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Powell opening statement: Further progress on inflation not assured, path uncertain
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Watch live: The press conference from Jerome Powell for May 1, 2024
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Dollar eases slightly, stocks edge up, yields dip after FOMC
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
The full statement from the May 2024 FOMC rate decision.
May 01, 2024Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementFor release at 2:00 p.m. EDTRecent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over...
FOMC decision: Interest rates unchanged, Fed cites lack of further progress on inflation
Prior was 5.25-5.50%QT pace $25 billion vs $60 billion ($30 billion was expected)Economic activity described as 'continued to expand at a solid pace' vs 'expanding at a solid pace' priorJobs gains described as 'have remained strong' vs 'have remained strong'...
What’s priced in for the FOMC ahead of today’s decision
The market is currently priced for 30 bps of Fed easing this year, with the November meeting priced at about 80%. Of course, there are tail risks priced in for later in the year so I'd peg 'what's expected' at closer to no cuts at all.Stretching out to August 2025,...
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 growth estimate dips to 3.3% from 3.9%
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 growth moved to 3.3% from 3.9% in its inaugural model value. In their own words:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.3 percent on May 1, down...
For reference: Here is the March 20 FOMC statement
The FOMC statement from March 20, 2024:Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.The...
Morgan Stanley expects US CPI to surprise to the downside in April
This is worth thinking about as we await the FOMC decision. From Morgan Stanley:We expect inflation data “to reverse to downside surprises in April. .. Several data series indicate a rapid deceleration in rents. .. Financial Services inflation is linked with stock...
AUDUSD corrects higher and tests MA and retracement levels ahead of the FOMC decision.
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Preview: Five things to watch for in the FOMC decision
It's Fed day and the market is nervous.The US dollar has strengthened and equities have sunk on fears the Fed could introduce more-hawkish language. Here is what to watch for:1) How likely are hikes?The market started out the year by pricing in more than 150 basis...
European equity close: UK slides with the continent on holiday
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Surge in construction job openings comes to an end with a sharp tuble lower in March
JOLTs job openings for constructionThe JOLTs job openings declined by -325K in the month of March. Within that report, there was an oversized decline in the Construction sector. More specifically, the construction sector showed a decline of -182K job openings for...
Timiraos: Higher wage growth dashes chance of the Fed setting the stage for a summer cut
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Oil prices fall to a six-week low after US inventory data
US oil inventories are filling ahead of driving season.May is typically the strongest month of the year for WTI crude oil prices as the industry switches from building inventories to drawing them as Americans hit the road. Today's numbers showed there will be more oil...
USDCAD modestly corrects lower after the break higher yesterday. What next?
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
US weekly EIA oil inventories +7265K vs -1100K expected
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EURUSD moves up to test 200 hour moving average. Finds sellers on the first look
The weaker US I sent dated pushed the EURUSD higher and up to the 200-hour moving average target at 1.06897. Also near that level is the underside of the channel trend line that was broken during yesterday's trade. The high price reached 1.06907 just above that target...
Gold buyers make a stand but they’ll need a cooperative Fed
gold dailyGold yesterday fell below last week's low and looked like it could be in store for a deeper correction but buyers reappeared today, lifting it $21 to $2306.Naturally, the focus is on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision later. There is angst throughout...