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USDCHF sloppy trading has settled between swing areas.The USDCHF is lower on the day retracing most of the gains seen yesterday when the CHF was the weakest of the major currencies (higher USDCHF). The move higher yesterday stalled near the swing highs from Thursday...
GBPUSD tests say swing area in the upper extremeAs the end of day approaches in Europe, the GBPUSD is trading to new session highs. The pair has moved to a new high at 1.26206 after breaking above 1.2600 with momentum. The price has since moved back toward the 1.2600...
USDCAD weeklyToday was the first day of a three-day gauntlet for FX traders, with the FOMC tomorrow and US retail sales Thursday (along with a PBOC decision). The pound is the big winner today but the Canadian dollar isn't too far behind as it gets some help from a...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
EURUSD bounces off of swing area supportEarlier today, I spoke of the EURUSD 100-day MA holding support after the US CPI. If the level could not hold support, a probing back toward the swing area between 1.0777 and 1.07868 would be the next downside target (see green...
There is no doubt that inflation, whilst beginning to ease off its peak last year, is still far too high relative to our two per cent targetMonetary policy's effects on inflation are not immediate due to transmission lags, necessitating careful economic monitoring to...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
The AUDUSD moved above the 100-day MA on Friday and in doing so, increased the bullish bias. Today, the price low in Asian session held support against that key moving average at 0.67349, giving buyers the "go-ahead" to push to the upside. The US CPI extended the...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
The meeting got underway at 10:30 am ET as scheduledThe market is pricing just a 4.7% chance of a hike, given the miss on headline CPI. The big question now is: How forcefully will Powell push towards hiking again in July. He can't pre-commit given the data...
In the first half of 2023, the world's central banks are at the end of rate hike cycles, leading to a weakened U.S. dollar. The banking crisis threatened to collapse financial markets and still influences them, shaping winning investment strategies. The OctaFX experts...
Over the last 25 years, the ten largest mining companies have seen a cumulative growth in productivity of 1%: a stark contrast to the 15% to 25% increase enjoyed by the manufacturing and business services sector. In a capital-intensive environment with conservative...
The USDCAD tried to extend above its 100-hour moving average yesterday and into the Asian session today (see blue line on the chart below), but rotated back below the key moving average level in the European session today. The US CPI pushed the price lower and below...
It's never straight-forward in the market.The US dollar fell on a soft CPI report but it's come storming back with USD/JPY up to 139.87 from a low of 139.02.The rebound in the dollar mirrors a rise in Treasury yields. US 10-year yields are up 0.5 bps to 3.77% from a...
YThe major US stock indices are moving higher in early US trading after the CPI data came in a little softer than expectations. That should assure the Fed will skip for the 1st time after 10 consecutive hikes saw the central bank raise rates by 500 basis point from...
The EURUSD moved higher after the CPI data so the year on year come down to 4.0% from 4.9% last month. The core measure remain sticky at 5.3% however.The EURUSD moved up to a high of 1.08229. That at the price above the 100-day moving average of 1.08062 and the 38.2%...
S&P 500 dailyUS stocks are set to open higher with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% and Nasdaq futures up 1.0%. Both will be fresh 52-week highs.Stock markets are cheering a benign inflation report and a high likelihood (95% implied) that the Fed will leave rates...
The initial reaction to the CPI is for the dollar to move lower, yields moved lower and the NASDAQ is higher all suggesting a "happy" number for the market. The core/services component is still elevated at 5.3%. But the headline number at 4.0% is likely to be moving...
US CPI yyPriorCPI MoM +0.1% vs +0.2% expectedPrior MoM reading was +0.4%CPI YoY 4.0% vs 4.1% expected.Core CPI MoM +0.4% versus +0.4% expected Core YoY 5.3% versus 5.3% expectedShelter +0.6% versus +0.4% last monthReal weekly earnings -0.1% vs +0.1% prior (revised to...
The odds of a Fed hike tomorrow have dwindled to 21% in a sign that it will take an extraordinarily strong CPI report to change the Fed trajectory.The consensus is 4.1% on the headline and 5.3% on the core and I suspect we would need to see a print at least 0.3...