Its going to be a light data agenda during the Asian session for today. I've stuck a box around one thing that'll come later from China. Justin will pick it up. FX reserves data include data on gold purchases, which is much awaited. The People's Bank of China (PBOC)...
Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 7 January, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Crude oil settles at $73.56
Crude oil futures are settling at $73.56 which is down -$0.40 or -0.54%. The high price today reached $74.96. That high was within shouting distance of the falling 200-day moving average is $75.34 ($0.38). The price has not traded above the 200-day average since...
How Bank of America sees the China trade unfolding in 2025
Bank of America writes about its China outlook for the year ahead and says:"We advise investors to stay vigilant, start defensive (high yield value) in early 2025, and add quality beta on major corrections and/or strong stimulus. If credit growth accelerates notably...
Bitcoin back above $100,000. What next technically speaking?
The price of Bitcoin fell below a swing area and 38.2% retracement between $92,092 and $92,442 and did the same thing on December 31. Both breaks failed.The inability to extend and stay below that level gave buyers a reason to buy technically. The price started to...
US equities lose altitude after a strong start
There has been a round trip in a number of risk assets on the Trump tariff story and the subsequent denial. Stock markets have largely held up but that could be changing as we enter the latter parts of the day.The S&P 500 is up 33 points to 5975 after rising as...
EURUSD confined in a narrow range after sharp run higher stalls. What next for the pair?
The EURUSD moved sharply higher earlier today helped by the Washington Post article on the Trump tariffs. The news was more dovish and less inflationary and the USD and yields moved lower.For the EURUSD the pair extended above the 100 hour MA (at 1.03403), 200 hour MA...
WTI crude oil rejects $75 in a reversal
The week started strong for the oil market on global growth hopes after the WaPo report downplayed Trump's tariff ambitions. But crude ran into sellers right at the $75.00 level and then Trump denied the report.That meant that $74.99 marked the high for the day for...
The gloomy start to the year for China continues with today’s reversal
US-listed China ETFs are struggling today, erasing earlier gains. There was some optimism on the report about Trump softening tariffs but the President-elect later denied that report and China is back in the doldrums.The MCHI ETF is now 2% lower and at the worst...
US sells 3-year notes at 4.332% vs 4.320% WI
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Deutsche Bank takes a crack at decoding Trump’s strategy
FX analysts at Deutsche Bank today highlight three political developments:The WaPo article highlighting a narrowing of tariffs (and Trump's denial)Trump's preference for "one big beautiful bill"Trump's plan to finance tax cuts with tariffsThis year will defined in...
Lots of up and down volatility in USDCAD as politics in Canada and US dominate
The USDCAD has had a volatile trading today as tariff news from Pres.-elect Trump sent the dollar lower and then higher, and word of the resignation of Canada PM Trudeau also contributed. Technically, the price moved lower on the tariff news taking the pair below a...
European equity close: Great start to the week outside the UK
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
The bond market is sniffing out that the deficit won’t be a priority
US 10 year yields dailyUS 10-year yields are up 3.5 bps to 4.63% and verging on the highest levels since April.I'm watching the signals coming out of Congress very closely and gauging the market's reaction. As I've long written, the three economic priorities of Trump...
A technical look at the AUDUSD & the NZDUSD. What levels are defining risk, bias & targets
In the video above, I take a look at both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Both pairs moved lower into the yearend reaching new lows for the year on the very last day of the calendar year. In the first few days of 2025, the price has moved higher with strong gains earlier today...
Trudeau says he will resign as Liberal Party leader. Parliament prorogued until March 24
Canada's Prime Minister announced that he intends to step down, as previously reported.Highlights:Says Governor General agreed House of Parliament will be prorogued until March 24Process will begin to select a new Liberal leaderRemoving me should decrease the level of...
Fed’s Barr will resign from banking supervision role in February but will stay as governor
The Fed's top bank regulator will leave his post on Feb 28, rather than fighting to keep his position, as he previously indicated. In a statement, he said that a 'dispute' over his position could be a distraction.However Barr says that he will remain as a Fed Governor...
Trudeau will seek to progrogue parliament until March 24 – report
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
USDCHF swings with the Trump news. Trades between the 100 and 200 hour MAs
The USD/CHF pair experienced a sharp drop following a Washington Post article reporting that Trump is considering global tariffs targeting only "critical materials." This news pushed the pair below its 100-hour moving average at 0.9072 and its 200-hour moving average...
NASDAQ Price Prediction Today
NASDAQ Price Prediction and Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Today. Do not short yet...The NASDAQ 100 E-mini futures were up already by over 1.5% today, its high so far near 21,850 at the time of this analysis. This strong performance reflects growing optimism in the...