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US April wholesale inventories -0.2% vs +0.0% expected

US April wholesale inventories -0.2% vs +0.0% expected

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...

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Busy US economic calendar tees up the long weekend

Busy US economic calendar tees up the long weekend

US trading may tail off early today ahead of a three-day weekend but that won't be before some critical pieces of economic data. We get four numbers to start the day at 8:30 am ET (1230 GMT) including:April PCEApril durable goods ordersApril advance goods trade...

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HSBC raises BOE terminal rate forecast to 5.25%

HSBC raises BOE terminal rate forecast to 5.25%

The firm now expects the BOE to hike further in August and September, in addition to June <!--> Justin Low Friday, 26/05/2023 | 11:36 GMT-0 26/05/2023 | 11:36 GMT-0 --> <!--> Well, the calls are coming in now after the UK inflation data this week. In...

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US futures nudge a little higher on the day

US futures nudge a little higher on the day

S&P 500 futures (5 mins)Dow futures are also seen up 0.1% and Nasdaq futures up 0.3% at the moment as we start to see light gains on the session now. In trading yesterday, there was a heavy contrast in the mood in Wall Street. The Dow suffered losses once again...

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Dollar continues to sit a little lower in quiet trading

Dollar continues to sit a little lower in quiet trading

The dollar is slightly lower on the day but it doesn't take away from the gains so far this week, as the greenback continues to sit in the driver's seat ahead of the US PCE price data later. The technical levels outlined yesterday (as per below) are still very much in...

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ECB’s Lane: No sense of certainty on terminal rate

ECB’s Lane: No sense of certainty on terminal rate

Uncertainty in inflation dynamics is highECB shouldn't predict where rate hikes will end upHe's not trying to give much away but so far, other policymakers at the ECB have hinted that we should expect rate hikes in June and July with one more in September also up in...

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ECB’s Lane: Food inflation will reverse later this year

ECB’s Lane: Food inflation will reverse later this year

Energy price fall will feed into core prices but timeframe is uncertainThere is some upside risks to wage growthReal wage growth correction has to be a gradual processTwo years ago, they were certain that inflation is just 'transitory'. In 2022, they were certain that...

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GER40 one step away from highs, German economy in recession

This was a bad week in terms of economic data for Germany: it started on Tuesday with a contraction in manufacturing PMI for the 11th month in a row (42.9, well below the contraction threshold of 50), in a country where industry is its strong point; it continued with...

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ECB’s Vujčić: Inflation momentum is still persistent

ECB’s Vujčić: Inflation momentum is still persistent

It is questionable if we will be able to get to 2% in the next two yearsHonesty is such a rarity in the profession nowadays, so the above comments are certainly a breath of fresh air. But if you really want to look at it in one way, it could be suggestive to mean that...

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Reminder: US markets will be closed on next Monday

Reminder: US markets will be closed on next Monday

It will be Memorial Day in the US on Monday and that will see both the stock and bond markets closed. The latter will also close early later today (at 2pm ET), so keep that in mind as we look towards the session ahead.In Europe, it will also be Whit Monday and that is...

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Dollar mildly lower with PCE price data in focus today

Dollar mildly lower with PCE price data in focus today

The key levels from yesterday (summary post here) are all still holding as the dollar remains in the driver's seat in trading this week. We're seeing a light pullback today but the ranges for most dollar pairs are still relatively narrow. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0740...

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European equities kick start the day on better footing

European equities kick start the day on better footing

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.4%It's a welcome bounce for French stocks especially after running into support from its 100-day moving average and its key trendline support (as seen below). But it still doesn't take away...

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France May consumer confidence 83 vs 84 expected

France May consumer confidence 83 vs 84 expected

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...

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UK April retail sales +0.5% vs +0.3% m/m expected

UK April retail sales +0.5% vs +0.3% m/m expected

Prior -0.9%; revised to -1.2%Retail sales -3.0% vs -2.8% y/y expectedPrior -3.1%; revised to -3.9%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.8% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior -1.0%; revised to -1.4%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -2.6% vs -2.8% y/y expectedPrior -3.2%; revised to...

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Trade ideas thread – European session 26 May 2023

Trade ideas thread – European session 26 May 2023

The dollar continues to stay in control as we look to close out the week and it will be a question of whether the PCE price data will add to the gains in the currency later today. I outlined the moves in the dollar pairs yesterday below:And adding to that, we also...

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