and trades at the lowest level since February 2. The low price for the year was also on February 2 at 1.32613. Move below...
The USDCHF is moving sharply to the downside as sellers take firm control. The pair moved below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the May low. That midpoint level comes in at 0.8983 and is now close risk. On the downside, a swing area between 0.8969 and 0.89769 is...
Shares of Nvidia has reached a new all-time high of $422.76. That took out the high price from May 30 at $419.38. For the trading year, the price is now up 188.26%. The price closed in 2022 at $146.14.Shares of Apple are trading up $0.94 or 0.51% $184.21. That would...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
EURUSD continues its run higherThe dollar selling continues and that includes a move to new highs for the EURUSD.Looking at the 4-hour chart above, the price has now moved above a swing area between 1.08424 and 1.08485 (see video from earlier today). The next target...
USDJPY dailyJP Morgan has recently weighed in on the technical outlook for the USD/JPY currency pair, highlighting potential levels of interest after the pair reached specific targets.According to JP Morgan, USD/JPY experienced a pullback after meeting its...
Prior was -451KGasoline +2108K vs +316K expectedDistillates +2123 vs +1208K expectedRefinery utilization -2.1% vs +0.1% expectedSPR draw of 1.9 million barrelsPrivate oil inventories released late yesterday:Crude +1024KGasoline +2075KDistillates +1394KBrent crude oil...
The NZDUSD has the biggest change of the major currency pairs with a gain of nearly 1%. That move took the price above its 50% midpoint of the move down from the May high at 0.61838, and also above a swing area between 0.6202 and 0.62059. Close support will now be at...
Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that Chian has convened 'urgent' meetings on the economy with business leaders on how to revitalize the economy.Meeting attendees characterized "an "unusually urgent" tone in the meetings, which were described by "people present"....
The Australian and New Zealand dollars are running away with the idea of a longer potential Fed pause, just hours before the latest decision. NZD/USD is up 1.0% and AUD/USD up 0.75% as the pairs rally following softer US producer prices.There may be also something of...