Session wrap <!--> --> <!--> --> Markets:WTI crude oil up 96-cents to $72.79Gold up $6 to $1946US 10-year yields flat at 3.81%S&P 500 up 1.4%GBP leads, JPY lagsJust the headlines and market summary today folks - have a great weekend!For those in...
Yellen now estimates that debt limit won’t be hit until June 5
AI imageTreasury Secretary Janet Yellen has conjured a few extra days for US politicians to grandstand. She now says that extraordinary measures won't be exhausted until at least June 5.House Republican leader McCarthy has said his deadline is June 1 but you can never...
US stocks rip higher for the second day as Nasdaq closes at highest since August
There were non-stop flows into US stock markets on Friday, led by the Nasdaq:S&P 500 +1.3%Nasdaq Comp +2.2%DJIA +1.0%Russell 2000 +1.1%Toronto TSX Comp +0.8%On the week:S&P 500 +0.3%Nasdaq Comp +2.4%Russell 2000 flatToronto TSX Comp -2.1%Broadcom was a big...
Euro longs retreat in the latest week of CFTC data
The speculative market remains far too long euros but pared back the position in the latest week of CFTC data, in what might be a sign of what's to come. the EUR's net speculative long positioning witnessed a significant decrease, dropping to 173,736 contracts...
Goldman Sachs and BofA see a ‘close call’ on June Fed but market now sees 70% hike odds
AI imageHigher interest rates aren't yet hitting the consumer hard or bringing inflation back to target, according to today's April PCE report. Inflation rose 4.4% y/y in an acceleration from 4.2% previously while personal spending surged 0.8% in the month.Bank of...
Next week is a short one in the US, but it will be a busy one
US non-farm payrolls have beaten the consensus 13 times in a row and the market will try to stretch that unprecendented streak a week from today.Overall, the week promises a number of key economic data releases that could move the market but the week starts quietly on...
USD/JPY has risen in 10 of the past 12 trading days. What’s next
The repricing of Fed hikes higher for longer has been felt in USD/JPY more than anywhere else in the forex market. The pair has risen in 10 of the past 12 trading sessions and one of those declines was only 6 pips.At the moment, the pair is carving out a new high that...
Republican House negotiator says ‘major issues’ still not worked out on debt ceiling
The hardest part of any deal is always at the end. The two sides met virtually today and we're not at the finish line.“We continue to have major issues that we have not bridged the gap on,” Garret Graves said. He was asked if he'd drop demand for work requirements, he...
IMF sees US growth at 1.7% this year and 1.0% in 2024
The IMF is out with its latest review of the US economy and it paints a picture of stumbling growth and inflation slowly returning to target.PCE inflation 3.8% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024Unemployment rate 3.8% in 2023 and 4.4% in 2024Fed funds at end-2024 4.9%Full...
Baker Hughes total rig count down -9 in the current week
Total rigs -9 at 711Oil rigs -5 at 570Natural gas rigs -4 at 137Looking back toward the beginning of the year, the rig count on January 13 showed:Total rigs: 775Oil rigs: 623Gas rigs: 150 Crude oil is trading up $0.68 at $72.51. For the day, the high price reached...
NZDUSD down for the 4th day in a row. Extends through swing area and looks toward 50%.
NZDUSD tumble lower this weekThe NZDUSD has tumbled 3.6% this week with the last 4 trading days to the downside. That is the biggest move lower since September 19, 2022. This week, the RBNZ raise rates by 25 basis points, but the hike was considered dovish as signals...
GOP negotiator McHenry: Cites progress in debt ceiling talks, but…
GOP McHenry is saying that:That debt ceiling talks are progressing, but...Warns that remaining issues become more difficult as more progress is madeDeal needs to be made in next day or 2 or 3.The clock continues to tick, but stock markets remain positive:S&P index...
Atlanta Fed GDPNow tumbles to 1.9%
Atlanta Fed GDPNowThe Atlanta for GDPNow model for 2Q growth tumbled to 1.9% from 2.9% previously. In their own words:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.9 percent on May 26, down from 2.9...
Barclays sees BOE hiking beyond June with one additional 25 basis point hike in August
Barclays sees the Bank of England on hiking beyond June with additional 25 basis point hike in August for a 5% terminal rate.The Bank of England hiked rates to 4.5% on May 11. The CPI data this week came in higher than expectations at 8.7% versus 8.2%. Moreover, the...
British Pound Week Ahead: UK Rates and US Data Will Drive GBP/USD
GBP/USD Prices, Charts, and AnalysisGilt yields push sharply higher on renewed UK rate hike expectations.IMF does a 180 on UK growth prospects.Little in the way of UK data next week. Recommended by Nick Cawley How to Trade GBP/USD Get My Guide UK headline inflation...
S&P index retests its 100 week moving average and backs off. Nasdaq above 100 week MA.
S&P index tests its 100 week moving averageThe S&P index is trading up 45.11 points or 1.08% at 4196.40. Its high price reached 4202.92. That took the price back above its 100-week moving average at 4200.13. Last week, the price also moved above that moving...
Dallas Fed April trimmed mean PCE price index +4.4% vs +3.8% prior
Prior was +3.8%Six-month trimmed mean annualized +4.4%12-month trimmed mean +4.8%This is a one-month annualized measure from the Dallas Fed and highlights another measure of core inflation.The most significant decreases in the PCE are found in the sectors of spectator...
European equity close: A bounce back to close out the week
Stoxx 600 dailyA three-day slump in European stocks came to an end today with a strong rebound.Stoxx 600 +1.2%German DAX +1.2%UK FTSE 100 +0.8%French CAC +1.4%Italy MIB +1.2%Spain IBEX +1.0%On the week:Stoxx 600 -1.4%German DAX -1.5%UK FTSE 100 -1.5%French CAC...
Canadian government fiscal year deficit cut in half
March deficit $44.41B vs $25.75B a year earlierCanada's federal government dramatically trimmed its budget deficit in 2022-23 but it still remains far above pre-pandemic levels. The $41.31B deficit for the complete fiscal year compares to $95.57B a year earlier....
Fed’s Mester: Fed has made slow progress on inflation. It’s concerning
Says she may have to revise up her inflation projections in the next SEP in JuneData confirms inflation is still too highPCE inflation underscored slow progressEverything is on the table for June FOMCFed committed to lowering inflation in a timely wayHasn't seen much...